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OLEDUniversal Display CorporationSell5.0·$78.70-5.24%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Universal Display Corporation generates strong margins of 34% and ranks best-in-class among peers, with analysts projecting 38% upside from current levels, but revenue is declining 14% year-over-year and the company faces high concentration among three customers — BOE, LG Display, and SDC — limiting pricing power.

Thesis pillars

  • Customer Concentration RiskStable
  • Revenue Decline HeadwindStable
  • Best In Class MarginsStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Universal Display Corporation (OLED) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Electronic Components

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $78.70 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: BOE, LG Display and SDC; Concentration risk — Supplier: PPG.

Universal Display Corporation develops and licenses phosphorescent OLED (PHOLED) materials and technologies for display and lighting manufacturers globally, holding more than 7,000 patents issued and pending. Revenue comes from material sales to and patent/know-how licensing... Read more

$78.70+41.0% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#23 of 29 Electronic Components
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.51%
IncomeYield2.54%(5y avg 0.96%)Payout41.20%sustainable
Stop $74.84Target $110.97(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.9:1
Analyst target$127.56+62.1%9 analysts
$110.97our TP
$78.70price
$127.56mean
$168

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $78.70 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: BOE, LG Display and SDC; Concentration risk — Supplier: PPG. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Universal Display Corporation

About Universal Display Corporation

Universal Display Corporation's commercial revenue in 2025 flowed predominantly from three Asia-Pacific customers — BOE Technology Group, LG Display, and Samsung Display (SDC) — each individually exceeding 10% of consolidated revenue and together representing a majority of total sales. The company held more than 7,000 issued and pending patents worldwide as of the filing date, and manufacturing of its proprietary PHOLED emitter materials was performed entirely by partner PPG Industries under an arrangement spanning more than 25 years.

Universal Display generates revenue through two interdependent streams: sales of phosphorescent emitter and host materials manufactured by PPG and sold on a just-in-time basis to OLED device makers, and non-exclusive patent and know-how licensing fees under which customers pay fixed fees and/or running royalties tied to their sales of licensed OLED displays and lighting products. Commercial supply agreements typically impose minimum purchase obligations — either annual volume floors or a minimum percentage of each customer's total purchasing requirements — providing a partial volume floor. The company does not manufacture finished OLED displays; instead it licenses device architecture and sells the key emissive materials, concentrating value in its IP layer. Competitors with overlapping claims include LG group companies (holders of former Kodak OLED assets), CDT (acquired by Sumitomo in 2007), Idemitsu Kosan, and Mitsubishi Chemical, while customers SDC and LG Display also hold patents in adjacent OLED device and materials areas.

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Universal Display's material supply chain is entirely dependent on PPG Industries, described as a sole manufacturing partner for more than 25 years with proprietary processes and know-how, with no alternate manufacturer named in the filing. Additionally, certain fundamental phosphorescent OLED patents expired in the U.S. in 2017 and 2019, and in other countries in 2018 and 2020; the 10-K explicitly acknowledges that subsequent patents in the portfolio "may not be of an equally essential nature," which could weaken the company's licensing position if competitors develop non-infringing PHOLED or competing emitter designs.

See also: Technology · Electronic Components

From Universal Display Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202627d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Analyst upside: 41%
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: BOE, LG Display and SDC
Concentration risk — Supplier: PPG
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.5
P/E (Fwd)15.9
Mkt Cap$3.7B
EV/EBITDA11.8
Profit Mgn34.1%
ROE12.7%
Rev Growth-14.5%
Beta1.54
Dividend2.54%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.20bullish
IV65%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerBOE, LG Display and SDC
    10-K Item 1: 'we received a majority of our revenue from three customers ... BOE, LG Display and SDC, from each of which we had revenue in excess of 10%'
  • HIGHSupplierPPG
    10-K Item 1: 'Our manufacturing partner of over 25 years, PPG, continues to manufacture our materials for us, using proprietary manufacturing processes and know-how'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume
3.9
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Revenue shrinking — -14.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
4.1
Declining revenue: -14%
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 27d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Speculative
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $77.15Resistance $93.60

Price Targets

$75
$111
A.Upside+41.0%
A.R:R3.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (27d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OLED stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $78.70 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: BOE, LG Display and SDC; Concentration risk — Supplier: PPG. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $74.84. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OLED stock price target?

Take-profit target: $110.97 (+41.0% upside). Prior stop was $74.84. Stop-loss: $74.84.

What are the risks of investing in OLED?

Concentration risk — Customer: BOE, LG Display and SDC; Concentration risk — Supplier: PPG; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

Is OLED overvalued or undervalued?

Universal Display Corporation trades at a P/E of 17.5 (forward 15.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OLED?

17 analysts cover OLED with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $128.

What does Universal Display Corporation do?Universal Display Corporation develops and licenses phosphorescent OLED (PHOLED) materials and technologies for display...

Universal Display Corporation develops and licenses phosphorescent OLED (PHOLED) materials and technologies for display and lighting manufacturers globally, holding more than 7,000 patents issued and pending. Revenue comes from material sales to and patent/know-how licensing agreements with device makers including Samsung Display, LG Display, and BOE, with all material manufacturing performed by long-term partner PPG Industries.

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