MGE Energy Inc. (MGEE) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the MGEE stock price target?

Take-profit $80.35 (+7.1% upside). Target $80.35 (+1.7%), stop $71.00 (−11.3%), A.R:R -2.7:1.

Q: Is MGEE overvalued or undervalued?

MGE Energy Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.2 (forward 17.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Overall verdict: Hold.

Q: What do analysts say about MGEE?

7 analysts cover MGEE with a consensus score of 2.1/5. Average price target: $76.

Q: What does MGE Energy Inc. do?

MGE Energy is a Wisconsin-based regulated utility holding company operating electric and natural gas distribution through Madison Gas and Electric and a natural gas pipeline, primarily serving Dane County (Madison area). Electric operations represent ~72% of MGE's regulated revenues, serving approximately 170,000 electric customers with ~91% concentrated in the cities of Fitchburg, Madison, Middleton, and Monona.

Falling Knife setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 1 days ago (May 19, 2026, 7:46 AM ET)

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric

$79.01+7.1% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#9 of 40 Utilities - Regulated Electric

QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-6.39%

IncomeYield2.50%(5y avg 2.11%)Payout48.08%sustainable

Stop $71.00Target $80.35(resistance)A.R:R -2.7:1

Analyst target$75.50-4.4%2 analysts

$80.35our TP

$79.01price

$75.50mean

$74

$80

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $79.01, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Madison area (Fitchburg, Madison, Middleton, and Monona, Wisconsin) (91.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — MGE Energy Inc.

Latest news

MGE Energy Offers 3.3M Shares Of Common Stock — benzinga May 7, 2026 neutral
Reported Earlier, MGE Energy Prices Public Offering Of 3,300,331 Common Shares At $75.75 Per Share With Forward Sale Agr — benzinga May 7, 2026 negative
MGE Energy Commences Underwritten Public Offering of $250M of Its Common Shares — benzinga May 6, 2026 negative
MGE Energy Q1 EPS $1.32 Beats $1.13 Estimate, Sales $242.703M Beat $45.412M Estimate — benzinga May 5, 2026 positive
Morgan Stanley Maintains Underweight on MGE Energy, Lowers Price Target to $78 — benzinga Apr 21, 2026 negative

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards

Sector modifier (Utilities): +1.0

Risks

Concentration risk — Geographic: Madison area (Fitchburg, Madison, Middleton, and Monona, Wisconsin) (91.0%)

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.2

P/E (Fwd)17.7

Mkt Cap$2.8B

EV/EBITDA12.8

Profit Mgn19.0%

ROE10.9%

Rev Growth10.8%

Beta0.75

Dividend2.50%

Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral

IV74%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHGeographicMadison area (Fitchburg, Madison, Middleton, and Monona, Wisconsin)91%
10-K Item 1: 'approximately 91% located in the cities of Fitchburg, Madison, Middleton, and Monona, Wisconsin'
MEDIUMregulatoryPSCW / FERC
10-K Item 1: 'As a public utility, MGE is subject to regulation by the PSCW and the FERC'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-04-21Item 5.02LOW
Jared Bushek promoted from VP – CFO to EVP – CFO of MGE Energy and MGE, effective May 1, 2026. Retention award granted. No change in CFO identity.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value6.615%0.99

Quality5.515%0.82

Growth5.215%0.78

Momentum3.410%0.34

Sentiment5.010%0.50

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank5.710%0.57

Technical Setup7.25%0.36

Risk Profile6.65%0.33

Catalyst5.55%0.28

Overall (Σ contributions)5.47

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd

0.0

Ma Position

1.0

Volume

2.5

Rsi

3.5

Obv

10.0

Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend

GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R -2.7=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

33 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $73.00Resistance $81.99

Price Targets

$71

$80

A.Upside+1.7%

A.R:R-2.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.4% upside)

! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is MGEE stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $79.01, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Madison area (Fitchburg, Madison, Middleton, and Monona, Wisconsin) (91.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $80.35 (+1.7%), stop $71.00 (−11.3%), A.R:R -2.7:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MGEE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $80.35 (+7.1% upside). Target $80.35 (+1.7%), stop $71.00 (−11.3%), A.R:R -2.7:1. Stop-loss: $71.00.

What are the risks of investing in MGEE?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Madison area (Fitchburg, Madison, Middleton, and Monona, Wisconsin) (91.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5).

Is MGEE overvalued or undervalued?

MGE Energy Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.2 (forward 17.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MGEE?

7 analysts cover MGEE with a consensus score of 2.1/5. Average price target: $76.

What does MGE Energy Inc. do?MGE Energy is a Wisconsin-based regulated utility holding company operating electric and natural gas distribution...

MGE Energy is a Wisconsin-based regulated utility holding company operating electric and natural gas distribution through Madison Gas and Electric and a natural gas pipeline, primarily serving Dane County (Madison area). Electric operations represent ~72% of MGE's regulated revenues, serving approximately 170,000 electric customers with ~91% concentrated in the cities of Fitchburg, Madison, Middleton, and Monona.