Value
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.5 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.9 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.67
HAYW · Why this verdict
Why Hayward Holdings (HAYW) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.5 |
| ROA | 3.3 |
| Gross margin | 5.6 |
| Op margin | 6.7 |
| Net margin | 7.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| FCF quality | 1.6 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 20% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.6 |
| MACD | 8.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.1 |
| quality rank | 5.5 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.9 |
| support resistance | 1.7 |
| 52w position | 6.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 7.2 |
| volatility | 5.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 7.2 |
- ▸High IV: 248%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:42d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.18
Upside
+2.2%
Downside
12.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.2B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Catalyst at 7.8; weakest: Technical at 3.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.8, Growth at 7.7, and Value at 6.1; the weakest are Technical at 3.5, Momentum at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.18 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.