Matador Resources is an attractively valued oil and gas producer trading at 5.8x forward earnings with a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak and 27% analyst-implied upside, but concentrated exposure to the Delaware Basin and oil prices creates meaningful downside risk if commodity prices mean-revert.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- Delaware Basin Concentration Risk↓Deteriorating
- Commodity Cycle Peak Momentum Headwind↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026· older than 90 days
Matador Resources Company (MTDR) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $54.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin (99.0%); Concentration risk — Commodity: oil production (58.0%).
Matador Resources is an independent E&P company focused on the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring plays in the Delaware Basin of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, producing 207,070 BOE per day in 2025 from 667.0 million BOE in proved reserves. The company generates revenue from oil... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $54.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin (99.0%); Concentration risk — Commodity: oil production (58.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.8/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Oct 27, 2026Recent Developments — Matador Resources Company
Latest news
- NEWS Are Oils-Energy Stocks Lagging Matador Resources (MTDR) This Year? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 27, 2026 negative
- NEWS Matador Resources, Chord Energy, Magnolia Oil & Gas, SM Energy, and Northern Oil and Gas Stocks Trade Down, What You Nee — Yahoo Finance Sep 16, 2026 negative
- NEWS Matador Resources Drops 6.4% Amid Sector-Wide Selling - AlphaStreet — AlphaStreet Sep 16, 2026 negative
- NEWS Matador Resources (NYSE:MTDR) Stock Price Down 4.6% - Here's Why - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Sep 16, 2026 negative
- NEWS Matador Resources (NYSE:MTDR) Stock Price Down 4.6% - Here's Why - marketbeat.com — marketbeat.com Sep 16, 2026 negative
Latest item Oct 27, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:29:28Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicDelaware Basin99%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 99% of our estimated total proved oil and natural gas reserves, or 662.2 million BOE, was attributable to the Delaware Basin'
- HIGHCommodityoil production58%10-K Item 1: 'Oil production comprised 58% of our total production (using a conversion ratio of one Bbl of oil per six Mcf of natural gas) for each of the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024.'
- MEDIUMregulatoryfederal lands10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 33% of our leasehold and mineral acres in the Delaware Basin is located on federal lands, which are subject to various requirements and regulations.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-27Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO Robert T. Macalik ceased service April 21, 2026. Christopher P. Calvert (previously COO) promoted to EVP/CFO; Glenn W. Stetson promoted to EVP/COO. No financial or accounting issues cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $54.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin (99.0%); Concentration risk — Commodity: oil production (58.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $63.99 (+17.8%), stop $50.51 (−7.5%), A.R:R 2.1:1. Score 6.8/10, high confidence.
Analyst target: $63.99 (+17.8% upside). Analyst target $63.99 (+17.8%), stop $50.51 (−7.5%), A.R:R 2.1:1. Stop-loss: $50.51.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin (99.0%); Concentration risk — Commodity: oil production (58.0%); Negative momentum.
Matador Resources Company trades at a P/E of 9.6 (forward 5.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Hold.
30 analysts rate MTDR, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 20 analysts publish price targets averaging $71.
What does Matador Resources Company do?Matador Resources is an independent E&P company focused on the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring plays in the Delaware Basin of...
Matador Resources is an independent E&P company focused on the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring plays in the Delaware Basin of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, producing 207,070 BOE per day in 2025 from 667.0 million BOE in proved reserves. The company generates revenue from oil (58% of production), natural gas, and NGLs at spot prices, plus midstream services revenue through San Mateo Midstream (51% owned).