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Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Electrical Equipment & Parts

Wait for pullback to $13.39. At $14.96 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $13.39 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: Pool Corporation (33.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Hayward Holdings designs and manufactures pool equipment globally through North America (85% of net sales) and Europe & Rest of World (15%) segments. Aftermarket repairs and replacements represent approximately 85% of net sales. Pool Corporation is the largest customer at 33% of... Read more

$14.96+12.8% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#2 of 18 Electrical Equipment & Parts
Entry $13.39(support + ATR)Stop $12.76Target $15.10(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.1:1Setup A.R:R 2.7:1
Analyst target$17.36+16.0%7 analysts
$15.10our TP
$14.96price
$17.36mean
$20

Wait for pullback to $13.39. At $14.96 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $13.39 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: Pool Corporation (33.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Pool Corporation (33.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.4
P/E (Fwd)15.8
Mkt Cap$3.2B
EV/EBITDA13.1
Profit Mgn14.0%
ROE10.5%
Rev Growth11.5%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.80bearish
IV78%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerPool Corporation33%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our largest customer, Pool Corporation, which represented approximately 33% of our net sales in Fiscal Year 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $13.15Resistance $16.28

Price Targets

$13
$13
$15
A.Upside+0.9%
A.R:R0.1:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.0% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Reward/Risk 0.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HAYW stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $13.39. At $14.96 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $13.39 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: Pool Corporation (33.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $15.10 (+0.9%), stop $12.76 (−17.2%), Setup A.R:R 2.7:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HAYW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.10 (+12.8% upside). Target $15.10 (+0.9%), stop $12.76 (−17.2%), Setup A.R:R 2.7:1. Stop-loss: $12.76.

What are the risks of investing in HAYW?

Concentration risk — Customer: Pool Corporation (33.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is HAYW overvalued or undervalued?

Hayward Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.4 (forward 15.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about HAYW?

15 analysts cover HAYW with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $17.

What does Hayward Holdings, Inc. do?Hayward Holdings designs and manufactures pool equipment globally through North America (85% of net sales) and Europe &...

Hayward Holdings designs and manufactures pool equipment globally through North America (85% of net sales) and Europe & Rest of World (15%) segments. Aftermarket repairs and replacements represent approximately 85% of net sales. Pool Corporation is the largest customer at 33% of FY2025 net sales.

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