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NGVTIngevity CorporationSell5.6·$72.49-0.12%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Ingevity Corporation has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, trades at a forward P/E of 12.6x with a PEG of 0.06, and shows strong technical momentum, but with the stock price already at analyst consensus targets and a high debt-to-equity ratio of 32x, the near-term risk/reward is unfavorable.

Thesis pillars

  • Breakout Technical MomentumStable
  • Earnings Beat ExecutionStable
  • Deep Value Peg RatioStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Ingevity Corporation (NGVT) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $72.49 — A.R:R 0.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 32.0): -1.5.

Ingevity manufactures activated carbon for automotive emission control systems, asphalt paving additives, and specialty polymers across three segments. In 2025, Performance Materials ($607M), Performance Chemicals ($401M), and Advanced Polymer Technologies ($160M) generated... Read more

$72.49+0.2% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#11 of 40 Specialty Chemicals
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield8.96%
Stop $67.42Target $72.67(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.0:1
Analyst target$85.50+17.9%4 analysts
$72.67our TP
$72.49price
$85.50mean
$92

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $72.49 — A.R:R 0.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 32.0): -1.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 25d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Ingevity Corporation

About Ingevity Corporation

Ingevity generated $1.17 billion in 2025 net sales across Performance Materials ($606.9 million), Performance Chemicals ($400.5 million), and Advanced Polymer Technologies ($160.2 million). The company's activated carbon products capture an estimated 8 million gallons of gasoline vapors daily from ICE and hybrid vehicles, serving roughly 65 automotive customers globally. North America accounts for approximately 50% and Asia Pacific for about 40% of Performance Materials net sales, with China representing roughly half of that Asia Pacific volume.

Performance Materials earns revenue from direct sales of granular, pellet, and honeycomb activated carbon to automotive parts makers including PHINIA Inc., A. Kayser Automotive Systems, and Korea Fuel-Tech Corporation, competing against Norit and Kuraray Co. The segment's top 10 customers accounted for approximately 90% of its 2025 sales—a concentration driven by the small number of global Tier-1 automotive evaporative-emissions canister manufacturers. Performance Chemicals, serving asphalt paving contractors and agrochemical formulators through five U.S. plants, has a more dispersed customer base: the top 10 customers represented only 32% of segment revenue in 2025, with the next 100 customers contributing another 46%. Natural gas powers the manufacturing processes across all three segments, and the company enters derivative instruments to manage gas price volatility.

Show full overview

The electric vehicle transition poses a long-dated but asymmetric risk to Ingevity's largest segment. Performance Materials revenue tracks internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicle production, and multiple OEMs now adopt sealed fuel tanks in Tier 3/LEV III-compliant vehicles that bypass the higher-margin extruded honeycomb product. If competitors such as Norit or Chinese manufacturers develop alternative evaporative-emissions technologies—or if battery-electric vehicles displace ICE platforms faster than the company's planned pivot to energy-storage carbon applications materializes—Performance Materials revenue may weigh on consolidated margins. The January 2026 divestiture of the North Charleston CTO refinery and industrial specialties line is intended to simplify the portfolio toward Performance Materials and Pavement Technologies.

See also: Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals

From Ingevity Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06

Recent Developments — Ingevity Corporation

Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:27Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202625d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 32.0): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)12.2
Mkt Cap$2.5B
EV/EBITDA10.2
Profit Mgn-10.9%
ROE-114.1%
Rev Growth4.1%
Beta1.17
DividendNone
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.27bearish
IV55%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.4
Value Rank
4.1
Growth Rank
4.3
GatesA.R:R 0.0 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.2>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 25d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $65.06Resistance $77.12

Price Targets

$67
$73
A.Upside+0.2%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.3% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (25d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NGVT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $72.49 — A.R:R 0.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 32.0): -1.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $67.42. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NGVT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $72.67 (+0.2% upside). Prior stop was $67.42. Stop-loss: $67.42.

What are the risks of investing in NGVT?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 32.0): -1.5.

Is NGVT overvalued or undervalued?

Ingevity Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 12.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NGVT?

10 analysts cover NGVT with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $86.

What does Ingevity Corporation do?Ingevity manufactures activated carbon for automotive emission control systems, asphalt paving additives, and specialty...

Ingevity manufactures activated carbon for automotive emission control systems, asphalt paving additives, and specialty polymers across three segments. In 2025, Performance Materials ($607M), Performance Chemicals ($401M), and Advanced Polymer Technologies ($160M) generated combined revenue of ~$1.2 billion from direct sales to automotive parts makers, paving contractors, and industrial customers globally.

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