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NWLNewell Brands Inc.Sell5.0·$5.83-1.02%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Newell Brands trades at an attractive forward P/E of 7.1x with a PEG of 0.04, but carries an 18% short interest, a put/call ratio of 5.25, a quality score of 2.2/10 with no competitive moat, and an overbought RSI of 75 in the context of a death cross recovery, creating a high-risk environment.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation With Quality DeficitStable
  • High Short Interest Bearish OptionsStable
  • Overbought Rsi In RecoveryStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Newell Brands Inc. (NWL) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.83: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality.

Newell Brands is a global consumer goods company selling well-known brands including Rubbermaid, Sharpie, Graco, Coleman, Yankee Candle and Oster across three segments: Home and Commercial Solutions, Learning and Development, and Outdoor and Recreation, in over 150 countries.... Read more

$5.83+4.3% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#13 of 18 Household & Personal Products
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield17.46%
IncomeYield4.80%(5y avg 5.33%)Payout195.74%at-risk
Stop $5.42Target $6.08(resistance)A.R:R -1.8:1
Analyst target$4.94-15.3%8 analysts
$6.08our TP
$5.83price
$4.94mean
$4
$9

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.83: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 28d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Jul 31, 202628d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Baby business unit single-source supplier
Target reached (-26.3% upside)
Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)8.7
Mkt Cap$2.5B
EV/EBITDA10.0
Profit Mgn-3.9%
ROE-11.2%
Rev Growth-1.1%
Beta0.86
Dividend4.80%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.05bullish
IV81%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerAmazon17%
    10-K Item 1: 'The Company's largest customer in 2025, Amazon, accounted for approximately 17%, 15% and 13% of net sales in 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'
  • LOWCustomerWalmart13%
    10-K Item 1: 'Walmart Inc. and subsidiaries (“Walmart”), the Company's second largest customer in 2025, accounted for approximately 13%, 14% and 15% of net sales in 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'
  • HIGHSupplierBaby business unit single-source supplier
    10-K Item 1: 'the Baby business unit within the Company's L&D segment has a single source of supply for products that comprise a majority of its sales and that owns the intellectual property for many of those products.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-13Item 5.07LOW
    Newell Brands stockholders approved the Newell Brands Inc. 2026 Incentive Plan at the May 7, 2026 annual meeting; a routine equity-plan approval with vote results reported.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Unprofitable operations — net margin -3.9%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
1.1
Roa
1.8
Moat
2.5
Gross Margin
2.8
Current Ratio
4.1
Piotroski F
5.6
No competitive moatQuality concerns
GatesA.R:R -1.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 28d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
75 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $3.48Resistance $6.20

Price Targets

$5
$6
A.Upside+4.3%
A.R:R-1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-26.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (28d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NWL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.83: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $5.42. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NWL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $6.08 (+4.3% upside). Prior stop was $5.42. Stop-loss: $5.42.

What are the risks of investing in NWL?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Baby business unit single-source supplier; Target reached (-26.3% upside); Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0).

Is NWL overvalued or undervalued?

Newell Brands Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 8.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NWL?

13 analysts cover NWL with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $5.

What does Newell Brands Inc. do?Newell Brands is a global consumer goods company selling well-known brands including Rubbermaid, Sharpie, Graco,...

Newell Brands is a global consumer goods company selling well-known brands including Rubbermaid, Sharpie, Graco, Coleman, Yankee Candle and Oster across three segments: Home and Commercial Solutions, Learning and Development, and Outdoor and Recreation, in over 150 countries. The company's largest customer, Amazon, accounted for approximately 17% of 2025 net sales, followed by Walmart at approximately 13%, and Newell is executing a multi-year turnaround including a December 2025 global Productivity Plan that will cut its workforce by more than 900 employees.

Related stocks: SPB (Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc.) · ELF (e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.) · COTY (Coty Inc.) · IPAR (Interparfums, Inc.) · HELE (Helen of Troy Limited)
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