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MRTNMarten Transport, Ltd.Sell5.2·$16.30-3.44%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Marten Transport is contending with declining revenue and a negative cash-flow-quality flag, though the stock is pulling back within a broader uptrend the engine still flags as constructive.

Thesis pillars

  • Declining Revenue HeadwindImproving
  • Negative Free Cash Flow QualityImproving
  • Momentum Pullback UptrendDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Marten Transport, Ltd. (MRTN) Stock Analysis

SellGrowthQualityShortModerate Confidence

Industrials · Trucking

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.30: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Marten Transport, Ltd. operates as a temperature-sensitive truckload carrier for shippers in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. It operates through Truckload, Dedicated, and Brokerage segments. The Truckload segment transports food and other consumer packaged goods that... Read more

$16.30-3.5% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#8 of 12 Trucking
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield1.42%(5y avg 1.37%)Payout133.33%at-risk
Stop $15.40Target $17.66(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$18.50+13.5%2 analysts
$17.66our TP
$16.30price
$18.50mean
$19

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.30: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-25

Recent Developments — Marten Transport, Ltd.

Generated 2026-07-25T14:12:24Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 22, 202689d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-3.5% upside)
Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)95.9
P/E (Fwd)24.8
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA10.7
Profit Mgn1.5%
ROE1.6%
Rev Growth-2.8%
Beta
Dividend1.42%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV55%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roa
0.3
Roe
0.5
Gross Margin
0.5
Net Margin
0.7
Operating Margin
0.9
Moat
4.6
Piotroski F
6.7
Current Ratio
8.5
No competitive moatQuality concerns
GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5A.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $15.88Resistance $18.02

Price Targets

$15
$18
A.Upside-3.5%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.5% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)
! momentum at 4.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-22 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MRTN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.30: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $15.40. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MRTN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.66 (-3.5% upside). Prior stop was $15.40. Stop-loss: $15.40.

What are the risks of investing in MRTN?

Target reached (-3.5% upside); Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0).

Is MRTN overvalued or undervalued?

Marten Transport, Ltd. trades at a P/E of 95.9 (forward 24.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MRTN?

8 analysts cover MRTN with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Marten Transport, Ltd. do?Marten Transport, Ltd. operates as a temperature-sensitive truckload carrier for shippers in the United States, Mexico,...

Marten Transport, Ltd. operates as a temperature-sensitive truckload carrier for shippers in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. It operates through Truckload, Dedicated, and Brokerage segments. The Truckload segment transports food and other consumer packaged goods that require a temperature-controlled or insulated environment, as well as dry freight; and regional short-haul and medium-to-long-haul full-load transportation services. The Dedicated segment offers customized transportation solutions for individual customers' requirements using temperature-controlled trailers, dry vans, and other specialized equipment. The Brokerage segment develops contractual relationships with and arranges for third-party carriers to transport freight for customers in temperature-controlled trailers and dry vans. As of December 31, 2025, the company operated a fleet of 2,654 tractors that included 2,577 company-owned tractors and 77 tractors supplied by independent contractors. Marten Transport, Ltd. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Mondovi, Wisconsin.

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