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MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc.Buy Wait6.4·$1219.00-0.03%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Monolithic Power Systems has delivered 4 consecutive earnings beats, a wide economic moat, and 26% revenue growth, but trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 54.8x that exceeds analyst targets, leaving the risk-reward unfavorable at current prices despite strong underlying business quality.

Thesis pillars

  • Semiconductor Moat GrowthStable
  • Earnings Beat ExecutionStable
  • Rich Valuation Above TargetImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) Stock Analysis

Temporary headwind edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $1228.95 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum.

Monolithic Power Systems designs and sells fabless analog and mixed-signal power management ICs across storage/computing (26%), enterprise data (25%), automotive (21%), and other end markets, with 4,501 employees worldwide. The company generates revenue through distributors,... Read more

$1219.00+32.1% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#14 of 54 Semiconductors
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield0.74%
IncomeYield0.66%(5y avg 0.64%)Payout43.44%sustainable
Entry $1228.95(support + ATR (held))Stop $1132.83Target $1603.10(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.0:1
Analyst target$1842.64+51.2%14 analysts
$1603.10our TP
$1219.00price
$1842.64mean
$2100

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $1228.95 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.92, quality 8.3/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202655d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.3 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)74.3
P/E (Fwd)34.8
Mkt Cap$59.6B
EV/EBITDA58.2
Profit Mgn24.5%
ROE22.0%
Rev Growth47.6%
Beta1.69
Dividend0.66%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.17bearish
IV56%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.5
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 21, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.5<4.5A.R:R 4.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 55d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
21 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $1189.49Resistance $1464.99

Price Targets

$1133
$1229
$1603
A.Upside+32.1%
A.R:R4.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.9%
Max %3.8%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier capped: WAIT cannot upgrade to NOW via sentiment alone
! momentum at 1.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (55d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MPWR stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $1228.95 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.92, quality 8.3/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $1603.10 (+31.5%), stop $1132.83 (−7.6%), A.R:R 4.0:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MPWR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1603.10 (+32.1% upside). Target $1603.10 (+31.5%), stop $1132.83 (−7.6%), A.R:R 4.0:1. Stop-loss: $1132.83.

What are the risks of investing in MPWR?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum.

Is MPWR overvalued or undervalued?

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. trades at a P/E of 74.3 (forward 34.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about MPWR?

23 analysts cover MPWR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $1843.

What does Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. do?Monolithic Power Systems designs and sells fabless analog and mixed-signal power management ICs across...

Monolithic Power Systems designs and sells fabless analog and mixed-signal power management ICs across storage/computing (26%), enterprise data (25%), automotive (21%), and other end markets, with 4,501 employees worldwide. The company generates revenue through distributors, with 92% of sales to customers in Asia in 2025.

Related stocks: SIMO (Silicon Motion Technology Corpo) · ALAB (Astera Labs, Inc.) · NXPI (NXP Semiconductors N.V.) · ADI (Analog Devices, Inc.) · MCHP (Microchip Technology Incorporat)
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