Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $74.39: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
Meritage Homes builds single-family attached and detached homes across 12 states in three regions, focused on entry-level and first move-up buyers at an average sales price of approximately $384,000. Home closing revenue was $5.8 billion in 2025 across 336 active communities;... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $74.39: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Meritage Homes Corporation
About Meritage Homes Corporation
Meritage Homes operated 336 active selling communities across 12 states in three geographic regions at December 31, 2025, generating $5.8 billion in home closing revenue for the year — a 9.1% decline year-over-year as affordability pressure compressed both closing volume and average selling prices to approximately $384,000. The company focuses on entry-level and first move-up buyers and ranks as the fifth largest homebuilder in America.
Meritage earns revenue through transactional home sales under a 100% spec model, pre-starting all homes with preselected plans and features so buyers can close within 60 calendar days. All construction is performed by unaffiliated third-party subcontractors hired via competitive bids, creating exposure to labor cost volatility and skilled-trade shortages in certain markets. Land costs remained elevated in 2025: the company invested approximately $1.9 billion in land acquisition and development and held 77,625 lots under control at year-end, with roughly 72% owned. Home closing gross margin declined to 19.7%, 520 basis points below 24.9% in 2024, driven by increased financing incentive utilization, higher lot costs, $39.4 million in terminated land contract charges, and $16.5 million of real estate-related impairments. The company also provides title, mortgage, and insurance services through a financial services segment. Competition spans national, regional, and local homebuilders as well as the resale market.
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Meritage's margins are directly tied to mortgage rate dynamics and consumer affordability. The 10-K notes that most buyers finance through the company's mortgage joint venture or third-party lenders and that rapid interest rate increases could accelerate backlog cancellations. To offset affordability pressure in 2025, the company expanded use of interest rate locks and buy-downs; the 10-K acknowledges these incentive tools are expensive and their availability cannot be guaranteed. Home order value fell 3.8% in 2025 due entirely to lower average selling price from increased incentive utilization, illustrating how quickly affordability constraints pass through to realized pricing.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
From Meritage Homes Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-17Recent Developments — Meritage Homes Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS JP Morgan Maintains Neutral on Meritage Homes, Lowers Price Target to $58 — benzinga Apr 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS UBS Maintains Buy on Meritage Homes, Lowers Price Target to $86 — benzinga Apr 24, 2026 positive
- NEWS Conference Call: Meritage Homes Sees Q2 GAAP EPS $1.18-$1.46 vs $1.57 Est — benzinga Apr 23, 2026 negative
- NEWS Meritage Homes Q1 Adj. EPS $0.86 Misses $1.01 Estimate, Sales $1.117B Miss $1.196B Estimate — benzinga Apr 22, 2026 negative
- NEWS Earnings Scheduled For April 22, 2026 — benzinga Apr 22, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-06-17T09:56:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-26Item 5.02LOWExecutive Compensation Committee approved compensation increases for CEO Phillippe Lord, CFO Hilla Sferruzza, EVP/General Counsel Malissia Clinton, and EVP/Chief People Officer Javier Feliciano effective March 23, 2026. No departures; routine compensation adjustments under existing employment agreements.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
5 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Revenue shrinking — -17.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $74.39: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71. Prior stop was $69.55. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $74.46 (+0.2% upside). Prior stop was $69.55. Stop-loss: $69.55.
Target reached (-8.9% upside); Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-7.0% YoY), High leverage (D/E 3.6).
Meritage Homes Corporation trades at a P/E of 13.3 (forward 11.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
16 analysts cover MTH with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $78.
What does Meritage Homes Corporation do?Meritage Homes builds single-family attached and detached homes across 12 states in three regions, focused on...
Meritage Homes builds single-family attached and detached homes across 12 states in three regions, focused on entry-level and first move-up buyers at an average sales price of approximately $384,000. Home closing revenue was $5.8 billion in 2025 across 336 active communities; the company also offers title, mortgage, and insurance through a financial services segment.