Guidewire has compiled four quarters of substantial earnings outperformance and converts cash at nearly twice its reported net income, supporting a high-quality growth profile; however, a confirmed price downtrend with a hard technical block keeps the setup on hold until the trend heals, at which point analysts project 50% upside from current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Consistent Earnings Outperformance→Stable
- Superior Free Cash Conversion→Stable
- Confirmed Downtrend Blocks Entry↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Technology · Software - Application
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $138.23 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Guidewire Software provides a cloud-based core systems platform—InsuranceSuite, InsuranceNow, and analytics tools—for property and casualty insurers worldwide, hosted on AWS. Subscription revenue is priced on Direct Written Premium managed, with five-year initial contract terms;... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $138.23 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 40d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Guidewire Software, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Comerica Bank Acquires 26,912 Shares of Guidewire Software, Inc. $GWRE - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS 3 Reasons We’re Fans of Guidewire Software (GWRE) - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Guidewire Software (GWRE) Pulls Back 2.98%: Navigating Key Support Levels - AAII Bearish - thelegaladvocate.com — thelegaladvocate.com negative
- NEWS Is Guidewire Software, Inc. (NYSE:GWRE) Potentially Undervalued? - Moomoo — Moomoo positive
- NEWS Guidewire Software (NYSE:GWRE) Stock Rating Lowered by Zacks Research - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
Generated 2026-07-26T08:08:26Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerten largest customers20%10-K Item 1A: 'Our ten largest customers accounted for 20% and 22% of our revenue in fiscal years 2025 and 2024, respectively'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $138.23 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $128.55. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $172.59 (+24.9% upside). Prior stop was $128.55. Stop-loss: $128.55.
Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Guidewire Software, Inc. trades at a P/E of 70.5 (forward 33.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover GWRE with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $198.
What does Guidewire Software, Inc. do?Guidewire Software provides a cloud-based core systems platform—InsuranceSuite, InsuranceNow, and analytics tools—for...
Guidewire Software provides a cloud-based core systems platform—InsuranceSuite, InsuranceNow, and analytics tools—for property and casualty insurers worldwide, hosted on AWS. Subscription revenue is priced on Direct Written Premium managed, with five-year initial contract terms; the top ten customers represented 20% of fiscal 2025 revenue. The company had 3,772 employees at July 31, 2025, with 2,058 located internationally.