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Matador Resources Company (MTDR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Wait for pullback to $59.15. At $61.25 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $59.15 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 7.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.46× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin (99.0%).

Matador Resources is an independent E&P company focused on the oil and liquids-rich Delaware Basin in SE New Mexico and West Texas, plus Haynesville shale in NW Louisiana. Produced 43.7M Bbl of oil and 191.3 Bcf of natural gas in 2025 (207,070 BOE/day); oil comprises 58% of... Read more

$61.25+11.1% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#30 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-3.50%
IncomeYield2.47%(5y avg 1.19%)Payout35.44%sustainable
Entry $59.15(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $54.74Target $65.85(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.7:1Setup A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$73.17+19.5%18 analysts
$65.85our TP
$61.25price
$73.17mean
$107

Wait for pullback to $59.15. At $61.25 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $59.15 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 7.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.46× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin (99.0%). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and materials cycle peak fwd=7.2x,ratio=0.46x. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Matador Resources Company

Material events (past 30 days)

  • Apr 27, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Christopher P. Calvert promoted to EVP and CFO, Glenn W. Stetson promoted to EVP and COO, both effective April 21, 2026. Robert T. Macalik ceased as CFO; departure not related to financial or accounting issues.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Risks
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 7.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.46× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin (99.0%)
Thin upside margin: 8.3%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.7
P/E (Fwd)7.2
Mkt Cap$7.6B
EV/EBITDA5.4
Profit Mgn13.5%
ROE10.1%
Rev Growth-6.4%
Beta0.80
Dividend2.47%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.74neutral
IV48%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicDelaware Basin99%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 99% of our estimated total proved oil and natural gas reserves, or 662.2 million BOE, was attributable to the Delaware Basin'
  • MEDIUMCommodityoil58%
    10-K Item 1: 'Oil production comprised 58% of our total production (using a conversion ratio of one Bbl of oil per six Mcf of natural gas) for each of the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-27Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Christopher P. Calvert promoted to EVP and CFO, Glenn W. Stetson promoted to EVP and COO, both effective April 21, 2026. Robert T. Macalik ceased as CFO; departure not related to financial or accounting issues.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -6.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.9
Declining revenue: -6%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.6
Quality Rank
4.2
Value Rank
5.5
GatesA.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK fwd=7.2x,ratio=0.46xMomentum 6.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $53.75Resistance $63.45

Price Targets

$55
$59
$66
A.Upside+7.5%
A.R:R0.7:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Reward/Risk 0.7:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=7.2x,ratio=0.46x

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MTDR stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $59.15. At $61.25 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $59.15 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 7.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.46× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin (99.0%). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $65.85 (+7.5%), stop $54.74 (−11.9%), Setup A.R:R 1.6:1. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MTDR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $65.85 (+11.1% upside). Target $65.85 (+7.5%), stop $54.74 (−11.9%), Setup A.R:R 1.6:1. Stop-loss: $54.74.

What are the risks of investing in MTDR?

Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 7.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.46× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Delaware Basin (99.0%); Thin upside margin: 8.3%.

Is MTDR overvalued or undervalued?

Matador Resources Company trades at a P/E of 15.7 (forward 7.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about MTDR?

28 analysts cover MTDR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $73.

What does Matador Resources Company do?Matador Resources is an independent E&P company focused on the oil and liquids-rich Delaware Basin in SE New Mexico and...

Matador Resources is an independent E&P company focused on the oil and liquids-rich Delaware Basin in SE New Mexico and West Texas, plus Haynesville shale in NW Louisiana. Produced 43.7M Bbl of oil and 191.3 Bcf of natural gas in 2025 (207,070 BOE/day); oil comprises 58% of production mix. Midstream operations are conducted 51% through San Mateo with Five Point as 49% JV partner.

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