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OGCOceanaGold CorporationBuy Wait7.2·$30.59-0.52%
Buy WaitHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

OceanaGold combines best-in-class profitability and a very low PEG ratio with a recent earnings-miss streak and a news-driven downgrade, leaving the setup caught between a strong quality story and near-term execution risk.

Thesis pillars

  • News Driven Verdict DowngradeImproving
  • Growth Adjusted Cheap ValuationStable
  • Revenue Growth SurgeStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

OceanaGold Corporation (OGC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitValueGrowthQualityHigh Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Wait for pullback to $25.99. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $30.59. Engine's entry $25.99 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

OceanaGold Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and operation of gold and gold/copper mines in the United States, the Philippines, and New Zealand. It explores for gold, copper, and silver deposits. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in... Read more

$30.59+12.6% A.UpsideScore 7.2/10#1 of 42 Gold
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield10.23%
IncomeYield0.98%(5y avg 1.07%)Payout6.37%sustainable
Entry $25.99(support + ATR (held))Stop $23.18Target $31.26(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Wait for pullback to $25.99. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $30.59. Engine's entry $25.99 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Value play: 49% MoS with quality 8.9. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 7.2/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202661d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.9 in RISK_OFF)
Strong overall score: 7.2/10
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.7
P/E (Fwd)
Mkt Cap$6.8B
EV/EBITDA4.4
Profit Mgn35.1%
ROE37.3%
Rev Growth49.7%
Beta1.54
Dividend0.98%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.63bullish
IV47%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·3 ceiling hits

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
6.8
Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
GatesMomentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Momentum 4.6>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 61d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $27.05Resistance $31.90

Price Targets

$23
$26
$31
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier -1: STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (61d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OGC stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $25.99. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $30.59. Engine's entry $25.99 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Value play: 49% MoS with quality 8.9. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $31.26 (+2.2%), stop $23.18 (−32.0%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 7.2/10, high confidence.

What is the OGC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $31.26 (+12.6% upside). Target $31.26 (+2.2%), stop $23.18 (−32.0%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $23.18.

What are the risks of investing in OGC?

Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is OGC overvalued or undervalued?

OceanaGold Corporation trades at a P/E of 7.7 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 9.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about OGC?

15 analysts cover OGC with a consensus score of 4.0/5.

What does OceanaGold Corporation do?OceanaGold Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and operation of gold and gold/copper mines in the...

OceanaGold Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and operation of gold and gold/copper mines in the United States, the Philippines, and New Zealand. It explores for gold, copper, and silver deposits. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Related stocks: ARIS (Aris Mining Corporation) · KGC (Kinross Gold Corporation) · IAG (Iamgold Corporation) · GFI (Gold Fields Limited) · MAKO (Mako Mining Corp)
Home Stocks OGC

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