Hayward Holdings is in a confirmed technical downtrend — below its 200-day moving average with a death cross and falling volume accumulation — while free cash flow stands at only 20% of net income and 85% geographic concentration in North America leaves limited diversification against domestic demand softness; with only 3.4% upside to the analyst target and unfavorable risk-reward, the setup does not favor new exposure, though improving MACD and RSI at 61 suggest early technical stabilization may be developing.
Thesis pillars
- Geographic Concentration North America↓Deteriorating
- Confirmed Technical Downtrend↑Improving
- Fcf Quality Red Flag→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Industrials · Electrical Equipment & Parts
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $13.92 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: NAM segment (85.0%); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Hayward Holdings designs and manufactures pool equipment—including pumps, filters, heaters, robotic cleaners, and IoT automation—sold globally with approximately 85% of net sales in North America. Pool Corporation represents approximately 33% of net sales; aftermarket repair and... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $13.92 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: NAM segment (85.0%); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-06Recent Developments — Hayward Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership Purchases 605,743 Shares of Hayward Holdings, Inc. $HAYW - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Hayward Holdings, Inc. 2026 Q1 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:HAYW) 2026-04-29 - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha neutral
- NEWS Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW) Surpasses Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Hayward (NYSE:HAYW) Reports Upbeat Q1 CY2026 - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS Hayward Holdings (HAYW) upgraded to strong buy: What does it mean for the stock? - MSN — MSN positive
Generated 2026-09-06T08:07:02Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerPool Corporation33%10-K Item 1A: 'our largest customer, Pool Corporation, which represented approximately 33% of our net sales in Fiscal Year 2025'
- HIGHGeographicNAM segment85%10-K Item 1: 'NAM and E&RW accounted for approximately 85% and 15% of total net sales, respectively'
- LOWCustomeranother customer12%10-K Item 1A: 'Another customer accounted for 12% of our net sales in Fiscal Year 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $13.92 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: NAM segment (85.0%); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $13.22. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $15.60 (+12.1% upside). Prior stop was $13.22. Stop-loss: $13.22.
Concentration risk — Geographic: NAM segment (85.0%); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Weak growth.
Hayward Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.1 (forward 14.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover HAYW with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $18.
What does Hayward Holdings, Inc. do?Hayward Holdings designs and manufactures pool equipment—including pumps, filters, heaters, robotic cleaners, and IoT...
Hayward Holdings designs and manufactures pool equipment—including pumps, filters, heaters, robotic cleaners, and IoT automation—sold globally with approximately 85% of net sales in North America. Pool Corporation represents approximately 33% of net sales; aftermarket repair and replacement products account for roughly 85% of total sales.