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AYIAcuity Inc.Buy Wait5.7·$350.25-2.45%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

A perfect four-quarter earnings beat record and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 signal a high-quality business entering its next report in 9 days, but a technical death cross and just 1.4% headroom to the analyst consensus target leave the near-term risk/reward tilted against new entry.

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Piotroski Nine Quality FranchiseStable
  • Death Cross Technical BlockStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Acuity Inc. (AYI) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Industrials · Electrical Equipment & Parts

Wait for pullback to $322.33. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $350.25. Engine's entry $322.33 (200-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Mexico (55.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source supplier situations.

Acuity Inc. designs and markets lighting, building management systems, and audio-video platforms through two segments — Acuity Brands Lighting (ABL) and Acuity Intelligent Spaces (AIS) — sold primarily in North America via electrical distributors, system integrators, and direct... Read more

$350.25+15.1% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#4 of 24 Electrical Equipment & Parts
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.35%
IncomeYield0.21%(5y avg 0.26%)Payout4.91%sustainable
Entry $322.33(200-day MA)Stop $299.77Target $371.08(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$398.29+13.7%7 analysts
$371.08our TP
$350.25price
$398.29mean
$465

Wait for pullback to $322.33. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $350.25. Engine's entry $322.33 (200-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Mexico (55.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source supplier situations. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 86d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Sep 30, 202686d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Mexico (55.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source supplier situations
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.9
P/E (Fwd)16.6
Mkt Cap$10.7B
EV/EBITDA14.8
Profit Mgn10.3%
ROE17.4%
Rev Growth1.6%
Beta1.27
Dividend0.21%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.02bearish
IV58%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicMexico55%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 55% of our finished products are manufactured in Mexico'
  • HIGHSuppliersole-source supplier situations
    10-K Item 1A: 'which on a limited basis, results in sole-source supplier situations'
  • LOWGeographicnon-U.S. net sales14%
    10-K Item 1: 'net sales initiated outside of the U.S. represented approximately 14% of total net sales'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 86d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Moderate
RSI
69 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $279.73Resistance $378.65

Price Targets

$300
$322
$371
A.Upside+5.9%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.2% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-30 (86d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AYI stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $322.33. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $350.25. Engine's entry $322.33 (200-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Mexico (55.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source supplier situations. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $371.08 (+5.9%), stop $299.77 (−16.8%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AYI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $371.08 (+15.1% upside). Target $371.08 (+5.9%), stop $299.77 (−16.8%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Stop-loss: $299.77.

What are the risks of investing in AYI?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Mexico (55.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source supplier situations; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is AYI overvalued or undervalued?

Acuity Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.9 (forward 16.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about AYI?

13 analysts cover AYI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $398.

What does Acuity Inc. do?Acuity Inc. designs and markets lighting, building management systems, and audio-video platforms through two segments —...

Acuity Inc. designs and markets lighting, building management systems, and audio-video platforms through two segments — Acuity Brands Lighting (ABL) and Acuity Intelligent Spaces (AIS) — sold primarily in North America via electrical distributors, system integrators, and direct accounts. The company employs approximately 13,800 people and manufactures about 55% of finished goods in Mexico, investing $140.2 million in R&D in fiscal 2025.

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