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IBPInstalled Building Products, InHold5.4·$217.86+4.44%
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Installed Building Products, In (IBP) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $217.86, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: insulation installation (58.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

IBP installs insulation and complementary building products from ~250 branch locations across all 48 continental states. Net revenue was $3.0 billion in 2025, with insulation comprising 58% of sales, serving residential and commercial construction customers. The company buys... Read more

$217.86+1.0% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#2 of 16 Residential Construction
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.64%
IncomeYield1.59%(5y avg 1.05%)Payout35.26%sustainable
Stop $202.61Target $220.02(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$231.25+6.1%12 analysts
$220.02our TP
$217.86price
$231.25mean
$195
$285

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $217.86, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: insulation installation (58.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Installed Building Products, In

About Installed Building Products, In

Insulation installation represented 58% of IBP's $3.0 billion in net revenue for fiscal 2025, down from 60% in both 2024 and 2023 as complementary products grew their share. The remaining revenue spans shower doors and closet shelving (7%), garage doors (6%), waterproofing (5%), rain gutters (4%), and fire-stopping and fireproofing products (4%), with distribution and manufacturing adding roughly 7%. IBP operates approximately 250 branch locations across all 48 continental states.

IBP earns revenue through service-based installation for production and custom homebuilders, multi-family developers, commercial contractors, and repair-and-remodel contractors. The business bypasses the traditional distribution chain — the company purchases insulation direct from four major manufacturers (Owens Corning, Knauf Insulation, CertainTeed, and Johns Manville), which the 10-K identifies as the four primary suppliers of fiberglass insulation in the U.S. This direct procurement relationship, built over more than two decades, provides preferred supply terms and reduces dependence on distributor mark-ups that smaller installers face. Installation employees are paid per completed job, creating a highly variable expense structure. Commercial construction contributed approximately 17% of revenues in 2025 — up from 11% in 2013 — providing partial offset during residential construction slowdowns, while multi-family demand provides a further buffer against single-family declines.

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IBP's exposure to new residential construction makes financial performance sensitive to mortgage affordability cycles. Non-seasonally adjusted single-family housing starts fell 6.9% in 2025 versus 2024, and Fannie Mae's January 2026 forecast projects a further 3.7% decline to 1.31 million total starts. The company does not hedge fuel costs and holds no long-term supply agreements requiring fixed purchase volumes, so a sustained mortgage-rate driven housing downturn could weigh on both installation volumes and the company's ability to pass through material cost increases.

See also: Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

From Installed Building Products, In's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: insulation installation (58.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.3
P/E (Fwd)18.5
Mkt Cap$5.6B
EV/EBITDA12.9
Profit Mgn8.6%
ROE38.4%
Rev Growth-3.5%
Beta1.72
Dividend1.59%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.47bullish
IV60%elevated
Max Pain$440+102.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductinsulation installation58%
    10-K Item 1: 'Insulation installation comprised approximately 58%, 60% and 60% of our net revenue of $3.0 billion'
  • MEDIUMSupplierpainted aluminum single supplier
    10-K Item 1: 'CAS purchases the majority of its finished painted aluminum from a single supplier'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.1
Support Resistance
2.1
52w Position
2.6
Gap
5.0

Revenue shrinking — -3.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.6
Earnings Growth
6.0
Declining revenue: -4%
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $192.75Resistance $224.51

Price Targets

$203
$220
A.Upside+1.0%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.7% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IBP stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $217.86, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: insulation installation (58.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $220.02 (+1.0%), stop $202.61 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the IBP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $220.02 (+1.0% upside). Target $220.02 (+1.0%), stop $202.61 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $202.61.

What are the risks of investing in IBP?

Concentration risk — Product: insulation installation (58.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0.

Is IBP overvalued or undervalued?

Installed Building Products, In trades at a P/E of 22.3 (forward 18.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about IBP?

21 analysts cover IBP with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $231.

What does Installed Building Products, In do?IBP installs insulation and complementary building products from ~250 branch locations across all 48 continental...

IBP installs insulation and complementary building products from ~250 branch locations across all 48 continental states. Net revenue was $3.0 billion in 2025, with insulation comprising 58% of sales, serving residential and commercial construction customers. The company buys direct from major manufacturers including Owens Corning, Knauf, CertainTeed, and Johns Manville, bypassing distributors.

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