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ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc.Sell5.3·$262.57+2.00%
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Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $262.57 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5.

The Company's ticker symbol is ITW. The Company is a global manufacturer of a diversified range of industrial products and equipment with 88 divisions in 49 countries. As of December 31, 2025, the Company employed approximately 43,000 people.

$262.57-1.6% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#29 of 48 Specialty Industrial Machinery
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.99%
IncomeYield2.50%(5y avg 2.26%)Payout58.77%sustainable
Stop $253.69Target $258.20(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$274.54+4.6%16 analysts
$258.20our TP
$262.57price
$274.54mean
$219
$317

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $262.57 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15

Recent Developments — Illinois Tool Works Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • 8K May 22, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On May 19, 2026, Randall J. Scheuneman, Vice President & Chief Accounting Officer and Principal Accounting Officer of Illinois Tool Works Inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202643d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.9
P/E (Fwd)21.2
Mkt Cap$74.1B
EV/EBITDA17.4
Profit Mgn19.3%
ROE96.8%
Rev Growth4.6%
Beta1.03
Dividend2.50%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.85neutral
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$155-41.0% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-22Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On May 19, 2026, Randall J. Scheuneman, Vice President & Chief Accounting Officer and Principal Accounting Officer of Illinois Tool Works Inc.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.4
52w Position
7.4
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 43d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $242.05Resistance $263.47

Price Targets

$254
$258
A.Upside-1.7%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (43d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ITW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $262.57 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $253.69. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

What is the ITW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $258.20 (-1.6% upside). Prior stop was $253.69. Stop-loss: $253.69.

What are the risks of investing in ITW?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5.

Is ITW overvalued or undervalued?

Illinois Tool Works Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.9 (forward 21.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ITW?

26 analysts cover ITW with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $275.

What does Illinois Tool Works Inc. do?The Company's ticker symbol is ITW. The Company is a global manufacturer of a diversified range of industrial products...

The Company's ticker symbol is ITW. The Company is a global manufacturer of a diversified range of industrial products and equipment with 88 divisions in 49 countries. As of December 31, 2025, the Company employed approximately 43,000 people.

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