Macy's has delivered four consecutive earnings beats with an average surprise of 150%, and price momentum is firmly positive, but the stock has run to within 1.1% of its resistance target with an unfavorable risk/reward of 0.16-to-1, making the current entry unattractive despite an impressive recent execution record.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Quality And Short Interest Risk→Stable
- Strong Price Momentum→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Macy's Inc (M) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Consumer Cyclical · Department Stores
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $23.68 — A.R:R is negative (-2.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.
Macy's, Inc. operates 665 stores under Macy's, Bloomingdale's, and Bluemercury, principally in U.S. urban and suburban markets, generating $21,764 million in net sales in fiscal 2025. Revenue comes from department store merchandise plus a Citibank credit card profit-sharing... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $23.68 — A.R:R is negative (-2.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 59d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Macy's Inc
About Macy's Inc
Macy's, Inc. operated 665 stores, websites, and mobile apps under three nameplates — Macy's, Bloomingdale's, and Bluemercury — generating $21,764 million in total net sales during fiscal 2025. The company served roughly 40 million active consumers and employed approximately 90,134 full-time and part-time U.S. employees at January 31, 2026, with stores concentrated in densely populated urban and suburban areas across the United States.
Women's Accessories, Shoes, Cosmetics and Fragrances represented the largest merchandise family at $9,128 million in fiscal 2025, followed by Women's Apparel at $4,764 million, Men's and Kids' at $4,659 million, and Home/Other at $3,213 million. The company maintains a portfolio of private label brands across all three nameplates — including Charter Club, Bar III, On 34th, and I-N-C — that support margin and differentiation. Beyond merchandise, Macy's generates revenue through a Citibank credit card profit-sharing program (net credit card revenues were $669 million, or 3.1% of net sales in fiscal 2025, under a Program Agreement extending to March 31, 2030) and Macy's Media Network advertising. No individual supplier exceeded 4% of purchases in fiscal 2025. The company competes with department stores, off-price retailers, specialty stores, mass merchants, online marketplaces, and direct-to-consumer brands. Minimum wage increases, tight labor markets, and healthcare cost inflation have pressured margins in recent years.
Show full overview
The Bold New Chapter strategy, in its second year, pairs closures of unproductive Macy's stores with renovation of 125 go-forward locations (the Reimagine 125 initiative). The 10-K identifies a potential migration of sales from brick-and-mortar to digital platforms as a structural concern that could trigger additional store closures and restructuring costs. Because a disproportionate share of revenues is generated in the holiday fourth quarter, a shortfall in that period would have an outsized negative impact on annual results. Real estate monetization — including sales of stores and non-store assets such as warehouses and parking garages — remains subject to the inherent volatility of real estate market cycles.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Department Stores
From Macy's Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — Macy's Inc
Latest news
- NEWS Macy's (M) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: Here's Why - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Macy's (M) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: Here's Why - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com negative
- NEWS Macy's Inc Stock 12‑Month Price Target Raised to $19.33, Implies 11% Downside - TradingView — TradingView negative
- NEWS Macy's Inc Stock 12‑Month Price Target Raised to $19, Implies 12% Downside - TradingView — TradingView negative
- NEWS Macy’s Shares Advance After Strong First-Quarter Results and Improved Full-Year Forecast (M) - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
Generated 2026-07-07T11:41:56Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-18Item 5.02LOWShareholders approved amendment and restatement of Macy's 2024 Equity and Incentive Compensation Plan at the May 15, 2026 annual meeting; plan had been approved by the Board on March 26, 2026. Routine compensatory arrangement update.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-26Item 5.02LOWDirectors Richard Clark, Douglas W. Sesler, and Tracey Zhen notified the Board they will not stand for re-election at the May 15, 2026 annual meeting; no disagreement with company cited. Board size decreased from 13 to 10 members.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $23.68 — A.R:R is negative (-2.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $22.02. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $25.58 (+8.0% upside). Prior stop was $22.02. Stop-loss: $22.02.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.
Macy's Inc trades at a P/E of 9.6 (forward 10.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
19 analysts cover M with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $22.
What does Macy's Inc do?Macy's, Inc. operates 665 stores under Macy's, Bloomingdale's, and Bluemercury, principally in U.S. urban and suburban...
Macy's, Inc. operates 665 stores under Macy's, Bloomingdale's, and Bluemercury, principally in U.S. urban and suburban markets, generating $21,764 million in net sales in fiscal 2025. Revenue comes from department store merchandise plus a Citibank credit card profit-sharing program and Macy's Media Network advertising, serving roughly 40 million active consumers.