Value
6.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.2 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 27.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.11
MRTN · Why this verdict
Why Marten Transport (MRTN) is rated SELL
Updated
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Marten Transport is contending with declining revenue and a negative cash-flow-quality flag, though the stock is pulling back within a broader uptrend the engine still flags as constructive.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is contracting, down 9% year over year, a headwind for this cyclical trucking business. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive, above 0% YoY, within the next 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 suggests balance-sheet and operational fundamentals remain solid despite the top-line decline. | ||
Free cash flow conversion relative to net income is deeply negative, a red flag on earnings quality. Quality breakdown | Free-cash-flow-to-net-income conversion should turn positive within the next fiscal year. | →Stable |
| CounterThis can reflect a cyclical trough in a capital-intensive trucking business rather than a structural earnings-quality problem. | ||
The stock is pulling back within a broader uptrend, with price still above its 200-day moving average, which the engine flags as a potential buying opportunity. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score should hold above 5.5 rather than deteriorate further. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe momentum score sits right at the soft-gate boundary, meaning any further weakness would trigger a full gate failure. | ||
The stock has already reached its prior analyst-based price target, leaving limited upside from current levels. Bear case | Analyst targets should be raised if the earnings and revenue trends stabilize. | ↑Improving |
| CounterNegative asymmetry already signals the risk/reward is unfavorable at current prices even absent a target increase. | ||
Revenue is contracting, down 9% year over year, a headwind for this cyclical trucking business.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive, above 0% YoY, within the next 2 quarters.
CounterA strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 suggests balance-sheet and operational fundamentals remain solid despite the top-line decline.
Free cash flow conversion relative to net income is deeply negative, a red flag on earnings quality.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free-cash-flow-to-net-income conversion should turn positive within the next fiscal year.
CounterThis can reflect a cyclical trough in a capital-intensive trucking business rather than a structural earnings-quality problem.
The stock is pulling back within a broader uptrend, with price still above its 200-day moving average, which the engine flags as a potential buying opportunity.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score should hold above 5.5 rather than deteriorate further.
CounterThe momentum score sits right at the soft-gate boundary, meaning any further weakness would trigger a full gate failure.
The stock has already reached its prior analyst-based price target, leaving limited upside from current levels.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be raised if the earnings and revenue trends stabilize.
CounterNegative asymmetry already signals the risk/reward is unfavorable at current prices even absent a target increase.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.6 |
| ROA | 0.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.7 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.8 |
| Current ratio | 7.2 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -283% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -9%
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 6.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.3 |
| quality rank | 4.6 |
| growth rank | 0.8 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
9.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.6 |
| 52w position | 8.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.5 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 6.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.8 |
| beta | 7.3 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
- ▸High IV: 69%
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 2.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 0 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.31
Upside
-6.8%
Downside
5.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.7<4.5 outcome against Technical at 9.3 and asymmetric R:R of -1.31.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 9.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8, and Value at 6.3; the weakest are Quality at 2.4, Momentum at 2.7, and Peer rank at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.31 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Declining Revenue Headwind
Trip ifRevenue growth rises above 0% YoY for at least 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Negative Free Cash Flow Quality
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income conversion ratio exceeds 0% within the next fiscal year.
- P3Momentum Pullback Uptrend
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.0 within the next quarter.
- P4Analyst Target Reached
Trip ifAnalyst price target rises more than 10% above the current $18.05 resistance-based target.