Value
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.2 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 4.5 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.9x
- ▸PEG: 2.00
HE · Why this verdict
Why Hawaiian Electric Industries, I (HE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Hawaiian Electric Industries trades with an unfavorable 0.41-to-1 reward-to-risk and below-minimum quality metrics, compounded by meaningful geographic and regulatory concentration in a single island state and a recent significant earnings miss — the combination of these factors points to a setup that warrants caution.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business's quality metrics fall below the minimum investment floor at 3.4 against a 4.0 threshold, driven by weak return metrics and an absence of identifiable competitive advantages, limiting the margin of safety at current prices. Warnings | Operating margin expands above 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, lifting the quality profile back above the minimum threshold. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA Piotroski F-score of 7 out of 9 indicates financial statement health across multiple accounting dimensions, suggesting the quality weakness may be concentrated in return metrics rather than reflecting broader deterioration in financial condition. | ||
The stock's analyst consensus target sits materially below the current price, producing a negative implied return on a 12-month fundamental basis and an unfavorable 0.41-to-1 reward-to-risk at current levels. Price targets | Analyst consensus targets are raised above $16.00 as the fundamental outlook improves, creating more than 15% of upside headroom from current levels. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe 200-day moving average continues to rise at approximately +2.9% per month — a pullback in an uptrend rather than a confirmed reversal — suggesting the longer-term price trajectory may eventually re-engage upward momentum. | ||
With operations exclusively in Hawaii, the business faces concentrated geographic and regulatory exposure — a single state's economic conditions and a single regulatory commission determine virtually all of the company's revenue and allowed returns. Bear case | Revenue exposure to a single regulatory jurisdiction falls below 90% of total revenue for 2 consecutive fiscal years as the company diversifies its earnings base. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRegulated utilities typically benefit from cost-of-service frameworks that provide revenue certainty; a single-jurisdiction operator may actually face simpler regulatory relationships than multi-state peers. | ||
Short interest of 13% of the float combined with a put/call ratio of 2.25 indicates a substantial level of market skepticism, with professional capital actively positioned for further price weakness. Key risks | Short interest falls below 8% and the put/call ratio normalizes below 1.0, reflecting improved market confidence in the fundamental outlook. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterElevated short interest can serve as a technical support mechanism — if positive news surfaces, short covering may accelerate an upside move beyond what underlying fundamentals would otherwise support. | ||
The business's quality metrics fall below the minimum investment floor at 3.4 against a 4.0 threshold, driven by weak return metrics and an absence of identifiable competitive advantages, limiting the margin of safety at current prices.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Operating margin expands above 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, lifting the quality profile back above the minimum threshold.
CounterA Piotroski F-score of 7 out of 9 indicates financial statement health across multiple accounting dimensions, suggesting the quality weakness may be concentrated in return metrics rather than reflecting broader deterioration in financial condition.
The stock's analyst consensus target sits materially below the current price, producing a negative implied return on a 12-month fundamental basis and an unfavorable 0.41-to-1 reward-to-risk at current levels.
↑ImprovingPrice targets
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus targets are raised above $16.00 as the fundamental outlook improves, creating more than 15% of upside headroom from current levels.
CounterThe 200-day moving average continues to rise at approximately +2.9% per month — a pullback in an uptrend rather than a confirmed reversal — suggesting the longer-term price trajectory may eventually re-engage upward momentum.
With operations exclusively in Hawaii, the business faces concentrated geographic and regulatory exposure — a single state's economic conditions and a single regulatory commission determine virtually all of the company's revenue and allowed returns.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue exposure to a single regulatory jurisdiction falls below 90% of total revenue for 2 consecutive fiscal years as the company diversifies its earnings base.
CounterRegulated utilities typically benefit from cost-of-service frameworks that provide revenue certainty; a single-jurisdiction operator may actually face simpler regulatory relationships than multi-state peers.
Short interest of 13% of the float combined with a put/call ratio of 2.25 indicates a substantial level of market skepticism, with professional capital actively positioned for further price weakness.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 8% and the put/call ratio normalizes below 1.0, reflecting improved market confidence in the fundamental outlook.
CounterElevated short interest can serve as a technical support mechanism — if positive news surfaces, short covering may accelerate an upside move beyond what underlying fundamentals would otherwise support.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.8 |
| Net margin | 3.4 |
| Current ratio | 3.9 |
| FCF quality | 9.8 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 145% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
Growth
9.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 26% YoY
Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 1.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 2.8 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 18, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.1 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.2 |
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.7 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.3 |
| quality rank | 4.4 |
| growth rank | 9.3 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.9 |
| support resistance | 8.2 |
| 52w position | 3.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.8 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 5.3 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 9.9 |
| debt equity | 3.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸High IV: 89%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:90d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-2.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.37
Upside
-13.6%
Downside
5.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.9<4.5 outcome against Growth at 9.0 and asymmetric R:R of -2.37.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.0, Technical at 6.9, and Value at 6.8; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.3, Catalyst at 3.6, and Quality at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.37 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Unfavorable Price Risk Reward
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $16.00, creating more than 15% upside from the current price.
- P2Quality Below Minimum Floor
Trip ifOperating margin exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive reporting quarters.
- P3Geographic Regulatory Concentration
Trip ifRevenue from operations outside Hawaii exceeds 10% of total revenue for 2 consecutive fiscal years.
- P4Elevated Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest falls below 8% of float for 2 consecutive months.