Value
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.3 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.33
MIDD · Why this verdict
Why The Middleby (MIDD) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Four consecutive quarterly earnings beats with an average surprise of approximately 10% and a perfect financial-health score of 9 of 9 reflect a business delivering consistently above expectations with strong underlying balance sheet discipline. Catalyst track record | A fifth consecutive beat at the next earnings report in approximately 50 days extends the streak and signals continued operational outperformance. | →Stable |
| CounterAverage beats of 10% could narrow as analyst estimates catch up to the company's execution pace; near its 52-week high, any stumble against elevated expectations could disproportionately punish the stock. | ||
At a forward P/E of 15.0x and a PEG ratio of 0.31, the stock is priced at a meaningful discount to its growth rate, indicating the market has not fully credited the earnings expansion. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E re-rates above 18x over the next 12 months as the market prices in the sustained earnings growth. | →Stable |
| CounterA low PEG advantage is only as durable as the underlying growth rate; near the 52-week high, any guidance revision reducing the growth assumption could compress the multiple and eliminate the apparent discount. | ||
A golden cross pattern, price above all moving averages, RSI at 70, bullish MACD, and rising on-balance volume together describe a technically confirmed breakout with sustained buyer accumulation. Momentum breakdown | The stock continues to hold above all major moving averages and on-balance volume trends higher for at least 3 consecutive months. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI at 70 is approaching overbought territory and the stock is only 3.5% from its 52-week high; a period of consolidation or pullback is more probable than an immediate further extension. | ||
A put/call ratio of 2.71 — the primary flagged risk factor — indicates unusually heavy downside positioning relative to calls, suggesting a meaningful portion of the options market is hedged against or positioned for a decline. Risk breakdown | If the hedging overhang clears, the put/call ratio falls below 1.5 within 6 weeks as near-term options positioning normalizes. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy put positioning can reflect institutional hedges against an existing long position rather than outright bearish conviction; in a confirmed breakout, put buyers may simply be expressing risk management discipline rather than directional pessimism. | ||
With only 3.9% headroom to the near-term take-profit target at $169.87 and a reward-to-risk ratio below the threshold for a compelling new position, the current entry point does not offer a favorable setup for fresh capital despite the strong fundamental backdrop. Bear case | If a better entry emerges, a pullback toward $150.00 would restore more than 13% upside to the $169.87 target. | →Stable |
| CounterA stock in a confirmed breakout near its 52-week high can sustain momentum past initial price targets when underlying earnings drivers remain intact; the remaining upside may expand quickly if the next earnings beat arrives. | ||
Four consecutive quarterly earnings beats with an average surprise of approximately 10% and a perfect financial-health score of 9 of 9 reflect a business delivering consistently above expectations with strong underlying balance sheet discipline.
→StableCatalyst track record
- Expectation
- A fifth consecutive beat at the next earnings report in approximately 50 days extends the streak and signals continued operational outperformance.
CounterAverage beats of 10% could narrow as analyst estimates catch up to the company's execution pace; near its 52-week high, any stumble against elevated expectations could disproportionately punish the stock.
At a forward P/E of 15.0x and a PEG ratio of 0.31, the stock is priced at a meaningful discount to its growth rate, indicating the market has not fully credited the earnings expansion.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E re-rates above 18x over the next 12 months as the market prices in the sustained earnings growth.
CounterA low PEG advantage is only as durable as the underlying growth rate; near the 52-week high, any guidance revision reducing the growth assumption could compress the multiple and eliminate the apparent discount.
A golden cross pattern, price above all moving averages, RSI at 70, bullish MACD, and rising on-balance volume together describe a technically confirmed breakout with sustained buyer accumulation.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock continues to hold above all major moving averages and on-balance volume trends higher for at least 3 consecutive months.
CounterRSI at 70 is approaching overbought territory and the stock is only 3.5% from its 52-week high; a period of consolidation or pullback is more probable than an immediate further extension.
A put/call ratio of 2.71 — the primary flagged risk factor — indicates unusually heavy downside positioning relative to calls, suggesting a meaningful portion of the options market is hedged against or positioned for a decline.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- If the hedging overhang clears, the put/call ratio falls below 1.5 within 6 weeks as near-term options positioning normalizes.
CounterHeavy put positioning can reflect institutional hedges against an existing long position rather than outright bearish conviction; in a confirmed breakout, put buyers may simply be expressing risk management discipline rather than directional pessimism.
With only 3.9% headroom to the near-term take-profit target at $169.87 and a reward-to-risk ratio below the threshold for a compelling new position, the current entry point does not offer a favorable setup for fresh capital despite the strong fundamental backdrop.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- If a better entry emerges, a pullback toward $150.00 would restore more than 13% upside to the $169.87 target.
CounterA stock in a confirmed breakout near its 52-week high can sustain momentum past initial price targets when underlying earnings drivers remain intact; the remaining upside may expand quickly if the next earnings beat arrives.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Middleby Corporation combines a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak averaging about 10% above consensus, a PEG ratio of 0.31 indicating valuation well below the growth rate, and a confirmed technical breakout — but with only 3.9% headroom to the near-term target and elevated put positioning, the setup is better suited to maintaining an existing position than initiating a new one.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.0 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 3.7 |
| Op margin | 6.5 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.9 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
8.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.7 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.4 |
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.6 |
| quality rank | 2.6 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.4 |
| support resistance | 0.5 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.7 |
| days to cover | 6.3 |
| volatility | 5.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.7 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 6.2 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.3 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.18
Upside
-2.5%
Downside
13.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.33>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.1; weakest: Technical at 3.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.1, Catalyst at 7.1, and Value at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 3.9, Peer rank at 4.2, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.18 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Streak Quality
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in the next reported quarter.
- P2Valuation Growth Peg Discount
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0 following a cut to forward earnings estimates.
- P3Technical Breakout Accumulation
Trip ifStock falls below its 200-day moving average and on-balance volume declines for 6 consecutive weeks.
- P4Elevated Put Positioning Headwind
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.5 for 3 consecutive weeks.
- P5Thin Upside Constrains New Entry
Trip ifStock pulls back below $150.00, restoring more than 13% upside to the $169.87 take-profit target.