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Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $256.95 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5.

The Company's ticker symbol is ITW. The Company is a global manufacturer of a diversified range of industrial products and equipment with 88 divisions in 49 countries. As of December 31, 2025, the Company employed approximately 43,000 people.

$256.95+4.8% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#33 of 48 Specialty Industrial Machinery
Stop $243.49Target $269.28(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$275.88+7.4%16 analysts
$269.28our TP
$256.95price
$275.88mean
$219
$310

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $256.95 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.70, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Recent Earnings detected in news
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5
Weak overall score: 5.0/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.3
P/E (Fwd)21.9
Mkt Cap$76.6B
EV/EBITDA18.2
Profit Mgn19.1%
ROE93.7%
Rev Growth4.1%
Beta1.15
Dividend2.42%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.39bullish
IV37%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-23Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Delaware | | 1-4797 | | 36-1258310 (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation) | | (Commission File No.) | | (I.R.S.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.5
Earnings Growth
3.5
GatesMomentum 2.4<4.5A.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST EARNINGS 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $247.00Resistance $274.78

Price Targets

$243
$269
A.Upside+4.8%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.3% upside)
! Momentum score 2.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ITW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $256.95 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $243.49. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the ITW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $269.28 (+4.8% upside). Prior stop was $243.49. Stop-loss: $243.49.

What are the risks of investing in ITW?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5; Weak overall score: 5.0/10.

Is ITW overvalued or undervalued?

Illinois Tool Works Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.3 (forward 21.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ITW?

26 analysts cover ITW with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $276.

What does Illinois Tool Works Inc. do?The Company's ticker symbol is ITW. The Company is a global manufacturer of a diversified range of industrial products...

The Company's ticker symbol is ITW. The Company is a global manufacturer of a diversified range of industrial products and equipment with 88 divisions in 49 countries. As of December 31, 2025, the Company employed approximately 43,000 people.

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