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MIDDThe Middleby CorporationHold6.2·$133.88+2.09%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Middleby Corporation combines a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak averaging about 10% above consensus, a PEG ratio of 0.31 indicating valuation well below the growth rate, and a confirmed technical breakout — but with only 3.9% headroom to the near-term target and elevated put positioning, the setup is better suited to maintaining an existing position than initiating a new one.

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Earnings Streak QualityStable
  • Valuation Growth Peg DiscountDeteriorating
  • Technical Breakout AccumulationImproving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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The Middleby Corporation (MIDD) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $133.88, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Thin upside margin: 7.5%.

The Middleby Corporation, a Delaware corporation ("Middleby" or the "company"), through its operating subsidiary Middleby Marshall Inc., a Delaware corporation ("Middleby Marshall") and its subsidiaries, is a leader in the design, manufacture, marketing, distribution, and... Read more

$133.88+7.5% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#10 of 58 Specialty Industrial Machinery
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield8.94%
Stop $124.51Target $143.98(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$165.50+23.6%6 analysts
$143.98our TP
$133.88price
$165.50mean
$206

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $133.88, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Thin upside margin: 7.5%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26

Recent Developments — The Middleby Corporation

Material events (past 30 days)

  • 8K Jul 6, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Delaware | | 1-9973 | | 36-3352497 (State or Other Jurisdiction of Incorporation) | | (Commission File Number) | | (IRS Employer Identification No.) | | ---|---|--- 1400 Toastmaster Drive, Elgin, Illinois | | 60120 (Address of Principal Executive Offices) | | (Zip Code) (847) 741-3300 (Registrant...

Generated 2026-07-26T06:22:14Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202610d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Positive insider activity
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.5%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.0
P/E (Fwd)15.0
Mkt Cap$6.1B
EV/EBITDA11.1
Profit Mgn-12.7%
ROE12.0%
Rev Growth15.0%
Beta1.33
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.30bearish
IV153%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-07-06Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Delaware | | 1-9973 | | 36-3352497 (State or Other Jurisdiction of Incorporation) | | (Commission File Number) | | (IRS Employer Identification No.) | | ---|---|--- 1400 Toastmaster Drive, Elgin, Illinois | | 60120 (Address of Principal Executive Offices) | | (Zip Code) (847) 741-3300 (Registrant...
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-26Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Adoption of Executive Severance Plan On May 20, 2026, the Compensation Committee ("Compensation Committee") of the Board of Directors of the Middleby Corporation (the "Company") adopted The Middleby Corporation Executive Severance Plan (the "ESP"), under which the Company's named executive office...
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentEARNINGS PROXIMITY 10d<=14d (soft)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $128.09Resistance $148.54

Price Targets

$125
$144
A.Upside+7.5%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 1.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (10d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MIDD stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $133.88, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Thin upside margin: 7.5%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $143.98 (+7.5%), stop $124.51 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.0:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MIDD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $143.98 (+7.5% upside). Target $143.98 (+7.5%), stop $124.51 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.0:1. Stop-loss: $124.51.

What are the risks of investing in MIDD?

Thin upside margin: 7.5%.

Is MIDD overvalued or undervalued?

The Middleby Corporation trades at a P/E of 18.0 (forward 15.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MIDD?

17 analysts cover MIDD with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $166.

What does The Middleby Corporation do?The Middleby Corporation, a Delaware corporation ("Middleby" or the "company"), through its operating subsidiary...

The Middleby Corporation, a Delaware corporation ("Middleby" or the "company"), through its operating subsidiary Middleby Marshall Inc., a Delaware corporation ("Middleby Marshall") and its subsidiaries, is a leader in the design, manufacture, marketing, distribution, and service of a broad line of (i) foodservice equipment, integrated IoT solutions and universal controllers used in all types of commercial restaurants and institutional kitchens and (ii) food preparation, cooking, baking, chil...

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