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ESIElement Solutions Inc.Buy Wait6.2·$35.53
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Element Solutions has delivered exceptional year-over-year revenue growth of 42% with consistent earnings beats, but the stock is priced at or marginally above its near-term target, converts only 16% of net income into free cash flow, and faces a put/call ratio of 72.61—an extraordinary level of institutional hedging that outweighs the momentum of the underlying growth story.

Thesis pillars

  • Exceptional Growth Trajectory→Stable
  • Poor Free Cash Conversion→Stable
  • Extreme Options Market Hedging↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Element Solutions Inc. (ESI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals

Earnings in 6 days (2026-10-21). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $34.41. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $35.53. Engine's entry $34.41 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. operations (79.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Electronics segment (70.0%).

Element Solutions formulates and sells specialty chemicals across two segments — Electronics (70% of $2.55 billion 2025 sales) and Specialties (30%) — serving electronics manufacturing, semiconductor, automotive, and industrial markets globally. Revenue is driven by consumable... Read more

$35.53+15.3% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#7 of 43 Specialty Chemicals
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield0.58%
IncomeYield0.86%(5y avg 1.26%)Payout43.24%sustainable
Entry $34.41(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $32.00Target $40.96(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$47.08+32.5%12 analysts
$40.96our TP
$35.53price
$47.08mean
$55

Wait for pullback to $34.41. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $35.53. Engine's entry $34.41 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. operations (79.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Electronics segment (70.0%). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 21, 20266d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.58)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. operations (79.0%)
Concentration risk — Product: Electronics segment (70.0%)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)50.5
P/E (Fwd)16.8
Mkt Cap$8.7B
EV/EBITDA18.9
Profit Mgn5.7%
ROE6.5%
Rev Growth56.4%
Beta1.26
Dividend0.86%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.05bearish
IV132%elevated
Max Pain$26-26.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicnon-U.S. operations79%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 79% of our net sales were generated from non-U.S. operations'
  • HIGHProductElectronics segment70%
    10-K Item 1: 'our Electronics and Specialties segments contributed approximately 70% and 30%, respectively'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-23Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Sir Martin E. Franklin, Executive Chairman of the Board, informed the Board he will not seek reelection and will retire effective May 4, 2026 (2026 annual meeting). Board size reduced from 8 to 7 directors. No disagreement with company operations, policies, or practices cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Macd
3.4
Rsi
4.5
Volume
5.3
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
49 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $32.53Resistance $38.38

Price Targets

$32
$34
$41
A.Upside+15.3%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier +1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! momentum at 3.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-21 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ESI stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $34.41. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $35.53. Engine's entry $34.41 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. operations (79.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Electronics segment (70.0%). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $40.96 (+15.3%), stop $32.00 (−11.0%), A.R:R 1.8:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ESI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $40.96 (+15.3% upside). Target $40.96 (+15.3%), stop $32.00 (−11.0%), A.R:R 1.8:1. Stop-loss: $32.00.

What are the risks of investing in ESI?

Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. operations (79.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Electronics segment (70.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0).

Is ESI overvalued or undervalued?

Element Solutions Inc. trades at a P/E of 50.5 (forward 16.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ESI?

13 analysts cover ESI with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $47.

What does Element Solutions Inc. do?Element Solutions formulates and sells specialty chemicals across two segments — Electronics (70% of $2.55 billion 2025...

Element Solutions formulates and sells specialty chemicals across two segments — Electronics (70% of $2.55 billion 2025 sales) and Specialties (30%) — serving electronics manufacturing, semiconductor, automotive, and industrial markets globally. Revenue is driven by consumable chemical processes integral to customers' manufacturing operations, with operational risks and switching costs cited as barriers to customer switching.

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