Guidewire has compiled four quarters of substantial earnings outperformance and converts cash at nearly twice its reported net income, supporting a high-quality growth profile; however, a confirmed price downtrend with a hard technical block keeps the setup on hold until the trend heals, at which point analysts project 50% upside from current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Consistent Earnings Outperformance→Stable
- Superior Free Cash Conversion↓Deteriorating
- Confirmed Downtrend Blocks Entry↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) Stock Analysis
Technology · Software - Application
Sell if holding. At $162.75, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative news sentiment (-0.60).
Guidewire Software provides a cloud-based core systems platform—InsuranceSuite, InsuranceNow, and analytics tools—for property and casualty insurers worldwide, hosted on AWS. Subscription revenue is priced on Direct Written Premium managed, with five-year initial contract terms;... Read more
Sell if holding. At $162.75, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative news sentiment (-0.60). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-05Recent Developments — Guidewire Software, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Comerica Bank Acquires 26,912 Shares of Guidewire Software, Inc. $GWRE - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS 3 Reasons We’re Fans of Guidewire Software (GWRE) - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Guidewire Software (GWRE) Pulls Back 2.98%: Navigating Key Support Levels - AAII Bearish - thelegaladvocate.com — thelegaladvocate.com negative
- NEWS Is Guidewire Software, Inc. (NYSE:GWRE) Potentially Undervalued? - Moomoo — Moomoo positive
- NEWS Guidewire Software (NYSE:GWRE) Stock Rating Lowered by Zacks Research - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
Generated 2026-09-05T16:11:56Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerten largest customers20%10-K Item 1A: 'Our ten largest customers accounted for 20% and 22% of our revenue in fiscal years 2025 and 2024, respectively'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $162.75, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative news sentiment (-0.60). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $152.34. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $182.82 (+12.6% upside). Prior stop was $152.34. Stop-loss: $152.34.
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative news sentiment (-0.60); Weak overall score: 4.9/10.
Guidewire Software, Inc. trades at a P/E of 109.0 (forward 30.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts cover GWRE with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $210.
What does Guidewire Software, Inc. do?Guidewire Software provides a cloud-based core systems platform—InsuranceSuite, InsuranceNow, and analytics tools—for...
Guidewire Software provides a cloud-based core systems platform—InsuranceSuite, InsuranceNow, and analytics tools—for property and casualty insurers worldwide, hosted on AWS. Subscription revenue is priced on Direct Written Premium managed, with five-year initial contract terms; the top ten customers represented 20% of fiscal 2025 revenue. The company had 3,772 employees at July 31, 2025, with 2,058 located internationally.