Hayward Holdings is in a confirmed technical downtrend — below its 200-day moving average with a death cross and falling volume accumulation — while free cash flow stands at only 20% of net income and 85% geographic concentration in North America leaves limited diversification against domestic demand softness; with only 3.4% upside to the analyst target and unfavorable risk-reward, the setup does not favor new exposure, though improving MACD and RSI at 61 suggest early technical stabilization may be developing.
Thesis pillars
- Geographic Concentration North America↓Deteriorating
- Confirmed Technical Downtrend↓Deteriorating
- Fcf Quality Red Flag↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026· older than 90 days
Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Electrical Equipment & Parts
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.98 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: NAM segment (85.0%).
Hayward Holdings designs and manufactures pool equipment—including pumps, filters, heaters, robotic cleaners, and IoT automation—sold globally with approximately 85% of net sales in North America. Pool Corporation represents approximately 33% of net sales; aftermarket repair and... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.98 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: NAM segment (85.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 93. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 111d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — Hayward Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Hayward Holdings (HAYW) Nears Q3 Earnings, Is A 21% Undervaluation Warranted? - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW) Was Down in Q3 2026, but This Fund Remains Confident in Its Investment Thesis - Yahoo Fina — Yahoo Finance Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS What to expect from Hayward’s (HAYW) Q3 earnings - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS What to expect from Hayward’s (HAYW) Q3 earnings - TradingView — TradingView Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS What to expect from Hayward’s (HAYW) Q3 earnings - The Chronicle-Journal — The Chronicle-Journal Oct 27, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:39:30Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerPool Corporation33%10-K Item 1A: 'our largest customer, Pool Corporation, which represented approximately 33% of our net sales in Fiscal Year 2025'
- HIGHGeographicNAM segment85%10-K Item 1: 'NAM and E&RW accounted for approximately 85% and 15% of total net sales, respectively'
- LOWCustomeranother customer12%10-K Item 1A: 'Another customer accounted for 12% of our net sales in Fiscal Year 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.98 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: NAM segment (85.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 93. Prior stop was $15.80. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $15.22 reached (−10.3% from $16.98); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $15.80. Stop-loss: $15.80.
Concentration risk — Geographic: NAM segment (85.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.5% away).
Hayward Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.1 (forward 17.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts rate HAYW, with a consensus score of 3.9/5. 7 analysts publish price targets averaging $18.
What does Hayward Holdings, Inc. do?Hayward Holdings designs and manufactures pool equipment—including pumps, filters, heaters, robotic cleaners, and IoT...
Hayward Holdings designs and manufactures pool equipment—including pumps, filters, heaters, robotic cleaners, and IoT automation—sold globally with approximately 85% of net sales in North America. Pool Corporation represents approximately 33% of net sales; aftermarket repair and replacement products account for roughly 85% of total sales.