Matador Resources Company (MTDR) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Wait for pullback to $59.15. At $61.25 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $59.15 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 7.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.46× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin (99.0%).
Matador Resources is an independent E&P company focused on the oil and liquids-rich Delaware Basin in SE New Mexico and West Texas, plus Haynesville shale in NW Louisiana. Produced 43.7M Bbl of oil and 191.3 Bcf of natural gas in 2025 (207,070 BOE/day); oil comprises 58% of... Read more
Wait for pullback to $59.15. At $61.25 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $59.15 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 7.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.46× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin (99.0%). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and materials cycle peak fwd=7.2x,ratio=0.46x. Suitability: moderate.
Recent Developments — Matador Resources Company
Material events (past 30 days)
- Apr 27, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Christopher P. Calvert promoted to EVP and CFO, Glenn W. Stetson promoted to EVP and COO, both effective April 21, 2026. Robert T. Macalik ceased as CFO; departure not related to financial or accounting issues.
Latest news
- Analysts’ Opinions Are Mixed on These Energy Stocks: Matador Resources (MTDR) and Ranger Energy Services (RNGR) - The Gl — The Globe and Mail neutral
- Matador Resources (MTDR) to Release Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- Is Matador Resources Co (MTDR) a Bargain After 4.9% Drop? GF Val - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- Strs Ohio Sells 54,095 Shares of Matador Resources Company $MTDR - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- MATADOR RESOURCES ($MTDR) Releases Q1 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicDelaware Basin99%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 99% of our estimated total proved oil and natural gas reserves, or 662.2 million BOE, was attributable to the Delaware Basin'
- MEDIUMCommodityoil58%10-K Item 1: 'Oil production comprised 58% of our total production (using a conversion ratio of one Bbl of oil per six Mcf of natural gas) for each of the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-27Item 5.02MEDIUMChristopher P. Calvert promoted to EVP and CFO, Glenn W. Stetson promoted to EVP and COO, both effective April 21, 2026. Robert T. Macalik ceased as CFO; departure not related to financial or accounting issues.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -6.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $59.15. At $61.25 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $59.15 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 7.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.46× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin (99.0%). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $65.85 (+7.5%), stop $54.74 (−11.9%), Setup A.R:R 1.6:1. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $65.85 (+11.1% upside). Target $65.85 (+7.5%), stop $54.74 (−11.9%), Setup A.R:R 1.6:1. Stop-loss: $54.74.
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 7.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.46× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin (99.0%); Thin upside margin: 8.3%.
Matador Resources Company trades at a P/E of 15.7 (forward 7.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
28 analysts cover MTDR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $73.
What does Matador Resources Company do?Matador Resources is an independent E&P company focused on the oil and liquids-rich Delaware Basin in SE New Mexico and...
Matador Resources is an independent E&P company focused on the oil and liquids-rich Delaware Basin in SE New Mexico and West Texas, plus Haynesville shale in NW Louisiana. Produced 43.7M Bbl of oil and 191.3 Bcf of natural gas in 2025 (207,070 BOE/day); oil comprises 58% of production mix. Midstream operations are conducted 51% through San Mateo with Five Point as 49% JV partner.