Hayward Holdings is in a confirmed technical downtrend — below its 200-day moving average with a death cross and falling volume accumulation — while free cash flow stands at only 20% of net income and 85% geographic concentration in North America leaves limited diversification against domestic demand softness; with only 3.4% upside to the analyst target and unfavorable risk-reward, the setup does not favor new exposure, though improving MACD and RSI at 61 suggest early technical stabilization may be developing.
Thesis pillars
- Geographic Concentration North America→Stable
- Confirmed Technical Downtrend→Stable
- Fcf Quality Red Flag→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Electrical Equipment & Parts
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $16.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: NAM segment (85.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Hayward Holdings designs and manufactures pool equipment—including pumps, filters, heaters, robotic cleaners, and IoT automation—sold globally with approximately 85% of net sales in North America. Pool Corporation represents approximately 33% of net sales; aftermarket repair and... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $16.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: NAM segment (85.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 78. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 24d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Hayward Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Hayward Holdings, Inc. 2026 Q1 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:HAYW) 2026-04-29 - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha neutral
- NEWS Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW) Surpasses Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Hayward (NYSE:HAYW) Reports Upbeat Q1 CY2026 - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS Hayward Holdings (HAYW) upgraded to strong buy: What does it mean for the stock? - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS Earnings Flash (HAYW) Hayward Holdings, Inc. Posts Q1 Adjusted EPS $0.13 per Share, vs. FactSet Est of $0.11 - marketscr — marketscreener.com positive
Generated 2026-07-06T05:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerPool Corporation33%10-K Item 1A: 'our largest customer, Pool Corporation, which represented approximately 33% of our net sales in Fiscal Year 2025'
- HIGHGeographicNAM segment85%10-K Item 1: 'NAM and E&RW accounted for approximately 85% and 15% of total net sales, respectively'
- LOWCustomeranother customer12%10-K Item 1A: 'Another customer accounted for 12% of our net sales in Fiscal Year 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $16.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: NAM segment (85.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 78. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $17.06 (+0.5%), stop $15.89 (−6.8%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $17.06 (+0.5% upside). Target $17.06 (+0.5%), stop $15.89 (−6.8%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Stop-loss: $15.89.
Concentration risk — Geographic: NAM segment (85.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.3% away).
Hayward Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.2 (forward 17.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Hold.
15 analysts cover HAYW with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $17.
What does Hayward Holdings, Inc. do?Hayward Holdings designs and manufactures pool equipment—including pumps, filters, heaters, robotic cleaners, and IoT...
Hayward Holdings designs and manufactures pool equipment—including pumps, filters, heaters, robotic cleaners, and IoT automation—sold globally with approximately 85% of net sales in North America. Pool Corporation represents approximately 33% of net sales; aftermarket repair and replacement products account for roughly 85% of total sales.