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Matador Resources Company (MTDR) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $63.08, A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.2%; Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin.

Matador Resources is an independent E&P company focused on oil and natural gas production in the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring plays of the Delaware Basin (SE New Mexico, West Texas) and Haynesville shale (NW Louisiana). Revenue comes from oil, natural gas, and NGL sales,... Read more

$63.08+3.2% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#28 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
Stop $58.65Target $65.08(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$72.32+14.6%19 analysts
$65.08our TP
$63.08price
$72.32mean
$107

Sell if holding. At $63.08, A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.2%; Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 31%
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin
Thin upside margin: 3.2%
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.3
P/E (Fwd)7.6
Mkt Cap$7.8B
EV/EBITDA4.8
Profit Mgn20.8%
ROE15.0%
Rev Growth-12.5%
Beta0.91
Dividend2.38%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.97neutral
IV65%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicDelaware Basin
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our reserves and production are concentrated in a few core areas ... leasehold acreage is located primarily in the Delaware Basin'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -12.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
0.1
Declining revenue: -12%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.7
Quality Rank
5.8
Value Rank
7.4
Attractive P/E vs peers
GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $52.76Resistance $65.13

Price Targets

$59
$65
A.Upside+3.2%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MTDR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $63.08, A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.2%; Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $58.65. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MTDR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $65.08 (+3.2% upside). Prior stop was $58.65. Stop-loss: $58.65.

What are the risks of investing in MTDR?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin; Thin upside margin: 3.2%; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Is MTDR overvalued or undervalued?

Matador Resources Company trades at a P/E of 10.3 (forward 7.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MTDR?

29 analysts cover MTDR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $72.

What does Matador Resources Company do?Matador Resources is an independent E&P company focused on oil and natural gas production in the Wolfcamp and Bone...

Matador Resources is an independent E&P company focused on oil and natural gas production in the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring plays of the Delaware Basin (SE New Mexico, West Texas) and Haynesville shale (NW Louisiana). Revenue comes from oil, natural gas, and NGL sales, supplemented by midstream services through its San Mateo subsidiary.

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