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FCNCAFirst Citizens BancShares, Inc.Hold5.9·$2200.01+1.05%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

First Citizens BancShares has sustained a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with an average positive surprise of approximately 13%, supported by an attractive forward multiple and a technical breakout structure, yet the stock has largely closed the gap to its near-term resistance target, leaving minimal reward for new exposure at current levels.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Forward ValuationStable
  • Perfect Earnings Beat StreakDeteriorating
  • Technical Breakout StructureImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA) Stock Analysis

HoldValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $2200.01, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.0% away).

First Citizens BancShares held $229.70 billion in total consolidated assets at December 31, 2025, operating through First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company across General Bank, Commercial Bank, and Rail segments in more than 500 domestic branches. The company acquired Silicon Valley... Read more

$2200.01-7.5% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#125 of 223 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield0.39%(5y avg 0.31%)Payout4.42%sustainable
Stop $2106.61Target $2248.22(resistance)A.R:R -1.5:1
Analyst target$2342.67+6.5%12 analysts
$2248.22our TP
$2200.01price
$2342.67mean
$2100
$2525

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $2200.01, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.0% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 22, 202648d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.0% away)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.7
P/E (Fwd)11.2
Mkt Cap$24.9B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn25.2%
ROE10.7%
Rev Growth8.5%
Beta0.60
Dividend0.39%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.53bullish
IV31%normal
Max Pain$2550+15.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -1.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.5>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 48d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $2132.54Resistance $2294.10

Price Targets

$2107
$2248
A.Upside-7.5%
A.R:R-1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.5% upside)
! News modifier suppressed: positive news (+2) cannot lift HOLD to buy-class with analyst upside -7.5% (lift floor +1.5%)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-22 (48d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FCNCA stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $2200.01, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.0% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $2248.22 (+2.2%), stop $2106.61 (−4.4%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FCNCA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $2248.22 (-7.5% upside). Target $2248.22 (+2.2%), stop $2106.61 (−4.4%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Stop-loss: $2106.61.

What are the risks of investing in FCNCA?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.0% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).

Is FCNCA overvalued or undervalued?

First Citizens BancShares, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.7 (forward 11.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about FCNCA?

21 analysts cover FCNCA with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $2343.

What does First Citizens BancShares, Inc. do?First Citizens BancShares held $229.70 billion in total consolidated assets at December 31, 2025, operating through...

First Citizens BancShares held $229.70 billion in total consolidated assets at December 31, 2025, operating through First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company across General Bank, Commercial Bank, and Rail segments in more than 500 domestic branches. The company acquired Silicon Valley Bridge Bank in March 2023, maintaining the SVB brand for innovation-market clients, and has a pending acquisition of 138 BMO branches expected to close in H2 2026.

Related stocks: FBK (FB Financial Corporation) · ONB (Old National Bancorp) · MFG (Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. Sp) · AUB (Atlantic Union Bankshares Corpo) · BSBR (Banco Santander Brasil SA)
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