Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $61.21: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.
Meritage Homes is the fifth largest U.S. homebuilder operating in 12 states across 336 communities focused on entry-level and first move-up buyers. Home closing revenue was $5.8B in 2025 (15,026 homes closed at ~$384K average selling price) with a 100% spec-build strategy... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $61.21: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent Developments — Meritage Homes Corporation
Latest news
- JP Morgan Maintains Neutral on Meritage Homes, Lowers Price Target to $58 — benzinga Apr 28, 2026 negative
- UBS Maintains Buy on Meritage Homes, Lowers Price Target to $86 — benzinga Apr 24, 2026 positive
- Conference Call: Meritage Homes Sees Q2 GAAP EPS $1.18-$1.46 vs $1.57 Est — benzinga Apr 23, 2026 negative
- Meritage Homes Q1 Adj. EPS $0.86 Misses $1.01 Estimate, Sales $1.117B Miss $1.196B Estimate — benzinga Apr 22, 2026 negative
- Earnings Scheduled For April 22, 2026 — benzinga Apr 22, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-26Item 5.02LOWCompensation Committee approved increases for CEO Phillippe Lord, CFO Hilla Sferruzza, General Counsel Malissia Clinton, and CHRO Javier Feliciano on March 23, 2026. No departures.SEC filing →
- 2026-02-19Item 5.02LOWDirector Dennis V. Arriola notified Company of resignation effective March 31, 2026. No disagreements with Company. Board reduced from 12 to 11 members.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
5 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Revenue shrinking — -17.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $61.21: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $57.35. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $67.67 (+10.6% upside). Prior stop was $57.35. Stop-loss: $57.35.
Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).
Meritage Homes Corporation trades at a P/E of 11.2 (forward 9.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
16 analysts cover MTH with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $78.
What does Meritage Homes Corporation do?Meritage Homes is the fifth largest U.S. homebuilder operating in 12 states across 336 communities focused on...
Meritage Homes is the fifth largest U.S. homebuilder operating in 12 states across 336 communities focused on entry-level and first move-up buyers. Home closing revenue was $5.8B in 2025 (15,026 homes closed at ~$384K average selling price) with a 100% spec-build strategy targeting 60-day closings.