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FUTUFutu Holdings LimitedBuy Wait7.1·$105.17+0.54%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

A high-quality brokerage with a wide economic moat, 45% net margins, 29% year-over-year revenue growth, and a forward P/E of 8.2 times sits roughly 48% below analyst consensus with a favorable risk/reward of nearly 8-to-1 — but a technical death cross and a sharp recent earnings miss mean the setup rewards patience over immediacy, requiring chart confirmation before the fundamental case can be fully acted on.

Thesis pillars

  • Deep Value Versus Growth RateStable
  • Wide Moat High Margin QualityStable
  • Technical Death Cross Hard BlockDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temporary headwind edge

Buy WaitGrowthQualityAI GATE: FLAGGED — 3 risks, 1 concernModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Earnings in 4 days (2026-08-20). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $108.70 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Earnings in 4 days (event risk); Negative momentum.

Futu Holdings Limited engages in the provision of digitalized securities brokerage and wealth management product distribution service in Hong Kong and internationally. It offers online financial services, including securities and derivative trades brokerage, margin financing and... Read more

$105.17+33.1% A.UpsideScore 7.1/10#4 of 50 Capital Markets
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.47%Payout0.00%sustainable
Entry $108.70(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $101.86Target $140.05(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.3:1
Analyst target$155.61+48.0%18 analysts
$140.05our TP
$105.17price
$155.61mean
$237

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $108.70 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Earnings in 4 days (event risk); Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Quality-value play. Wait for momentum improvement. Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 20, 20264d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong overall score: 7.1/10
High-quality business
Risks
Earnings in 4 days (event risk)
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.6
P/E (Fwd)8.6
Mkt Cap$14.8B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn45.0%
ROE27.8%
Rev Growth28.8%
Beta0.43
Dividend2.47%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.92neutral
IV74%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.2
Rsi
4.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.6
Bollinger
4.5
Support Resistance
4.7
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dA.R:R 4.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Speculative
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $97.14Resistance $112.33

Price Targets

$102
$109
$140
A.Upside+33.1%
A.R:R4.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.9%
Max %3.8%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-20 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FUTU stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $108.70 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Earnings in 4 days (event risk); Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Quality-value play. Wait for momentum improvement. Target $140.05 (+33.2%), stop $101.86 (−3.2%), A.R:R 4.3:1. Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FUTU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $140.05 (+33.1% upside). Target $140.05 (+33.2%), stop $101.86 (−3.2%), A.R:R 4.3:1. Stop-loss: $101.86.

What are the risks of investing in FUTU?

Earnings in 4 days (event risk); Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is FUTU overvalued or undervalued?

Futu Holdings Limited trades at a P/E of 11.6 (forward 8.6). TrendMatrix value score: 9.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about FUTU?

28 analysts cover FUTU with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $156.

What does Futu Holdings Limited do?Futu Holdings Limited engages in the provision of digitalized securities brokerage and wealth management product...

Futu Holdings Limited engages in the provision of digitalized securities brokerage and wealth management product distribution service in Hong Kong and internationally. It offers online financial services, including securities and derivative trades brokerage, margin financing and fund distribution services through its Futubull and Moomoo digital platforms. The company also provides financial information and online community services; online wealth management services under the Money Plus brand name through its Futubull and moomoo platforms, which provides its client access to mutual funds, private funds, bonds, structured products, and other wealth management products; market data and information services; and NiuNiu Community, an open forum for users and clients to share insights, ask questions, and exchange ideas. Futu Holdings Limited was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Admiralty, Hong Kong.

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