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LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $287.36, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

LPL Financial is the nation's largest independent broker-dealer and a leading RIA custodian, supporting 32,000+ financial advisors and ~1,200 financial institutions with $2.4T in brokerage and advisory assets. Revenue comes from advisory fees, commissions, client cash program... Read more

$287.36+26.3% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#20 of 40 Capital Markets
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield0.40%(5y avg 0.47%)Payout10.80%sustainable
Stop $275.73Target $362.98(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.7:1
Analyst target$417.21+45.2%14 analysts
$362.98our TP
$287.36price
$417.21mean
$542

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $287.36, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 27, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — LPL Financial Holdings Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5
Negative news sentiment (-0.60)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.6
P/E (Fwd)10.4
Mkt Cap$23.6B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn5.1%
ROE20.5%
Rev Growth35.0%
Beta0.58
Dividend0.40%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.22bearish
IV47%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Volume
5.9
Capitulation risk (RSI 27, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Moderate
RSI
27 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $284.26Resistance $339.99

Price Targets

$276
$363
A.Upside+26.3%
A.R:R2.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LPLA stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $287.36, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 27, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $362.98 (+26.3%), stop $275.73 (−4.2%), A.R:R 2.7:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LPLA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $362.98 (+26.3% upside). Target $362.98 (+26.3%), stop $275.73 (−4.2%), A.R:R 2.7:1. Stop-loss: $275.73.

What are the risks of investing in LPLA?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Negative news sentiment (-0.60).

Is LPLA overvalued or undervalued?

LPL Financial Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.6 (forward 10.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about LPLA?

22 analysts cover LPLA with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $417.

What does LPL Financial Holdings Inc. do?LPL Financial is the nation's largest independent broker-dealer and a leading RIA custodian, supporting 32,000+...

LPL Financial is the nation's largest independent broker-dealer and a leading RIA custodian, supporting 32,000+ financial advisors and ~1,200 financial institutions with $2.4T in brokerage and advisory assets. Revenue comes from advisory fees, commissions, client cash program fees, and service fees; no single advisor or institution accounted for more than 2% of advisory and commission revenue in 2025.

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