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Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $249.46 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

The Company's ticker symbol is ITW. The Company is a global manufacturer of a diversified range of industrial products and equipment with 88 divisions in 49 countries. As of December 31, 2025, the Company employed approximately 43,000 people.

$249.46+7.8% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#22 of 48 Specialty Industrial Machinery
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.09%
IncomeYield2.58%(5y avg 2.25%)Payout58.77%sustainable
Stop $238.96Target $268.87(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$274.98+10.2%16 analysts
$268.87our TP
$249.46price
$274.98mean
$219
$317

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $249.46 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Illinois Tool Works Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:56:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.5 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.1
P/E (Fwd)20.5
Mkt Cap$71.8B
EV/EBITDA16.9
Profit Mgn19.3%
ROE96.8%
Rev Growth4.6%
Beta1.05
Dividend2.58%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.88neutral
IV31%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-23Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Delaware | | 1-4797 | | 36-1258310 (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation) | | (Commission File No.) | | (I.R.S.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
27 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $246.35Resistance $274.36

Price Targets

$239
$269
A.Upside+7.8%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.8% upside)
! Momentum score 4.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ITW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $249.46 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $238.96. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

What is the ITW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $268.87 (+7.8% upside). Prior stop was $238.96. Stop-loss: $238.96.

What are the risks of investing in ITW?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5.

Is ITW overvalued or undervalued?

Illinois Tool Works Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.1 (forward 20.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ITW?

26 analysts cover ITW with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $275.

What does Illinois Tool Works Inc. do?The Company's ticker symbol is ITW. The Company is a global manufacturer of a diversified range of industrial products...

The Company's ticker symbol is ITW. The Company is a global manufacturer of a diversified range of industrial products and equipment with 88 divisions in 49 countries. As of December 31, 2025, the Company employed approximately 43,000 people.

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