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Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $133.60, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Guidewire provides cloud-based P&C insurance core systems (InsuranceSuite for large carriers, InsuranceNow for mid-market) on its proprietary Guidewire Cloud Platform hosted on AWS, serving P&C insurers globally. Revenue comes from multi-year subscription agreements priced... Read more

$133.60+47.7% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#24 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield1.73%
Stop $124.71Target $198.09(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.1:1
Analyst target$227.69+70.4%13 analysts
$198.09our TP
$133.60price
$227.69mean
$300

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $133.60, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Guidewire Software, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Strong growth profile
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)63.4
P/E (Fwd)33.1
Mkt Cap$11.9B
EV/EBITDA112.4
Profit Mgn14.1%
ROE13.6%
Rev Growth24.0%
Beta0.91
DividendNone
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.72bearish
IV78%elevated
Max Pain$80-40.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerten largest customers20%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our ten largest customers accounted for 20% and 22% of our revenue in fiscal years 2025 and 2024, respectively'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.3
Quality Rank
6.5
Growth Rank
7.3
GatesMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 13d<=14d (soft)Momentum 5.1>=4.5A.R:R 4.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $122.50Resistance $147.46

Price Targets

$125
$198
A.Upside+48.3%
A.R:R4.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+1: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-02 (13d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GWRE stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $133.60, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $198.09 (+48.3%), stop $124.71 (−7.1%), A.R:R 4.1:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GWRE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $198.09 (+47.7% upside). Target $198.09 (+48.3%), stop $124.71 (−7.1%), A.R:R 4.1:1. Stop-loss: $124.71.

What are the risks of investing in GWRE?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is GWRE overvalued or undervalued?

Guidewire Software, Inc. trades at a P/E of 63.4 (forward 33.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about GWRE?

21 analysts cover GWRE with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $228.

What does Guidewire Software, Inc. do?Guidewire provides cloud-based P&C insurance core systems (InsuranceSuite for large carriers, InsuranceNow for...

Guidewire provides cloud-based P&C insurance core systems (InsuranceSuite for large carriers, InsuranceNow for mid-market) on its proprietary Guidewire Cloud Platform hosted on AWS, serving P&C insurers globally. Revenue comes from multi-year subscription agreements priced primarily on Direct Written Premium managed; 3,772 employees as of July 31, 2025 with fiscal year ending July 31.

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