Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $67.44: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.00; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Meritage Homes designs and builds entry-level and first move-up single-family homes in 12 states across three regions (West, Central, East), with 336 communities at Dec 31, 2025 and ASP ~$384K. Revenue comes from home closings and an ancillary financial services segment.... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $67.44: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.00; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographiclimited 12-state geographic diversification10-K Item 1A: 'Our lack of geographic diversification could adversely affect us if the homebuilding industry in our markets decline.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-26Item 5.02LOWExecutive Compensation Committee approved pay increases for CEO Phillippe Lord, CFO Hilla Sferruzza, and two other EVPs effective March 23, 2026. Routine compensation adjustment, no officer departures.SEC filing →
- 2026-02-19Item 5.02LOWDennis V. Arriola resigned from the Board effective March 31, 2026. Board reduced from 12 to 11 directors. Resignation did not result from any disagreements with the Company. No successor needed.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Revenue shrinking — -17.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $67.44: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.00; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Prior stop was $62.62. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $67.67 (+0.6% upside). Prior stop was $62.62. Stop-loss: $62.62.
Target reached (0.6% upside); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).
Meritage Homes Corporation trades at a P/E of 12.2 (forward 9.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
16 analysts cover MTH with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $78.
What does Meritage Homes Corporation do?Meritage Homes designs and builds entry-level and first move-up single-family homes in 12 states across three regions...
Meritage Homes designs and builds entry-level and first move-up single-family homes in 12 states across three regions (West, Central, East), with 336 communities at Dec 31, 2025 and ASP ~$384K. Revenue comes from home closings and an ancillary financial services segment. Geographic reach is more limited than some national competitors.