Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the GWRE stock price target?

Take-profit $202.78 (+46.5% upside). Target $202.78 (+46.0%), stop $128.74 (−7.9%), A.R:R 3.1:1.

Recovery setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Technology · Software - Application

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $138.91, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Guidewire is the cloud platform for P&C insurers, offering InsuranceSuite (policy, claims, billing), digital engagement tools, and analytics. It prices cloud subscriptions based on Direct Written Premium managed on its platform, with initial 5-year terms. Its top 10 customers... Read more

$138.91+46.5% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#29 of 96 Software - Application

Stop $128.74Target $202.78(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.1:1

Analyst target$233.08+67.8%13 analysts

$202.78our TP

$138.91price

$233.08mean

$300

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $138.91, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)

Strong growth profile

Analyst upside: 46%

Risks

Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)63.0

P/E (Fwd)32.9

Mkt Cap$11.8B

EV/EBITDA111.7

Profit Mgn14.1%

ROE13.6%

Rev Growth24.0%

Beta1.05

DividendNone

Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C2.13bearish

IV69%elevated

Max Pain$100-28.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

LOWCustomerten largest customers20%
10-K Item 1A: 'Our ten largest customers accounted for 20% and 22% of our revenue in fiscal years 2025 and 2024, respectively.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value5.315%0.79

Quality6.515%0.97

Growth8.515%1.27

Momentum5.410%0.54

Sentiment7.410%0.74

Insider Activity3.810%0.38

Peer Rank3.810%0.38

Technical Setup3.75%0.19

Risk Profile4.35%0.21

Catalyst7.55%0.38

Overall (Σ contributions)5.86

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position

0.2

Support Resistance

3.9

Bollinger

4.6

Gap

6.0

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank

1.4

Quality Rank

6.4

Growth Rank

7.3

GatesMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.4>=4.5A.R:R 3.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate

RSI

68 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $115.57Resistance $152.81

Price Targets

$129

$203

A.Upside+46.0%

A.R:R3.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Analyst Consensus

Analysts22

Consensus4.1/5

Avg Target$233

Earnings

4/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-06-02 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is GWRE stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $138.91, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $202.78 (+46.0%), stop $128.74 (−7.9%), A.R:R 3.1:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GWRE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $202.78 (+46.5% upside). Target $202.78 (+46.0%), stop $128.74 (−7.9%), A.R:R 3.1:1. Stop-loss: $128.74.

What are the risks of investing in GWRE?

Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is GWRE overvalued or undervalued?

Guidewire Software, Inc. trades at a P/E of 63.0 (forward 32.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about GWRE?

22 analysts cover GWRE with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $233.

What does Guidewire Software, Inc. do?Guidewire is the cloud platform for P&C insurers, offering InsuranceSuite (policy, claims, billing), digital engagement...