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GFSGlobalFoundries Inc.Sell5.0·$42.89
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

GlobalFoundries has demonstrated a perfect four-quarter beat streak with rising estimates and exceptional cash conversion, but an expensive valuation with the stock having already reached a prior target level and 18% short interest limit the near-term asymmetry.

Thesis pillars

  • Valuation Limits Near Term Upside↓Deteriorating
  • Perfect Beat Streak Rising Estimates→Stable
  • Exceptional Cash Conversion→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026· older than 90 days

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

GlobalFoundries Inc. (GFS) Stock Analysis

SellShortHigh Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Earnings today — results expected after close (2026-11-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $42.89 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc., a semiconductor foundry, provides range of mainstream wafer fabrication services and technologies in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It offers semiconductor devices, including microprocessors, mobile application... Read more

$42.89+55.1% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#44 of 52 Semiconductors
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.17%
IncomeYield1.12%Payout9.38%sustainable
Stop $39.89Analyst target $66.52(−10% haircut)A.R:R 4.5:1
Analyst consensus$73.91+72.3%22 analysts with price targets
$66.52Analyst target
$42.89price
$73.91mean
$140

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $42.89 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Oct 31, 2026

Recent Developments — GlobalFoundries Inc.

Latest item Oct 31, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T12:04:35Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 2026Earnings today — results expected after close· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 55%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9)
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Weak overall score: 5.0/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)33.5
P/E (Fwd)16.3
Mkt Cap$23.9B
EV/EBITDA11.6
Profit Mgn10.3%
ROE6.2%
Rev Growth5.8%
Beta1.85
Dividend1.12%
Analysts with ratings27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV79%elevated
Max Pain$25-41.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.3
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.9
GatesMomentum 1.8<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dA.R:R 4.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
33 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $40.80Resistance $51.45

Price Targets

$40
$67
A.Upside+55.1%
A.R:R4.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Earnings today - binary event risk
! momentum at 1.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (Earnings today — results expected after close)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GFS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $42.89 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $39.89. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the GFS stock price target?

Analyst target: $66.52 (+55.1% upside). Prior stop was $39.89. Stop-loss: $39.89.

What are the risks of investing in GFS?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak overall score: 5.0/10.

Is GFS overvalued or undervalued?

GlobalFoundries Inc. trades at a P/E of 33.5 (forward 16.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GFS?

27 analysts rate GFS, with a consensus score of 3.8/5. 22 analysts publish price targets averaging $74.

What does GlobalFoundries Inc. do?GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc., a semiconductor foundry, provides range of mainstream wafer fabrication services and technologies...

GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc., a semiconductor foundry, provides range of mainstream wafer fabrication services and technologies in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It offers semiconductor devices, including microprocessors, mobile application processors, baseband processors, network processors, radio frequency modems, microcontrollers, and power management units. The company also provides quantum technology solutions. GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. has a strategic partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy's Genesis Mission to accelerate scientific discovery through artificial intelligence and advanced computing; and Xanadu Quantum Technologies Limited to accelerate utility-scale quantum manufacturing. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Malta, New York.

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