Value
9.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.5 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸PEG: 0.07
- ▸Attractively valued
OGC · Why this verdict
Why OceanaGold (OGC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score7.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
OceanaGold combines best-in-class profitability and a very low PEG ratio with a recent earnings-miss streak and a news-driven downgrade, leaving the setup caught between a strong quality story and near-term execution risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A negative news event downgraded the actionable recommendation from an immediate buy to a wait-and-see stance, and options positioning shows an elevated put/call ratio of 2.00. Warnings | The put/call ratio normalizes back below 1.0 as bearish options positioning unwinds. | →Stable |
| CounterA sustained news-driven downgrade combined with elevated options hedging could foreshadow a more durable de-rating rather than a temporary pause. | ||
The stock carries a PEG ratio of just 0.06, suggesting the market has not priced in the company's growth. Valuation breakdown | PEG ratio stays below 0.5 even as the stock re-rates higher. | →Stable |
| CounterAn extremely low PEG in a cyclical gold miner often reflects the market discounting peak-cycle earnings rather than a genuine mispricing. | ||
Revenue grew 98% year-over-year, reflecting a dramatic operational or gold-price tailwind. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 30% YoY for the next two reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA 98% YoY growth rate is likely inflated by a low prior-year base or one-time gold-price gains and is unlikely to persist. | ||
OceanaGold posts a 35% ROE and 34% margins, with a wide economic moat and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, reflecting a business that has compounded strong returns and growth over time. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 25% and margins hold above 25% over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterGold miner margins are highly sensitive to commodity prices; a pullback in gold prices could quickly compress the current 34% margin. | ||
The company has missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of -44%, undercutting the bull case on execution. Earnings | The earnings surprise streak returns to positive with 2 or more consecutive beats. | ↑Improving |
| CounterEarnings misses in a volatile commodity business can result from one-off gold-price swings rather than a structural deterioration. | ||
A negative news event downgraded the actionable recommendation from an immediate buy to a wait-and-see stance, and options positioning shows an elevated put/call ratio of 2.00.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio normalizes back below 1.0 as bearish options positioning unwinds.
CounterA sustained news-driven downgrade combined with elevated options hedging could foreshadow a more durable de-rating rather than a temporary pause.
The stock carries a PEG ratio of just 0.06, suggesting the market has not priced in the company's growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- PEG ratio stays below 0.5 even as the stock re-rates higher.
CounterAn extremely low PEG in a cyclical gold miner often reflects the market discounting peak-cycle earnings rather than a genuine mispricing.
Revenue grew 98% year-over-year, reflecting a dramatic operational or gold-price tailwind.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 30% YoY for the next two reported quarters.
CounterA 98% YoY growth rate is likely inflated by a low prior-year base or one-time gold-price gains and is unlikely to persist.
OceanaGold posts a 35% ROE and 34% margins, with a wide economic moat and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, reflecting a business that has compounded strong returns and growth over time.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 25% and margins hold above 25% over the next several quarters.
CounterGold miner margins are highly sensitive to commodity prices; a pullback in gold prices could quickly compress the current 34% margin.
The company has missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of -44%, undercutting the bull case on execution.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings surprise streak returns to positive with 2 or more consecutive beats.
CounterEarnings misses in a volatile commodity business can result from one-off gold-price swings rather than a structural deterioration.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 8.8 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 37%
- ▸Strong margins: 35%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 50% YoY
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.40 (n=2)
- ▸Contrarian divergence: +2.0 (bearish sentiment + deep value + high quality)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
7.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.6 |
| quality rank | 7.7 |
| growth rank | 4.2 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 6.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 2.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.7 |
| beta | 5.0 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸High IV: 64%
Catalyst
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Deep value: 50% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. | News modifier -2 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_DEEP_VALUE|L3:NEWS_MOD=-2Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:85d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.51>1.3
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.7, and Quality at 8.9; the weakest are Technical at 2.2, Catalyst at 4.0, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Roe Margin Quality
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 15% from the current 35%.
- P2Growth Adjusted Cheap Valuation
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0 from the current 0.06.
- P3Revenue Growth Surge
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY from the current 98% pace.
- P4Earnings Miss Streak Risk
Trip ifThe company's earnings surprise stays below 0% for 2 more consecutive quarters, extending the current 2-miss streak.
- P5News Driven Verdict Downgrade
Trip ifPut/call ratio exceeds 3.0 from the current 2.00.