Exceptional 39% year-over-year revenue growth and three consecutive recent earnings beats are credible positives, but 76.6% product concentration in optical communications, negative free cash flow conversion, and momentum below the minimum threshold combine to make the current setup unattractive for new positions.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Revenue Growth→Stable
- High Product Concentration Risk↑Improving
- Negative Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Fabrinet (FN) Stock Analysis
Technology · Electronic Components
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $407.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: optical communications products (76.6%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Thailand (manufacturing footprint).
Fabrinet provides advanced optical packaging and precision optical, electro-mechanical, and electronic manufacturing services to OEM customers in optical communications, automotive, industrial lasers, medical devices, and sensors, often serving as its customers' sole outsourced... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $407.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: optical communications products (76.6%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Thailand (manufacturing footprint). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-05Recent Developments — Fabrinet
Latest news
- NEWS Victory RS Small Cap Growth Fund's Fabrinet(FN) Holding History - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS Fabrinet (FN) price target increased by 14.58% to 677.22 - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS Fabrinet stock lags AI peers despite strong gro... - Pluang — Pluang negative
- NEWS Fabrinet: A Compelling AI Infrastructure Opportunity (NYSE:FN) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Fabrinet (NYSE:FN) Shares Gap Up - Here's What Happened - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
Generated 2026-09-06T08:07:02Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomersmall number of customers10-K Item 1A: 'Our sales depend on a small number of customers.'
- HIGHProductoptical communications products77%10-K Item 1: 'Our percentage of revenues from optical communications products decreased from 79.4% in fiscal year 2024 to 76.6% in fiscal year 2025'
- HIGHGeographicThailand (manufacturing footprint)10-K Item 1: 'approximately 3.3 million square feet are located in Thailand and the remaining balance is located in the People’s Republic of China'
- HIGHSuppliersingle-source or limited suppliers (critical materials)10-K Item 1A: 'We purchase some of the critical materials used in certain of our products from a single source or a limited number of suppliers.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $407.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: optical communications products (76.6%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Thailand (manufacturing footprint). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $638.68 (+56.9%), stop $378.88 (−7.4%), A.R:R 4.1:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $638.68 (+56.8% upside). Target $638.68 (+56.9%), stop $378.88 (−7.4%), A.R:R 4.1:1. Stop-loss: $378.88.
Concentration risk — Product: optical communications products (76.6%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Thailand (manufacturing footprint); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0).
Fabrinet trades at a P/E of 30.3 (forward 18.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Hold.
19 analysts cover FN with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $734.
What does Fabrinet do?Fabrinet provides advanced optical packaging and precision optical, electro-mechanical, and electronic manufacturing...
Fabrinet provides advanced optical packaging and precision optical, electro-mechanical, and electronic manufacturing services to OEM customers in optical communications, automotive, industrial lasers, medical devices, and sensors, often serving as its customers' sole outsourced manufacturing partner. The company generated $3.42 billion in revenue for fiscal 2025, up 18.6% from $2.88 billion in fiscal 2024, with optical communications products contributing 76.6% of revenue (down from 79.4% the prior year) as automotive, industrial lasers, and other markets grew to 23.4%. Fabrinet operates appro