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NWLNewell Brands Inc.Sell5.3·$5.11+1.59%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Newell Brands trades at an attractive forward P/E of 7.1x with a PEG of 0.04, but carries an 18% short interest, a put/call ratio of 5.25, a quality score of 2.2/10 with no competitive moat, and an overbought RSI of 75 in the context of a death cross recovery, creating a high-risk environment.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation With Quality DeficitImproving
  • High Short Interest Bearish OptionsImproving
  • Overbought Rsi In RecoveryImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Newell Brands Inc. (NWL) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 5/5ValueGrowthShortModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products

Earnings in 5 days (2026-07-31). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.11: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Below-average business quality.

Newell Brands is a global consumer goods company selling well-known brands including Rubbermaid, Sharpie, Graco, Coleman, Yankee Candle and Oster across three segments: Home and Commercial Solutions, Learning and Development, and Outdoor and Recreation, in over 150 countries.... Read more

$5.11-4.2% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#9 of 18 Household & Personal Products
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield20.04%
IncomeYield5.56%(5y avg 5.33%)Payout195.74%at-risk
Stop $4.77Target $6.08(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$5.59+9.5%8 analysts
$6.08our TP
$5.11price
$5.59mean
$4
$9

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.11: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26

Recent Developments — Newell Brands Inc.

Generated 2026-07-26T07:07:11Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Jul 31, 20265d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Baby business unit single-source supplier
Target reached (-4.2% upside)
Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)7.6
Mkt Cap$2.2B
EV/EBITDA9.6
Profit Mgn-3.9%
ROE-11.2%
Rev Growth-1.1%
Beta0.86
Dividend5.56%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV92%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerAmazon17%
    10-K Item 1: 'The Company's largest customer in 2025, Amazon, accounted for approximately 17%, 15% and 13% of net sales in 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'
  • LOWCustomerWalmart13%
    10-K Item 1: 'Walmart Inc. and subsidiaries (“Walmart”), the Company's second largest customer in 2025, accounted for approximately 13%, 14% and 15% of net sales in 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'
  • HIGHSupplierBaby business unit single-source supplier
    10-K Item 1: 'the Baby business unit within the Company's L&D segment has a single source of supply for products that comprise a majority of its sales and that owns the intellectual property for many of those products.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-13Item 5.07LOW
    Newell Brands stockholders approved the Newell Brands Inc. 2026 Incentive Plan at the May 7, 2026 annual meeting; a routine equity-plan approval with vote results reported.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Unprofitable operations — net margin -3.9%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
1.1
Roa
1.8
Moat
2.5
Gross Margin
2.8
Current Ratio
4.1
Piotroski F
5.6
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.5
Growth Rank
2.4
Value Rank
8.9
GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $4.92Resistance $6.20

Price Targets

$5
$6
A.Upside-4.2%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.2% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (5/5): Revenue declining (-26.2% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -12.9%), High leverage (D/E 2.0)…

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NWL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.11: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $4.77. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NWL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $6.08 (-4.2% upside). Prior stop was $4.77. Stop-loss: $4.77.

What are the risks of investing in NWL?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Baby business unit single-source supplier; Target reached (-4.2% upside); Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0).

Is NWL overvalued or undervalued?

Newell Brands Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 7.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NWL?

13 analysts cover NWL with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $6.

What does Newell Brands Inc. do?Newell Brands is a global consumer goods company selling well-known brands including Rubbermaid, Sharpie, Graco,...

Newell Brands is a global consumer goods company selling well-known brands including Rubbermaid, Sharpie, Graco, Coleman, Yankee Candle and Oster across three segments: Home and Commercial Solutions, Learning and Development, and Outdoor and Recreation, in over 150 countries. The company's largest customer, Amazon, accounted for approximately 17% of 2025 net sales, followed by Walmart at approximately 13%, and Newell is executing a multi-year turnaround including a December 2025 global Productivity Plan that will cut its workforce by more than 900 employees.

Related stocks: HELE (Helen of Troy Limited) · SPB (Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc.) · ELF (e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.) · IPAR (Interparfums, Inc.) · MAGN (Magnera Corporation)
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