Guidewire has compiled four quarters of substantial earnings outperformance and converts cash at nearly twice its reported net income, supporting a high-quality growth profile; however, a confirmed price downtrend with a hard technical block keeps the setup on hold until the trend heals, at which point analysts project 50% upside from current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Consistent Earnings Outperformance↑Improving
- Superior Free Cash Conversion→Stable
- Confirmed Downtrend Blocks Entry↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) Stock Analysis
Technology · Software - Application
Sell if holding. At $163.18, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative news sentiment (-0.60).
Guidewire Software provides a cloud-based core systems platform—InsuranceSuite, InsuranceNow, and analytics tools—for property and casualty insurers worldwide, hosted on AWS. Subscription revenue is priced on Direct Written Premium managed, with five-year initial contract terms;... Read more
Sell if holding. At $163.18, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative news sentiment (-0.60). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-04Recent Developments — Guidewire Software, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Comerica Bank Acquires 26,912 Shares of Guidewire Software, Inc. $GWRE - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS 3 Reasons We’re Fans of Guidewire Software (GWRE) - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Guidewire Software (GWRE) Pulls Back 2.98%: Navigating Key Support Levels - AAII Bearish - thelegaladvocate.com — thelegaladvocate.com negative
- NEWS Is Guidewire Software, Inc. (NYSE:GWRE) Potentially Undervalued? - Moomoo — Moomoo positive
- NEWS Guidewire Software (NYSE:GWRE) Stock Rating Lowered by Zacks Research - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
Generated 2026-09-04T19:02:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerten largest customers20%10-K Item 1A: 'Our ten largest customers accounted for 20% and 22% of our revenue in fiscal years 2025 and 2024, respectively'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $163.18, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative news sentiment (-0.60). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $152.34. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $183.45 (+13.6% upside). Prior stop was $152.34. Stop-loss: $152.34.
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative news sentiment (-0.60); Expensive valuation.
Guidewire Software, Inc. trades at a P/E of 104.0 (forward 49.5). TrendMatrix value score: 3.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts cover GWRE with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $211.
What does Guidewire Software, Inc. do?Guidewire Software provides a cloud-based core systems platform—InsuranceSuite, InsuranceNow, and analytics tools—for...
Guidewire Software provides a cloud-based core systems platform—InsuranceSuite, InsuranceNow, and analytics tools—for property and casualty insurers worldwide, hosted on AWS. Subscription revenue is priced on Direct Written Premium managed, with five-year initial contract terms; the top ten customers represented 20% of fiscal 2025 revenue. The company had 3,772 employees at July 31, 2025, with 2,058 located internationally.