LLY at $1064.74 is an elite compounder (Rule of 40 = 68 elite, ROE 107%, 35% margins, 4/4 beats, 56% revenue growth) with V9 BREAKOUT setup and HIGH conviction sizing — but asymmetry at 0.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot fails (2.7% upside to TP $1093), D/E 1.4 leverage penalty, and elevated put/call 1.45 produce STARTER; action_note 'Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet.'
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Engine signal |
|---|---|---|
Quality 8.2 with notes 'Excellent ROE: 107%', 'Strong margins: 35%', 'Wide economic moat', 'Compounder quality: strong returns + growth', 'Rule of 40: 68 (elite)' — bull_case 'High-quality business' confirms. Quality breakdown | Rule of 40 component stays at 9.0+ and ROE component stays at 10.0 over next 2 refreshes. | →stable |
| CounterFCF/NI 36% RED FLAG shows incretin capex is depressing cash conversion; if FCF stays below 50% past 4 quarters, the 'elite' compounder label decays. | ||
Bull_case 'Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)' with avg_surprise_pct 16.77% — Q1 2026 beat 25.9%, Q3 2025 beat 19.15% — earnings power is structurally above consensus and accelerating. Bull case (item 1) | Beat count holds at 4/4 with avg_surprise_pct above 10% by the 2026-08-05 print. | →stable |
| CounterGLP-1 demand growth depends on supply ramp; if Mounjaro/Zepbound supply lags expectations, the beat magnitudes compress to 5-10%. | ||
V9 setup_type BREAKOUT (golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish) with suitability_rationale 'Beta 0.48<0.8, Div 65.0%, Q=8.2' — CONSERVATIVE-rated stock confirming uptrend. Chart pattern detection | Momentum subscore stays above 6.0 with RSI between 60-75 on next refresh. | →stable |
| CounterRSI 68 approaching overbought + technical bollinger 1.2 + support_resistance 0.7 show price is far above support — breakout exhaustion risk if no catalyst follow-through. | ||
Quality 8.2 with notes 'Excellent ROE: 107%', 'Strong margins: 35%', 'Wide economic moat', 'Compounder quality: strong returns + growth', 'Rule of 40: 68 (elite)' — bull_case 'High-quality business' confirms.
→stable- Expectation
- Rule of 40 component stays at 9.0+ and ROE component stays at 10.0 over next 2 refreshes.
CounterFCF/NI 36% RED FLAG shows incretin capex is depressing cash conversion; if FCF stays below 50% past 4 quarters, the 'elite' compounder label decays.
Bull_case 'Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)' with avg_surprise_pct 16.77% — Q1 2026 beat 25.9%, Q3 2025 beat 19.15% — earnings power is structurally above consensus and accelerating.
→stable- Expectation
- Beat count holds at 4/4 with avg_surprise_pct above 10% by the 2026-08-05 print.
CounterGLP-1 demand growth depends on supply ramp; if Mounjaro/Zepbound supply lags expectations, the beat magnitudes compress to 5-10%.
V9 setup_type BREAKOUT (golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish) with suitability_rationale 'Beta 0.48<0.8, Div 65.0%, Q=8.2' — CONSERVATIVE-rated stock confirming uptrend.
→stable- Expectation
- Momentum subscore stays above 6.0 with RSI between 60-75 on next refresh.
CounterRSI 68 approaching overbought + technical bollinger 1.2 + support_resistance 0.7 show price is far above support — breakout exhaustion risk if no catalyst follow-through.
▸ Show 2 more pillars (SSR-indexed, visually truncated)▾ Show fewer
V9 asymmetry at 0.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot gate failure with v9.upside_pct 2.7 vs downside_pct 15.0 and bear_case 'Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining' — TP $1093.59 leaves $29 above $1064.74 spot.
→stable- Expectation
- Analyst take_profit advances above $1170 (10%+ above spot) restoring asymmetry_ratio above 1.5 within 2 refreshes.
CounterGLP-1 TAM is being revised upward; sell-side targets routinely lag during pharma re-rating phases — gate trip is target-anchoring lag, not a top.
Action_note '...the chart hasn't confirmed yet' and STARTER sizing with entry_target $970.34 (ma50_sticky, ~9% below spot) — accumulate the GLP-1 compounder on weakness rather than chase the breakout.
→stable- Expectation
- Price pulls back toward entry_target $970.34 within 2 refreshes restoring asymmetry above 2.0.
CounterGLP-1 demand re-acceleration could prevent any meaningful pullback — waiting may mean watching the stock advance to $1200 before any -9% pullback.
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Stock Analysis
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
Wait for pullback to $957.74. BUY gates pass at $1105.00, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and near 52-week high (3.8% away) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $957.74 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.
Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products in the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and internationally. The company offers cardiometabolic health products, including Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100,... Read more
Wait for pullback to $957.74. BUY gates pass at $1105.00, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and near 52-week high (3.8% away) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $957.74 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 1.45, quality 8.2/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 68d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: conservative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-05-30Recent Developments — Eli Lilly and Company
Latest news
- Eli Lilly Stock Could Rise Sharply After Earnings (NYSE:LLY) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- Here's How Much Traders Expect Eli Lilly Stock To Move After Earnings - investopedia.com — investopedia.com neutral
- Here's How Much Traders Expect Eli Lilly Stock To Move After Earnings - Investopedia — Investopedia positive
- What triggered Eli Lilly shares' latest price pullback - Traders Union — Traders Union negative
- Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Declined in Q1 Despite Strong Results - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
Generated 2026-05-30T00:22:22Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $957.74. BUY gates pass at $1105.00, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and near 52-week high (3.8% away) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $957.74 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 1.45, quality 8.2/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $1126.12 (+1.9%), stop $890.78 (−24.0%), Setup A.R:R 3.7:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $1126.12 (+17.5% upside). Target $1126.12 (+1.9%), stop $890.78 (−24.0%), Setup A.R:R 3.7:1. Stop-loss: $890.78.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.8% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5.
Eli Lilly and Company trades at a P/E of 40.0 (forward 25.3). TrendMatrix value score: 3.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
39 analysts cover LLY with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $1215.
What does Eli Lilly and Company do?Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products in the United...
Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products in the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and internationally. The company offers cardiometabolic health products, including Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, Humulin U-500 for diabetes; Jardiance, Mounjaro, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes; and Zepbound for obesity. It also provides oncology products, such as Cyramza for the second-line treatment of gastric cancer or gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal cancers and head and neck cancers; Inluriyo for breast cancer; Jaypirca for chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma; Retevmo for the treatment of metastatic NSCLC; TYVYT for classic hodgkin's lymphoma; and Verzenio for breast cancer. In addition, the company offers immunology products, which include Ebglyss for severe atopic dermatitis; Olumiant for rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, severe alopecia areata, and COVID-19; Omvoh for ulcerative colitis; and Taltz for plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and non-radiographic axial spondylarthritis. Further, it provides Emgality for migraine prevention and episodic cluster headache, as well as Kisubla for symptomatic Alzheimer's disease. The company has collaborations with Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc. for the Jardiance product family; and F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd and Genentech, Inc. for lebrikizumab, as well as license agreements with Almirall, S.A. for Ebglyss; and Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd for orforglipron. Eli Lilly and Company was founded in 1876 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.