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MMacy's IncSell5.4·$25.09+1.66%
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Macy's Inc (M) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Department Stores

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $25.09 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.8% away).

Macy's, Inc. operates 665 stores under Macy's, Bloomingdale's, and Bluemercury, principally in U.S. urban and suburban markets, generating $21,764 million in net sales in fiscal 2025. Revenue comes from department store merchandise plus a Citibank credit card profit-sharing... Read more

$25.09+0.5% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#3 of 4 Department Stores
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield11.54%
IncomeYield3.10%(5y avg 7.85%)Payout30.52%sustainable
Stop $23.19Target $25.07(resistance)A.R:R -1.7:1
Analyst target$21.50-14.3%10 analysts
$25.07our TP
$25.09price
$21.50mean
$9
$27

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $25.09 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.8% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Macy's Inc

About Macy's Inc

Macy's, Inc. operated 665 stores, websites, and mobile apps under three nameplates — Macy's, Bloomingdale's, and Bluemercury — generating $21,764 million in total net sales during fiscal 2025. The company served roughly 40 million active consumers and employed approximately 90,134 full-time and part-time U.S. employees at January 31, 2026, with stores concentrated in densely populated urban and suburban areas across the United States.

Women's Accessories, Shoes, Cosmetics and Fragrances represented the largest merchandise family at $9,128 million in fiscal 2025, followed by Women's Apparel at $4,764 million, Men's and Kids' at $4,659 million, and Home/Other at $3,213 million. The company maintains a portfolio of private label brands across all three nameplates — including Charter Club, Bar III, On 34th, and I-N-C — that support margin and differentiation. Beyond merchandise, Macy's generates revenue through a Citibank credit card profit-sharing program (net credit card revenues were $669 million, or 3.1% of net sales in fiscal 2025, under a Program Agreement extending to March 31, 2030) and Macy's Media Network advertising. No individual supplier exceeded 4% of purchases in fiscal 2025. The company competes with department stores, off-price retailers, specialty stores, mass merchants, online marketplaces, and direct-to-consumer brands. Minimum wage increases, tight labor markets, and healthcare cost inflation have pressured margins in recent years.

Show full overview

The Bold New Chapter strategy, in its second year, pairs closures of unproductive Macy's stores with renovation of 125 go-forward locations (the Reimagine 125 initiative). The 10-K identifies a potential migration of sales from brick-and-mortar to digital platforms as a structural concern that could trigger additional store closures and restructuring costs. Because a disproportionate share of revenues is generated in the holiday fourth quarter, a shortfall in that period would have an outsized negative impact on annual results. Real estate monetization — including sales of stores and non-store assets such as warehouses and parking garages — remains subject to the inherent volatility of real estate market cycles.

See also: Consumer Cyclical · Department Stores

From Macy's Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Sep 2, 202678d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive momentum
Margin of safety: 32%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.8% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.2
P/E (Fwd)10.8
Mkt Cap$6.5B
EV/EBITDA7.3
Profit Mgn2.9%
ROE14.4%
Rev Growth2.1%
Beta1.50
Dividend3.10%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.22bearish
IV57%elevated
Max Pain$3-88.0% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-18Item 5.02LOW
    Shareholders approved amendment and restatement of Macy's 2024 Equity and Incentive Compensation Plan at the May 15, 2026 annual meeting; plan had been approved by the Board on March 26, 2026. Routine compensatory arrangement update.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-26Item 5.02LOW
    Directors Richard Clark, Douglas W. Sesler, and Tracey Zhen notified the Board they will not stand for re-election at the May 15, 2026 annual meeting; no disagreement with company cited. Board size decreased from 13 to 10 members.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.5
Value Rank
3.3
Quality Rank
4.2
GatesA.R:R -1.7=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
74 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $18.22Resistance $25.58

Price Targets

$23
$25
A.Upside-0.1%
A.R:R-1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-25.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-02 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is M stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $25.09 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.8% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $23.19. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the M stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.07 (+0.5% upside). Prior stop was $23.19. Stop-loss: $23.19.

What are the risks of investing in M?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.8% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.

Is M overvalued or undervalued?

Macy's Inc trades at a P/E of 10.2 (forward 10.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about M?

19 analysts cover M with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $22.

What does Macy's Inc do?Macy's, Inc. operates 665 stores under Macy's, Bloomingdale's, and Bluemercury, principally in U.S. urban and suburban...

Macy's, Inc. operates 665 stores under Macy's, Bloomingdale's, and Bluemercury, principally in U.S. urban and suburban markets, generating $21,764 million in net sales in fiscal 2025. Revenue comes from department store merchandise plus a Citibank credit card profit-sharing program and Macy's Media Network advertising, serving roughly 40 million active consumers.

Related stocks: DDS (Dillard's, Inc.) · PLBL (Polibeli Group Ltd) · KSS (Kohl's Corporation) · ATAT (Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limite) · MNSO (MINISO Group Holding Limited)
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