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MNSOMINISO Group Holding LimitedHold7.0·$12.31+0.82%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

MINISO trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 7.6x with 28% revenue growth and a 3-quarter earnings beat streak, offering a compelling value-growth combination, though a confirmed price downtrend and elevated leverage temper the near-term outlook.

Thesis pillars

  • High Analyst Upside ConsensusDeteriorating
  • Downtrend Leverage HeadwindDeteriorating
  • Deep Value Growth CombinationStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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MINISO Group Holding Limited (MNSO) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $12.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Negative momentum.

MINISO Group Holding Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail and wholesale of design-led lifestyle and pop toy products in Mainland China, the rest of Asia, North and Latin America, Europe, and internationally. The company offers products in various... Read more

$12.31+46.0% A.UpsideScore 7.0/10#1 of 23 Specialty Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield5.45%Payout66.48%
Stop $11.50Target $17.95(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 6.1:1
Analyst target$19.95+62.0%15 analysts
$17.95our TP
$12.31price
$19.95mean
$24

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $12.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 23d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-27
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 20, 202623d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.3
P/E (Fwd)7.2
Mkt Cap$3.6B
EV/EBITDA1.9
Profit Mgn9.0%
ROE18.8%
Rev Growth28.5%
Beta0.08
Dividend5.45%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.67bearish
IV64%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
4.5
Macd
7.7
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
4.1
Gap
5.0
Support Resistance
5.2
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 6.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 23d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.37Resistance $13.30

Price Targets

$12
$18
A.Upside+46.0%
A.R:R6.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-20 (23d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MNSO stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $12.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $17.95 (+45.8%), stop $11.50 (−7.0%), A.R:R 6.1:1. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MNSO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.95 (+46.0% upside). Target $17.95 (+45.8%), stop $11.50 (−7.0%), A.R:R 6.1:1. Stop-loss: $11.50.

What are the risks of investing in MNSO?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is MNSO overvalued or undervalued?

MINISO Group Holding Limited trades at a P/E of 12.3 (forward 7.2). TrendMatrix value score: 9.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MNSO?

24 analysts cover MNSO with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $20.

What does MINISO Group Holding Limited do?MINISO Group Holding Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail and wholesale of design-led...

MINISO Group Holding Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail and wholesale of design-led lifestyle and pop toy products in Mainland China, the rest of Asia, North and Latin America, Europe, and internationally. The company offers products in various categories, including home decor products, small electronics, textiles, accessories, beauty tools, toys, cosmetics, personal care products, snacks, fragrances and perfumes, and stationeries and gifts under the MINISO brand; and blind boxes, toy bricks, model figures, model kits, collectible dolls, Ichiban Kuji, and other popular toys under the TOP TOY brand. It also engages in brand licensing activity; and online sale of lifestyle products. MINISO Group Holding Limited was founded in 2013 and is based in Guangzhou, China.

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