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HEHawaiian Electric Industries, ISell5.7·$11.73-0.85%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Hawaiian Electric Industries trades with an unfavorable 0.41-to-1 reward-to-risk and below-minimum quality metrics, compounded by meaningful geographic and regulatory concentration in a single island state and a recent significant earnings miss — the combination of these factors points to a setup that warrants caution.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below Minimum FloorDeteriorating
  • Unfavorable Price Risk RewardImproving
  • Geographic Regulatory ConcentrationDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Hawaiian Electric Industries, I (HE) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.73: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality.

Hawaiian Electric Industries is a holding company whose regulated utility subsidiaries — Hawaiian Electric, Hawaii Electric Light, and Maui Electric — serve approximately 95% of Hawaii's population across five island grids. Utility electric sales revenues totaled $3.02 billion... Read more

$11.73-13.6% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#8 of 42 Utilities - Regulated Electric
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield16.02%
Stop $11.05Target $13.42(resistance)A.R:R -2.4:1
Analyst target$11.92+1.6%3 analysts
$13.42our TP
$11.73price
$11.92mean
$13

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.73: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15

Recent Developments — Hawaiian Electric Industries, I

Generated 2026-08-16T00:32:05Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Nov 13, 202690d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaii
Concentration risk — Regulatory: PUC
Target reached (-13.6% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.1
P/E (Fwd)10.9
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA8.9
Profit Mgn6.8%
ROE13.4%
Rev Growth25.9%
Beta0.51
DividendNone
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV81%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicHawaii
    10-K Item 1A: 'The business of the Utilities is concentrated on the individual islands they serve in the State of Hawaii.'
  • HIGHregulatoryPUC
    10-K Item 1: 'HEI is subject to an agreement entered into with the PUC (the PUC Agreement) which, among other things, requires PUC approval of any change in control of HEI.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-10Item 5.02HIGH
    EVP & CFO Scott T. DeGhetto's term as principal financial officer ended April 1, 2026. No successor named. Entered 1-year consulting agreement via Emberstone, LLC at $200,000/month plus $1,350,000 special projects fee.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/2M

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Roa
1.1
Operating Margin
1.8
Piotroski F
3.3
Net Margin
3.4
Current Ratio
3.9
Roe
4.5
Moat
5.4
Fcf Quality
9.8
Excellent cash conversion: 145% FCF/NINo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
1.7
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.8
Rsi
3.0
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 18, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R -2.4=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 90d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
18 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.29Resistance $13.69

Price Targets

$11
$13
A.Upside-13.6%
A.R:R-2.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.6% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-13 (90d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.73: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $11.05. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.42 (-13.6% upside). Prior stop was $11.05. Stop-loss: $11.05.

What are the risks of investing in HE?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaii; Concentration risk — Regulatory: PUC; Target reached (-13.6% upside).

Is HE overvalued or undervalued?

Hawaiian Electric Industries, I trades at a P/E of 9.1 (forward 10.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HE?

10 analysts cover HE with a consensus score of 1.9/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Hawaiian Electric Industries, I do?Hawaiian Electric Industries is a holding company whose regulated utility subsidiaries — Hawaiian Electric, Hawaii...

Hawaiian Electric Industries is a holding company whose regulated utility subsidiaries — Hawaiian Electric, Hawaii Electric Light, and Maui Electric — serve approximately 95% of Hawaii's population across five island grids. Utility electric sales revenues totaled $3.02 billion in 2025, earned through PUC-authorized mechanisms including sales decoupling and annual revenue adjustments.

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