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Olin Corporation (OLN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Chemicals

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $27.07: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Olin Corporation is a vertically integrated chemical and ammunition manufacturer with three segments: Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls (54% of 2025 sales), Epoxy (20%), and Winchester ammunition (26%). It generates ~32% of revenues internationally and approximately 13% from U.S.... Read more

$27.07+5.2% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#6 of 10 Chemicals
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield15.84%
IncomeYield2.96%(5y avg 2.09%)Payout173.91%at-risk
Stop $25.18Target $28.47(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$29.00+7.1%14 analysts
$28.47our TP
$27.07price
$29.00mean
$22
$37

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $27.07: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Olin Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-6.8% upside)
Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)29.1
Mkt Cap$3.1B
EV/EBITDA11.9
Profit Mgn-2.8%
ROE-9.8%
Rev Growth-3.7%
Beta1.21
Dividend2.96%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.71neutral
IV57%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerU.S. government agencies13%
    10-K Item 1: 'Sales to all U.S. government agencies and sales under U.S. government contracting activities in total accounted for approximately 13% of sales in 2025.'
  • MEDIUMSupplierpropellant supplier
    10-K Item 1: "Winchester's other main raw material is propellant, which is purchased predominantly from one of the U.S.'s largest propellant suppliers."

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-30Item 5.02LOW
    Olin shareholders approved the 2026 Long Term Incentive Plan on April 30, 2026; compensatory arrangements for officers updated. No officer departures or appointments reported.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.1
Moat
2.5
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
5.1
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
2.0
Volume
2.4
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Obv
5.7
Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $25.57Resistance $29.05

Price Targets

$25
$28
A.Upside+5.2%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.8% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OLN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $27.07: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $25.18. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OLN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $28.47 (+5.2% upside). Prior stop was $25.18. Stop-loss: $25.18.

What are the risks of investing in OLN?

Target reached (-6.8% upside); Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0).

Is OLN overvalued or undervalued?

Olin Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 29.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OLN?

20 analysts cover OLN with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $29.

What does Olin Corporation do?Olin Corporation is a vertically integrated chemical and ammunition manufacturer with three segments: Chlor Alkali...

Olin Corporation is a vertically integrated chemical and ammunition manufacturer with three segments: Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls (54% of 2025 sales), Epoxy (20%), and Winchester ammunition (26%). It generates ~32% of revenues internationally and approximately 13% from U.S. government agencies, with no single customer exceeding 10% of sales.

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