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HEHawaiian Electric Industries, ISell4.5·$13.39-1.72%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Hawaiian Electric Industries trades with an unfavorable 0.41-to-1 reward-to-risk and below-minimum quality metrics, compounded by meaningful geographic and regulatory concentration in a single island state and a recent significant earnings miss — the combination of these factors points to a setup that warrants caution.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below Minimum FloorStable
  • Unfavorable Price Risk RewardStable
  • Geographic Regulatory ConcentrationStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Hawaiian Electric Industries, I (HE) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.39: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Hawaiian Electric Industries is a holding company whose regulated utility subsidiaries — Hawaiian Electric, Hawaii Electric Light, and Maui Electric — serve approximately 95% of Hawaii's population across five island grids. Utility electric sales revenues totaled $3.02 billion... Read more

$13.39+0.2% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#34 of 42 Utilities - Regulated Electric
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.31%
Stop $12.76Target $13.45(resistance)A.R:R -2.9:1
Analyst target$13.42+0.2%3 analysts
$13.45our TP
$13.39price
$13.42mean
$13
$14

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.39: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06

Recent Developments — Hawaiian Electric Industries, I

Generated 2026-07-06T18:32:06Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 13, 202638d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaii
Concentration risk — Regulatory: PUC
Target reached (-15.0% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.4
P/E (Fwd)12.1
Mkt Cap$2.4B
EV/EBITDA9.2
Profit Mgn4.1%
ROE8.0%
Rev Growth0.3%
Beta0.51
DividendNone
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV40%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicHawaii
    10-K Item 1A: 'The business of the Utilities is concentrated on the individual islands they serve in the State of Hawaii.'
  • HIGHregulatoryPUC
    10-K Item 1: 'HEI is subject to an agreement entered into with the PUC (the PUC Agreement) which, among other things, requires PUC approval of any change in control of HEI.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-10Item 5.02HIGH
    EVP & CFO Scott T. DeGhetto's term as principal financial officer ended April 1, 2026. No successor named. Entered 1-year consulting agreement via Emberstone, LLC at $200,000/month plus $1,350,000 special projects fee.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Roa
1.1
Net Margin
2.1
Roe
2.7
Operating Margin
2.9
Moat
3.8
Current Ratio
5.0
Fcf Quality
6.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality warning: 80% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.7
Growth Rank
0.8
Value Rank
7.5

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Ma Position
5.2
Macd
7.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R -2.9=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 38d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.72Resistance $13.72

Price Targets

$13
$13
A.Upside+0.4%
A.R:R-2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-15.0% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (38d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.39: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $12.76. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.45 (+0.2% upside). Prior stop was $12.76. Stop-loss: $12.76.

What are the risks of investing in HE?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaii; Concentration risk — Regulatory: PUC; Target reached (-15.0% upside).

Is HE overvalued or undervalued?

Hawaiian Electric Industries, I trades at a P/E of 18.4 (forward 12.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HE?

10 analysts cover HE with a consensus score of 1.9/5. Average price target: $13.

What does Hawaiian Electric Industries, I do?Hawaiian Electric Industries is a holding company whose regulated utility subsidiaries — Hawaiian Electric, Hawaii...

Hawaiian Electric Industries is a holding company whose regulated utility subsidiaries — Hawaiian Electric, Hawaii Electric Light, and Maui Electric — serve approximately 95% of Hawaii's population across five island grids. Utility electric sales revenues totaled $3.02 billion in 2025, earned through PUC-authorized mechanisms including sales decoupling and annual revenue adjustments.

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