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OGCOceanaGold CorporationBuy Wait7.2·$23.84+1.27%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

OceanaGold combines best-in-class profitability and a very low PEG ratio with a recent earnings-miss streak and a news-driven downgrade, leaving the setup caught between a strong quality story and near-term execution risk.

Thesis pillars

  • News Driven Verdict DowngradeStable
  • Growth Adjusted Cheap ValuationStable
  • Revenue Growth SurgeStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

OceanaGold Corporation (OGC) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Wait for pullback to $21.35. BUY gates pass at $23.84, but consecutive earnings misses (2) argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $21.35 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

OceanaGold Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and operation of gold and gold/copper mines in the United States, the Philippines, and New Zealand. It explores for gold, copper, and silver deposits. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in... Read more

$23.84+14.5% A.UpsideScore 7.2/10#10 of 41 Gold
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield14.46%
IncomeYield1.02%(5y avg 1.07%)Payout5.49%sustainable
Entry $21.35(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $19.14Target $26.02(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Wait for pullback to $21.35. BUY gates pass at $23.84, but consecutive earnings misses (2) argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $21.35 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Value play: 52% MoS with quality 8.8. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 7.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-25
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202611d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong overall score: 7.2/10
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.2
P/E (Fwd)
Mkt Cap$5.3B
EV/EBITDA3.9
Profit Mgn33.7%
ROE34.6%
Rev Growth98.5%
Beta1.50
Dividend1.02%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C3.67bearish
IV67%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·3 ceiling hits

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
6.8
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MEarnings in 11 days
GatesA.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 11d<=14d (soft)Momentum 6.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $21.90Resistance $26.55

Price Targets

$19
$21
$26
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.6%
Max %1.1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (11d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OGC stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $21.35. BUY gates pass at $23.84, but consecutive earnings misses (2) argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $21.35 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Value play: 52% MoS with quality 8.8. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $26.02 (+9.1%), stop $19.14 (−24.6%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 7.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OGC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $26.02 (+14.5% upside). Target $26.02 (+9.1%), stop $19.14 (−24.6%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $19.14.

What are the risks of investing in OGC?

Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is OGC overvalued or undervalued?

OceanaGold Corporation trades at a P/E of 7.2 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 9.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about OGC?

15 analysts cover OGC with a consensus score of 4.0/5.

What does OceanaGold Corporation do?OceanaGold Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and operation of gold and gold/copper mines in the...

OceanaGold Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and operation of gold and gold/copper mines in the United States, the Philippines, and New Zealand. It explores for gold, copper, and silver deposits. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Related stocks: KGC (Kinross Gold Corporation) · GFI (Gold Fields Limited) · AU (AngloGold Ashanti PLC) · FSM (Fortuna Mining Corp.) · CGAU (Centerra Gold Inc.)
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