Matador Resources is an attractively valued oil and gas producer trading at 5.8x forward earnings with a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak and 27% analyst-implied upside, but concentrated exposure to the Delaware Basin and oil prices creates meaningful downside risk if commodity prices mean-revert.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- Delaware Basin Concentration Risk↑Improving
- Commodity Cycle Peak Momentum Headwind↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Matador Resources Company (MTDR) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Wait for pullback to $52.31. At $59.72 the A.R:R is 0.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $52.31 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin (99.0%); Concentration risk — Commodity: oil production (58.0%).
Matador Resources is an independent E&P company focused on the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring plays in the Delaware Basin of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, producing 207,070 BOE per day in 2025 from 667.0 million BOE in proved reserves. The company generates revenue from oil... Read more
Wait for pullback to $52.31. At $59.72 the A.R:R is 0.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $52.31 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin (99.0%); Concentration risk — Commodity: oil production (58.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.8/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst cluster(5), earnings proximity 54d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-04Recent Developments — Matador Resources Company
Latest news
- NEWS Sei Investments Co. Purchases 192,477 Shares of Matador Resources Company $MTDR - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership Buys Shares of 489,148 Matador Resources Company $MTDR - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Matador Resources Co (MTDR) Institutional Confidence - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS Matador Resources Co (MTDR) Earnings Forecast: Future EPS & Revenue Growth Estimates - tradingkey.com — tradingkey.com neutral
- NEWS Matador Resources Co (MTDR) Institutional Confidence - tradingkey.com — tradingkey.com neutral
Generated 2026-09-04T10:12:14Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicDelaware Basin99%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 99% of our estimated total proved oil and natural gas reserves, or 662.2 million BOE, was attributable to the Delaware Basin'
- HIGHCommodityoil production58%10-K Item 1: 'Oil production comprised 58% of our total production (using a conversion ratio of one Bbl of oil per six Mcf of natural gas) for each of the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024.'
- MEDIUMregulatoryfederal lands10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 33% of our leasehold and mineral acres in the Delaware Basin is located on federal lands, which are subject to various requirements and regulations.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-27Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO Robert T. Macalik ceased service April 21, 2026. Christopher P. Calvert (previously COO) promoted to EVP/CFO; Glenn W. Stetson promoted to EVP/COO. No financial or accounting issues cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $52.31. At $59.72 the A.R:R is 0.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $52.31 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin (99.0%); Concentration risk — Commodity: oil production (58.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $61.82 (+3.5%), stop $48.81 (−22.4%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Score 6.8/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $61.82 (+3.5% upside). Target $61.82 (+3.5%), stop $48.81 (−22.4%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Stop-loss: $48.81.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin (99.0%); Concentration risk — Commodity: oil production (58.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.5%.
Matador Resources Company trades at a P/E of 10.1 (forward 6.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
27 analysts cover MTDR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $69.
What does Matador Resources Company do?Matador Resources is an independent E&P company focused on the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring plays in the Delaware Basin of...
Matador Resources is an independent E&P company focused on the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring plays in the Delaware Basin of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, producing 207,070 BOE per day in 2025 from 667.0 million BOE in proved reserves. The company generates revenue from oil (58% of production), natural gas, and NGLs at spot prices, plus midstream services revenue through San Mateo Midstream (51% owned).