Hayward Holdings is in a confirmed technical downtrend — below its 200-day moving average with a death cross and falling volume accumulation — while free cash flow stands at only 20% of net income and 85% geographic concentration in North America leaves limited diversification against domestic demand softness; with only 3.4% upside to the analyst target and unfavorable risk-reward, the setup does not favor new exposure, though improving MACD and RSI at 61 suggest early technical stabilization may be developing.
Thesis pillars
- Geographic Concentration North America↑Improving
- Confirmed Technical Downtrend↑Improving
- Fcf Quality Red Flag→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Industrials · Electrical Equipment & Parts
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $11.74 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: NAM segment (85.0%); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Hayward Holdings designs and manufactures pool equipment—including pumps, filters, heaters, robotic cleaners, and IoT automation—sold globally with approximately 85% of net sales in North America. Pool Corporation represents approximately 33% of net sales; aftermarket repair and... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $11.74 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: NAM segment (85.0%); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-16Recent Developments — Hayward Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership Purchases 605,743 Shares of Hayward Holdings, Inc. $HAYW - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Hayward Holdings, Inc. 2026 Q1 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:HAYW) 2026-04-29 - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha neutral
- NEWS Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW) Surpasses Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Hayward (NYSE:HAYW) Reports Upbeat Q1 CY2026 - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS Hayward Holdings (HAYW) upgraded to strong buy: What does it mean for the stock? - MSN — MSN positive
Generated 2026-10-16T11:37:13Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerPool Corporation33%10-K Item 1A: 'our largest customer, Pool Corporation, which represented approximately 33% of our net sales in Fiscal Year 2025'
- HIGHGeographicNAM segment85%10-K Item 1: 'NAM and E&RW accounted for approximately 85% and 15% of total net sales, respectively'
- LOWCustomeranother customer12%10-K Item 1A: 'Another customer accounted for 12% of our net sales in Fiscal Year 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $11.74 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: NAM segment (85.0%); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $11.08. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $14.36 (+22.3% upside). Prior stop was $11.08. Stop-loss: $11.08.
Concentration risk — Geographic: NAM segment (85.0%); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Weak growth.
Hayward Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.1 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover HAYW with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $17.
What does Hayward Holdings, Inc. do?Hayward Holdings designs and manufactures pool equipment—including pumps, filters, heaters, robotic cleaners, and IoT...
Hayward Holdings designs and manufactures pool equipment—including pumps, filters, heaters, robotic cleaners, and IoT automation—sold globally with approximately 85% of net sales in North America. Pool Corporation represents approximately 33% of net sales; aftermarket repair and replacement products account for roughly 85% of total sales.