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Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Electrical Equipment & Parts

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $13.08 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Pool Corporation (33.0%); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Hayward designs and manufactures pool equipment (variable-speed pumps, filters, cleaners, heaters, LED lights, IoT-connected controls) for residential and commercial pools globally. NAM segment (85% of net sales) and E&RW segment (15%) sell primarily through distributors;... Read more

$13.08+14.5% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#1 of 18 Electrical Equipment & Parts
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.08%
Stop $12.61Target $14.98(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst target$17.21+31.6%7 analysts
$14.98our TP
$13.08price
$17.21mean
$20

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $13.08 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Pool Corporation (33.0%); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 23, MACD bearish. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Hayward Holdings, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Pool Corporation (33.0%)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.6
P/E (Fwd)14.2
Mkt Cap$3.0B
EV/EBITDA12.4
Profit Mgn14.0%
ROE10.5%
Rev Growth11.5%
Beta1.14
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.07bullish
IV62%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerPool Corporation33%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our largest customer, Pool Corporation, which represented approximately 33% of our net sales in Fiscal Year 2025 and approximately 46% of our accounts receivable as of December 31, 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.2
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
4.7
Capitulation risk (RSI 23, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5A.R:R 2.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
23 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $13.00Resistance $16.28

Price Targets

$13
$15
A.Upside+14.5%
A.R:R2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HAYW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $13.08 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Pool Corporation (33.0%); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 23, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $12.61. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HAYW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.98 (+14.5% upside). Prior stop was $12.61. Stop-loss: $12.61.

What are the risks of investing in HAYW?

Concentration risk — Customer: Pool Corporation (33.0%); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum.

Is HAYW overvalued or undervalued?

Hayward Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.6 (forward 14.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HAYW?

15 analysts cover HAYW with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $17.

What does Hayward Holdings, Inc. do?Hayward designs and manufactures pool equipment (variable-speed pumps, filters, cleaners, heaters, LED lights,...

Hayward designs and manufactures pool equipment (variable-speed pumps, filters, cleaners, heaters, LED lights, IoT-connected controls) for residential and commercial pools globally. NAM segment (85% of net sales) and E&RW segment (15%) sell primarily through distributors; aftermarket replacement/upgrade represents approximately 85% of net sales. Pool Corporation represents approximately 33% of net sales.

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