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IBKRInteractive Brokers Group, Inc.Sell5.2·$91.65-1.72%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The business operates a high-quality franchise with a wide economic moat and strong margins, but the stock has effectively reached its resistance target, leaving near-zero upside against meaningful downside — the risk/reward geometry currently does not support new exposure.

Thesis pillars

  • Stretched Valuation Limits Margin SafetyStable
  • Wide Moat Durable MarginsStable
  • Earnings Beat Streak Near ReportStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $91.65 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0.

Interactive Brokers Group is an automated global broker executing and clearing trades in stocks, options, futures, forex, bonds, ETFs, and cryptocurrencies on more than 170 exchanges in 40 countries for roughly 4.4 million customers. Commissions, net interest on margin loans and... Read more

$91.65+5.0% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#35 of 50 Capital Markets
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield0.38%(5y avg 0.51%)Payout13.73%sustainable
Stop $84.94Target $95.88(resistance)A.R:R -1.6:1
Analyst target$89.82-2.0%11 analysts
$95.88our TP
$91.65price
$89.82mean
$64
$114

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $91.65 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 18d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 21, 202618d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Wide economic moat
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)39.2
P/E (Fwd)31.5
Mkt Cap$154.9B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn16.1%
ROE23.6%
Rev Growth16.8%
Beta1.33
Dividend0.38%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.31bearish
IV57%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWGeographicoutside the U.S.30%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 30% of our net revenues were generated by our operating subsidiaries outside the U.S.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Analyst Target
3.0
Pe
3.1
Forward Pe
3.7
Peg Ratio
4.0
Forward P/E: 31.5xPEG: 2.52Expensive valuation

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.9
Growth Rank
4.3
Quality Rank
6.6
GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5A.R:R -1.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 18d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $83.11Resistance $97.84

Price Targets

$85
$96
A.Upside+4.6%
A.R:R-1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.4% upside)
! momentum at 4.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (18d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IBKR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $91.65 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $84.94. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the IBKR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $95.88 (+5.0% upside). Prior stop was $84.94. Stop-loss: $84.94.

What are the risks of investing in IBKR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0; Expensive valuation.

Is IBKR overvalued or undervalued?

Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 39.2 (forward 31.5). TrendMatrix value score: 2.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about IBKR?

17 analysts cover IBKR with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $90.

What does Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. do?Interactive Brokers Group is an automated global broker executing and clearing trades in stocks, options, futures,...

Interactive Brokers Group is an automated global broker executing and clearing trades in stocks, options, futures, forex, bonds, ETFs, and cryptocurrencies on more than 170 exchanges in 40 countries for roughly 4.4 million customers. Commissions, net interest on margin loans and cash balances, and securities lending fees are the primary revenue sources, serving hedge funds, ETFs, registered investment advisors, introducing brokers, and individuals. The company joined the S&P 500 in August 2025 with 3,182 employees.

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