Value
3.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.4 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.7 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 42.5x
- ▸PEG: 1.75
MPWR · Why this verdict
Why Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Monolithic Power Systems earns a wide economic moat score, generates revenue growing at 26% year-over-year, and maintains a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9, positioning it as a high-quality compounder in the semiconductor industry. Quality breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 20% year-over-year for the next 4 quarters, confirming that the company's product positioning in its addressable markets is sustaining above-market expansion. | →Stable |
| CounterA 54.8x forward price-to-earnings ratio means even a modest growth deceleration to below 15% could cause a significant multiple compression and price decline. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 2.4%, demonstrating precise execution and consistent delivery against analyst models, including a beat of 4.1% in the most recent quarter. Earnings | The earnings beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters with each quarter's result exceeding consensus by at least 2%, supporting the premium valuation multiple. | →Stable |
| CounterAverage surprise of only 2.4% is narrow, and at a 54.8x forward multiple, any earnings miss — even a minor one — could trigger a disproportionate price decline. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 54.8x and with the current price of $1,652 above the analyst take-profit target of $1,680, the stock offers only 1.7% upside to resistance and a negative asymmetry ratio, making it difficult to justify new purchases at these levels. Targets | The stock price pulls back below $1,550 within 3 months, bringing the risk-reward to at least 2:1 upside-to-downside before the next entry opportunity. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh-quality semiconductor compounders with durable moats and consistent beat records often sustain premium multiples for extended periods, and volume accumulation in the shares supports continued institutional demand. | ||
The stock is within 3.6% of its 52-week high with rising volume accumulation, the 200-day moving average positioned favorably above the price, and the 52-week position near the top of its range, indicating solid price momentum despite the asymmetry concern. Momentum breakdown | The stock achieves a new 52-week high above $1,700 within 6 months, confirming that momentum can sustain valuation even at elevated multiples. | →Stable |
| CounterNear 52-week highs combined with negative asymmetry and high implied volatility of 107% create a setup where mean reversion is a higher-probability path than continued appreciation. | ||
Monolithic Power Systems earns a wide economic moat score, generates revenue growing at 26% year-over-year, and maintains a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9, positioning it as a high-quality compounder in the semiconductor industry.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 20% year-over-year for the next 4 quarters, confirming that the company's product positioning in its addressable markets is sustaining above-market expansion.
CounterA 54.8x forward price-to-earnings ratio means even a modest growth deceleration to below 15% could cause a significant multiple compression and price decline.
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 2.4%, demonstrating precise execution and consistent delivery against analyst models, including a beat of 4.1% in the most recent quarter.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters with each quarter's result exceeding consensus by at least 2%, supporting the premium valuation multiple.
CounterAverage surprise of only 2.4% is narrow, and at a 54.8x forward multiple, any earnings miss — even a minor one — could trigger a disproportionate price decline.
At a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 54.8x and with the current price of $1,652 above the analyst take-profit target of $1,680, the stock offers only 1.7% upside to resistance and a negative asymmetry ratio, making it difficult to justify new purchases at these levels.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- The stock price pulls back below $1,550 within 3 months, bringing the risk-reward to at least 2:1 upside-to-downside before the next entry opportunity.
CounterHigh-quality semiconductor compounders with durable moats and consistent beat records often sustain premium multiples for extended periods, and volume accumulation in the shares supports continued institutional demand.
The stock is within 3.6% of its 52-week high with rising volume accumulation, the 200-day moving average positioned favorably above the price, and the 52-week position near the top of its range, indicating solid price momentum despite the asymmetry concern.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock achieves a new 52-week high above $1,700 within 6 months, confirming that momentum can sustain valuation even at elevated multiples.
CounterNear 52-week highs combined with negative asymmetry and high implied volatility of 107% create a setup where mean reversion is a higher-probability path than continued appreciation.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Monolithic Power Systems has delivered 4 consecutive earnings beats, a wide economic moat, and 26% revenue growth, but trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 54.8x that exceeds analyst targets, leaving the risk-reward unfavorable at current prices despite strong underlying business quality.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.5 |
| ROA | 8.1 |
| Gross margin | 7.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.2 |
| FCF quality | 5.5 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 23%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 72% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
9.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.0 |
| EPS growth | 9.9 |
- ▸Strong growth: 26% YoY
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.3 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 32) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
9.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news sentiment | 10.0 |
| Analyst rating | 8.5 |
| Price target | 9.1 |
- ▸Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
- ▸Analyst upside: 39%
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $192,631,831 (0.304% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.7 |
| quality rank | 7.4 |
| growth rank | 5.7 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.2 |
| support resistance | 9.3 |
| 52w position | 5.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.8 |
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 4.3 |
| debt equity | 7.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 5.01
- ▸High IV: 92%
Catalyst
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.7 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_E_WIDE_MOAT|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.4<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.39
Upside
+20.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (8.1) with weak momentum (3.3)
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.71>1.3
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.3<4.5 outcome against Growth at 9.4 and asymmetric R:R of 1.39.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.4, Sentiment at 9.1, and Quality at 8.1; the weakest are Value at 3.1, Momentum at 3.3, and Insider at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.39 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Semiconductor Moat Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling a deceleration in the growth trajectory.
- P2Earnings Beat Execution
Trip ifEarnings miss by more than 5% in any 1 of the next 2 quarters, breaking the 4-quarter consecutive beat streak.
- P3Rich Valuation Above Target
Trip ifThe stock price falls below $1,500, representing more than 9% downside from current levels and approaching the stop-loss at $1,537.
- P4Near 52 Week High Momentum
Trip ifThe stock price declines below the 200-day moving average and volume distribution (falling on-balance volume) persists for more than 30 days.