Olin Corporation is a chemical producer trading below minimum quality thresholds with zero scores on return on equity, gross margin, and net margin, yet carries a PEG of 0.17 and elevated short interest of 14% alongside a put/call ratio of 1.95, suggesting the market is deeply skeptical of a margin recovery that analysts are pricing in.
Thesis pillars
- High Implied Volatility Uncertainty→Stable
- Margin Collapse Quality Failure→Stable
- Elevated Short And Put Call→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Olin Corporation (OLN) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup · Sector Rotation edge
Basic Materials · Chemicals
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.03: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 2.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.67; Below-average business quality.
Olin Corporation manufactures chemicals and ammunition through three segments: Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls (54% of 2025 sales), Winchester ammunition (26%), and Epoxy (20%), operating across the U.S., Europe, and Latin America. Revenue comes from chemical sales to... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.03: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 2.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.67; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-15Recent Developments — Olin Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Rep. Lisa McClain Has Bought Up to $225K Worth Of CACI International Stock: Here’s What You Should Know — benzinga Oct 13, 2026 neutral
- NEWS RBC Capital Maintains Sector Perform on Olin, Lowers Price Target to $16 — benzinga Oct 13, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Barclays Initiates Coverage On Olin with Equal-Weight Rating, Announces Price Target of $18 — benzinga Oct 13, 2026
- NEWS Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts Spotlight On 3 Materials Stocks Delivering High-Dividend Yields — benzinga Oct 13, 2026 neutral
- NEWS UBS Maintains Neutral on Olin, Lowers Price Target to $18 — benzinga Oct 5, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-10-15T11:47:13Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerU.S. government13%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to all U.S. government agencies and sales under U.S. government contracting activities in total accounted for approximately 13% of sales in 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-30Item 5.02LOWOn April 30, 2026, Olin shareholders approved the 2026 Long Term Incentive Plan (2026 LTIP), effective immediately, authorizing equity compensation grants to directors, officers, and key employees. No officer departure involved.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.03: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 2.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.67; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $14.20. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $17.83 (+18.6% upside). Prior stop was $14.20. Stop-loss: $14.20.
Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0).
Olin Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 27.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover OLN with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $20.
What does Olin Corporation do?Olin Corporation manufactures chemicals and ammunition through three segments: Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls (54% of...
Olin Corporation manufactures chemicals and ammunition through three segments: Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls (54% of 2025 sales), Winchester ammunition (26%), and Epoxy (20%), operating across the U.S., Europe, and Latin America. Revenue comes from chemical sales to industrial customers and distribution to commercial and military ammunition buyers; approximately 32% of 2025 sales were international.