Value
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.6 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.9 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.65
HAYW · Why this verdict
Why Hayward Holdings (HAYW) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Hayward Holdings is in a confirmed technical downtrend — below its 200-day moving average with a death cross and falling volume accumulation — while free cash flow stands at only 20% of net income and 85% geographic concentration in North America leaves limited diversification against domestic demand softness; with only 3.4% upside to the analyst target and unfavorable risk-reward, the setup does not favor new exposure, though improving MACD and RSI at 61 suggest early technical stabilization may be developing.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With 85% of revenue tied to the North American segment, the business is highly exposed to domestic demand cycles with limited international revenue to buffer regional downturns — a concentration that amplifies both the upside in a strong domestic environment and the downside in a softer one. Bear case | North American segment revenue share declines below 70% as international operations grow to provide meaningful diversification. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterDeep North American market presence can represent a durable competitive position in a large addressable market; geographic concentration is only a structural disadvantage if domestic demand deteriorates, which remains a conditional rather than certain outcome. | ||
A death cross pattern combined with a 200-day moving average slope of -1.3% over 30 days and falling volume accumulation (declining OBV) describes a confirmed downtrend where sellers are in control — a condition that acts as a hard block on adding exposure at the current level. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average, OBV turns positive, and the MA slope turns flat or positive over the next 12 weeks. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRSI at 61 and an improving MACD suggest internal momentum is strengthening even as the primary trend remains negative — early signs that a recovery may be building from the current range despite the adverse longer-term trend signal. | ||
Free cash flow stands at only 20% of net income — a significant gap flagged as a red flag for earnings quality; when cash generated by the business is substantially below what is reported in income, the income statement may be overstating the sustainable level of profitability. Quality breakdown | FCF/NI ratio improves above 60% over the next 2 fiscal years as working capital or capital investment normalizes. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 signals broad financial health across multiple dimensions, indicating the low FCF/NI ratio may reflect timing effects rather than a structural earnings quality deficiency. | ||
Despite the primary downtrend, the setup has been characterized as a potential recovery — with MACD improving and RSI at 61 — suggesting the preconditions for a technical inflection may be forming even though the primary trend has not yet confirmed a reversal. V9 | Price breaks above $15.50 and sustains above it for 3 consecutive weeks while OBV turns positive. | →Stable |
| CounterA death cross is a hard technical block that historically overrides early-stage MACD improvement; a failed recovery attempt following a death cross can accelerate selling as technical participants exit on the second signal failure. | ||
With 85% of revenue tied to the North American segment, the business is highly exposed to domestic demand cycles with limited international revenue to buffer regional downturns — a concentration that amplifies both the upside in a strong domestic environment and the downside in a softer one.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- North American segment revenue share declines below 70% as international operations grow to provide meaningful diversification.
CounterDeep North American market presence can represent a durable competitive position in a large addressable market; geographic concentration is only a structural disadvantage if domestic demand deteriorates, which remains a conditional rather than certain outcome.
A death cross pattern combined with a 200-day moving average slope of -1.3% over 30 days and falling volume accumulation (declining OBV) describes a confirmed downtrend where sellers are in control — a condition that acts as a hard block on adding exposure at the current level.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average, OBV turns positive, and the MA slope turns flat or positive over the next 12 weeks.
CounterRSI at 61 and an improving MACD suggest internal momentum is strengthening even as the primary trend remains negative — early signs that a recovery may be building from the current range despite the adverse longer-term trend signal.
Free cash flow stands at only 20% of net income — a significant gap flagged as a red flag for earnings quality; when cash generated by the business is substantially below what is reported in income, the income statement may be overstating the sustainable level of profitability.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/NI ratio improves above 60% over the next 2 fiscal years as working capital or capital investment normalizes.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 signals broad financial health across multiple dimensions, indicating the low FCF/NI ratio may reflect timing effects rather than a structural earnings quality deficiency.
Despite the primary downtrend, the setup has been characterized as a potential recovery — with MACD improving and RSI at 61 — suggesting the preconditions for a technical inflection may be forming even though the primary trend has not yet confirmed a reversal.
→StableV9
- Expectation
- Price breaks above $15.50 and sustains above it for 3 consecutive weeks while OBV turns positive.
CounterA death cross is a hard technical block that historically overrides early-stage MACD improvement; a failed recovery attempt following a death cross can accelerate selling as technical participants exit on the second signal failure.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.5 |
| ROA | 3.3 |
| Gross margin | 5.6 |
| Op margin | 6.7 |
| Net margin | 7.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| FCF quality | 1.6 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 20% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.5 |
| Volume | 1.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 23, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 7.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 3.2 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $4,384,892 (0.140% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.4 |
| quality rank | 6.1 |
| growth rank | 3.9 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.7 |
| support resistance | 8.5 |
| 52w position | 6.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 7.1 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.7 |
| beta | 6.7 |
| debt equity | 7.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 9.00
- ▸High IV: 70%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings in 3 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCKPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.55
Upside
+3.8%
Downside
6.9%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 23, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.1B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Growth at 7.7 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.7, Technical at 7.5, and Catalyst at 7.0; the weakest are Momentum at 3.1, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.8, and Peer rank at 5.6. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.55 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Confirmed Technical Downtrend
Trip ifPrice rises above $16.00 and holds above it for 3 consecutive weeks while OBV turns positive.
- P2Fcf Quality Red Flag
Trip ifFCF/NI ratio rises above 60% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Geographic Concentration North America
Trip ifNorth American segment revenue share falls below 70% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Early Recovery Signals Macd Rsi
Trip ifPrice falls below $13.00 on rising volume for 2 consecutive weeks, confirming the recovery attempt has failed.