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HNRGHallador Energy CompanySell5.0·$16.25-3.22%
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Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.25: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 4.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 36.07; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Hallador Energy Company, through its subsidiaries, operates as an independent power producer and fuel company in the United States. It operates in two segments, Electric Operations and Coal Operations. The company owns and operates the Meron power plant, a 1,080 megawatts... Read more

$16.25+58.6% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#5 of 9 Utilities - Independent Power Producers
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield1.29%
Stop $15.19Target $25.78(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 4.2:1
Analyst target$30.33+86.7%3 analysts
$25.78our TP
$16.25price
$30.33mean
$34

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.25: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 4.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 36.07; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 10, 202637d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.7
P/E (Fwd)14.7
Mkt Cap$766M
EV/EBITDA9.5
Profit Mgn5.0%
ROE14.1%
Rev Growth-13.5%
Beta0.24
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C36.07bearish
IV102%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
1.5
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
3.1
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Operating Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
0.6
Net Margin
2.5
Current Ratio
3.2
Fcf Quality
3.5
Moat
3.6
Roa
4.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Roe
4.7
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 44% FCF/NINo competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.5
Value Rank
5.8
Quality Rank
5.8
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R 4.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 37d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $15.66Resistance $19.86

Price Targets

$15
$26
A.Upside+58.6%
A.R:R4.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)
! momentum at 2.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (37d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HNRG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.25: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 4.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 36.07; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $15.19. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HNRG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.78 (+58.6% upside). Prior stop was $15.19. Stop-loss: $15.19.

What are the risks of investing in HNRG?

Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0).

Is HNRG overvalued or undervalued?

Hallador Energy Company trades at a P/E of 30.7 (forward 14.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HNRG?

11 analysts cover HNRG with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $30.

What does Hallador Energy Company do?Hallador Energy Company, through its subsidiaries, operates as an independent power producer and fuel company in the...

Hallador Energy Company, through its subsidiaries, operates as an independent power producer and fuel company in the United States. It operates in two segments, Electric Operations and Coal Operations. The company owns and operates the Meron power plant, a 1,080 megawatts coal-fired power generating station that consists of two steam turbine generators and sells accredited capacity to utilities and other energy market participants. It also sells wholesale energy to utilities, generation and transmission cooperatives, and other energy market participants. In addition, the company operates the Oaktown mining complex, a coal mining and processing operation located in Knox and Sullivan counties, Indiana, and Crawford and Lawrence counties, Illinois. Hallador Energy Company was founded in 1949 and is based in Terre Haute, Indiana.

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