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GFSGlobalFoundries Inc.Sell5.4·$44.73+1.73%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

GlobalFoundries has demonstrated a perfect four-quarter beat streak with rising estimates and exceptional cash conversion, but an expensive valuation with the stock having already reached a prior target level and 18% short interest limit the near-term asymmetry.

Thesis pillars

  • Valuation Limits Near Term UpsideDeteriorating
  • Perfect Beat Streak Rising EstimatesStable
  • Exceptional Cash ConversionStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

GlobalFoundries Inc. (GFS) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $44.73: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc., a semiconductor foundry, provides range of mainstream wafer fabrication services and technologies in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It offers semiconductor devices, including microprocessors, mobile application... Read more

$44.73+53.6% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#43 of 54 Semiconductors
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.10%
IncomeYield1.09%Payout9.38%sustainable
Stop $41.42Target $68.40(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 6.4:1
Analyst target$76.00+69.9%22 analysts
$68.40our TP
$44.73price
$76.00mean
$140

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $44.73: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 67d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 10, 202667d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 54%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9)
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)34.3
P/E (Fwd)17.0
Mkt Cap$24.4B
EV/EBITDA12.0
Profit Mgn10.3%
ROE6.2%
Rev Growth5.8%
Beta1.80
Dividend1.09%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C4.70bearish
IV53%elevated
Max Pain$30-32.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.9
GatesMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5A.R:R 6.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 67d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
14 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $42.70Resistance $55.58

Price Targets

$41
$68
A.Upside+53.6%
A.R:R6.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts26
Consensus3.8/5
Avg Target$76

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-10 (67d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GFS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $44.73: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $41.42. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GFS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $68.40 (+53.6% upside). Prior stop was $41.42. Stop-loss: $41.42.

What are the risks of investing in GFS?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak growth.

Is GFS overvalued or undervalued?

GlobalFoundries Inc. trades at a P/E of 34.3 (forward 17.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GFS?

26 analysts cover GFS with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $76.

What does GlobalFoundries Inc. do?GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc., a semiconductor foundry, provides range of mainstream wafer fabrication services and technologies...

GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc., a semiconductor foundry, provides range of mainstream wafer fabrication services and technologies in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It offers semiconductor devices, including microprocessors, mobile application processors, baseband processors, network processors, radio frequency modems, microcontrollers, and power management units. The company also provides quantum technology solutions. GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. has a strategic partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy's Genesis Mission to accelerate scientific discovery through artificial intelligence and advanced computing. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Malta, New York.

Related stocks: SIMO (Silicon Motion Technology Corpo) · CRUS (Cirrus Logic, Inc.) · CRDO (Credo Technology Group Holding ) · ADI (Analog Devices, Inc.) · NXPI (NXP Semiconductors N.V.)
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