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HLIOHelios Technologies, Inc.Hold5.6·$82.39-2.35%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Helios Technologies has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging roughly 14% above consensus and converts free cash flow at 162% of net income — the quality fundamentals are real — but the stock has essentially reached its near-term resistance target and the risk/reward is unfavorable, making this a hold rather than a new-entry setup.

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Exceptional Free Cash Flow GenerationStable
  • Heavy Segment Geographic ConcentrationStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Helios Technologies, Inc. (HLIO) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $82.39, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Hydraulics segment (64.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (Electronics segment) (79.0%).

Helios Technologies designs and manufactures hydraulic motion control and fluid conveyance products (Hydraulics, 64% of 2025 sales) and electronic control systems, displays, and wire harnesses (Electronics) for construction, agriculture, industrial, marine, and health and... Read more

$82.39+13.1% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#16 of 58 Specialty Industrial Machinery
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield3.62%
IncomeYield0.58%(5y avg 0.67%)Payout14.84%sustainable
Stop $77.58Target $93.15(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$87.83+6.6%6 analysts
$93.15our TP
$82.39price
$87.83mean
$80
$100

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $82.39, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Hydraulics segment (64.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (Electronics segment) (79.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202633d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Hydraulics segment (64.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (Electronics segment) (79.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)45.3
P/E (Fwd)24.5
Mkt Cap$2.7B
EV/EBITDA18.3
Profit Mgn7.0%
ROE6.7%
Rev Growth16.8%
Beta1.26
Dividend0.58%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.29bullish
IV62%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductHydraulics segment64%
    10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, 64% of Helios' sales were derived from the Hydraulics segment.'
  • HIGHGeographicAmericas (Electronics segment)79%
    10-K Item 1: 'our 2025 Electronics segment sales were 79% in the Americas'
  • HIGHCustomerOEM sales (Electronics segment)78%
    10-K Item 1: 'OEM sales constituted 78% of total Electronics segment sales in 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
3.3
Value Rank
4.1
Growth Rank
7.0

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $79.98Resistance $95.05

Price Targets

$78
$93
A.Upside+13.1%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.3% upside)
! momentum at 3.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HLIO stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $82.39, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Hydraulics segment (64.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (Electronics segment) (79.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $93.15 (+13.1%), stop $77.58 (−6.2%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HLIO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $93.15 (+13.1% upside). Target $93.15 (+13.1%), stop $77.58 (−6.2%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Stop-loss: $77.58.

What are the risks of investing in HLIO?

Concentration risk — Product: Hydraulics segment (64.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (Electronics segment) (79.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is HLIO overvalued or undervalued?

Helios Technologies, Inc. trades at a P/E of 45.3 (forward 24.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HLIO?

12 analysts cover HLIO with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $88.

What does Helios Technologies, Inc. do?Helios Technologies designs and manufactures hydraulic motion control and fluid conveyance products (Hydraulics, 64% of...

Helios Technologies designs and manufactures hydraulic motion control and fluid conveyance products (Hydraulics, 64% of 2025 sales) and electronic control systems, displays, and wire harnesses (Electronics) for construction, agriculture, industrial, marine, and health and wellness end markets globally. Revenue flows through value-added distributors and direct OEM sales; OEM sales constituted 78% of Electronics segment sales in 2025. No single customer represented 10% or more of consolidated 2025 net sales.

Related stocks: AMSC (American Superconductor Corpora) · CXT (Crane NXT, Co.) · BW (Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, I) · EPAC (Enerpac Tool Group Corp.) · CSW (CSW Industrials, Inc.)
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