MGE Energy Inc. (MGEE) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
Sell if holding. At $79.31, A.R:R is negative (-3.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Wisconsin; Concentration risk — Commodity: coal.
MGE Energy is a Wisconsin-based regulated electric and gas utility (Madison Gas and Electric) serving ~170,000 electric customers in 264 sq mi Dane County including Madison. Electric operations comprise ~72% of regulated revenues. It also holds minority investments in American... Read more
Sell if holding. At $79.31, A.R:R is negative (-3.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Wisconsin; Concentration risk — Commodity: coal. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 43. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicWisconsin10-K Item 1A: 'Our business activities, including those of our subsidiaries, are concentrated in the State of Wisconsin.'
- HIGHCommoditycoal10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our electric generating capacity is dependent on coal.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-21Item 5.02LOWJared Bushek promoted from VP Chief Financial Officer to Executive VP Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of MGE Energy and MGE, effective May 1, 2026. One-time retention RSU grant of 25,000 shares cliff-vesting in 5 years. No departure.SEC filing →
- 2026-01-29Item 1.02MEDIUMMGE satisfied and discharged its 1946 Indenture of Mortgage and Deed of Trust by redeeming all $1.2M of outstanding 7.70% First Mortgage Bonds due 2028 on January 27, 2026. Indenture lien on utility plant assets released; no new bonds will be issued under it.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $79.31, A.R:R is negative (-3.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Wisconsin; Concentration risk — Commodity: coal. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 43. Prior stop was $76.01. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $80.35 (+1.3% upside). Prior stop was $76.01. Stop-loss: $76.01.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Wisconsin; Concentration risk — Commodity: coal; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
MGE Energy Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.2 (forward 18.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
7 analysts cover MGEE with a consensus score of 2.1/5. Average price target: $79.
What does MGE Energy Inc. do?MGE Energy is a Wisconsin-based regulated electric and gas utility (Madison Gas and Electric) serving ~170,000 electric...
MGE Energy is a Wisconsin-based regulated electric and gas utility (Madison Gas and Electric) serving ~170,000 electric customers in 264 sq mi Dane County including Madison. Electric operations comprise ~72% of regulated revenues. It also holds minority investments in American Transmission Company and two coal-fired generating units.