Kopin Corporation shows a highly favorable modeled asymmetry with 70.1% upside against 15% downside, but quality sits below the engine's floor with a red-flagged earnings-quality warning of -2105% FCF/NI conversion, notable insider selling of $1.8 million, and a run of earnings misses, all under a speculative classification following a 41% drawdown from its 52-week high.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Quality Red Flag→Stable
- High Asymmetry Upside→Stable
- Notable Insider Selling→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Apr 13, 2026· older than 90 days
Kopin Corporation (KOPN) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.35: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 7.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.06; Below-average business quality.
Kopin Corporation designs and manufactures microdisplay technologies -- AMLCD, LCOS, OLED and emerging MicroLED displays -- along with optics, electronics and application-specific subsystems (ASOS) for defense, industrial, medical and consumer markets, including thermal weapon... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.35: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 7.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.06; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
About Kopin Corporation
About Kopin Corporation
Kopin generated $39.3 million in total revenue for fiscal year 2025, down from $50.3 million in 2024, with defense sales excluding R&D contracts comprising 74% of that total (down from 82% a year earlier) as the company works to diversify into industrial and medical microdisplay applications. Kopin supplies microdisplays and application-specific optical subsystems for programs including the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter and the Family of Weapon Sights, alongside named customers Collins Aerospace and DRS Network & Imaging Systems.
Kopin earns revenue from selling microdisplay components and integrated headset subsystems alongside customer-funded development contracts, the latter accounting for 12% of total revenue in both 2025 and 2024. Manufacturing is split by technology: AMLCD circuits are fabricated at a Taiwanese foundry before final assembly in Westborough, Massachusetts; LCOS displays are completed at the company's Dalgety Bay, Scotland facility; and OLED displays are deposited at Chinese, Korean or European foundries before final assembly. Kopin holds roughly 200 patents covering its microdisplay and optics portfolio and licenses headset reference designs to industrial customers such as HMDmD for royalty income. Fixed-price defense contracts, including Indefinite Delivery, Indefinite Quantity arrangements, expose the company to cost-overrun risk if raw material or labor costs -- including for the semiconductor components it has experienced shortages of -- rise faster than contracted prices.
Show full overview
Kopin's 10-K discloses that it depends principally on a single Taiwanese foundry for the integrated circuits used in its AMLCD defense displays, with additional reliance on Chinese, Korean and European foundries for OLED production -- concentrations the company is working to reduce by shifting OLED deposition steps to European partners to meet U.S. Department of War source-of-supply requirements. That supply concentration compounds a customer concentration: 74% of fiscal 2025 revenue came from defense sales, with named customers Collins Aerospace and DRS Network & Imaging Systems, leaving Kopin exposed to both foundry disruption and defense budget volatility simultaneously.
See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
From Kopin Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 4, 2026Recent Developments — Kopin Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Kopin Corporation to Host Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call — fiscal.ai Nov 4, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Kopin Corporation Scheduled to Announce Q3 2026 Financial Results — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Kopin Corporation Receives Two Major Honors at 2026 Massachusetts Manufacturing Mash-Up — fiscal.ai Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Kopin Corporation Releases White Paper on Neural I/o™ Technology for AI Data Centers — fiscal.ai Oct 20, 2026 positive
- NEWS Fabric.AI and Kopin Model Up to 60% Increase in GPU Utilization in Neural I/o™-Powered Data Center — fiscal.ai Oct 19, 2026 positive
Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:39:30Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerdefense sales74%10-K Item 1: 'In fiscal year 2025, defense sales (excluding R&D contracts) accounted for 74% of total revenue, down from 82% in 2024'
- MEDIUMCustomerCollins Aerospace and DRS Network & Imaging Systems10-K Item 1: 'Our primary market is defense, with significant customers including Collins Aerospace and DRS Network & Imaging Systems LLC.'
- HIGHSupplierTaiwanese foundry10-K Item 1A: 'We depend principally on a Taiwanese foundry for the fabrication of integrated circuits for our AMLCD defense display products.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-28Item 5.02LOWKopin's 2026 Annual Meeting stockholders approved an amendment and restatement of the 2020 Equity Incentive Plan, increasing shares available for issuance and extending the plan's term, previously approved by the Board on April 16, 2026.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-28Item 5.07LOWAt Kopin's May 21, 2026 Annual Meeting, stockholders elected five directors -- Jill J. Avery, Michael Murray, David Nieuwsma, Margaret Seif and Paul Walsh Jr. -- each to a term expiring at the 2027 Annual Meeting.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Volatile — 8.9% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.35: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 7.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.06; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $3.12. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $7.33 (+118.9% upside). Prior stop was $3.12. Stop-loss: $3.12.
Concentration risk — Customer: defense sales (74.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Taiwanese foundry; Cyclical trap - fwd PE infx vs trail 84x (infx).
Kopin Corporation trades at a P/E of 83.8 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts rate KOPN, with a consensus score of 4.2/5. 7 analysts publish price targets averaging $8.
What does Kopin Corporation do?Kopin Corporation designs and manufactures microdisplay technologies -- AMLCD, LCOS, OLED and emerging MicroLED...
Kopin Corporation designs and manufactures microdisplay technologies -- AMLCD, LCOS, OLED and emerging MicroLED displays -- along with optics, electronics and application-specific subsystems (ASOS) for defense, industrial, medical and consumer markets, including thermal weapon sights, pilot helmets and surgical headsets. Defense sales, excluding R&D contracts, made up 74% of the company's $39.3 million in total fiscal 2025 revenue, down from 82% in 2024 as Kopin pursues industrial and medical diversification.