Fastenal is a genuinely high-quality compounding franchise — wide economic moat, 34% return on equity, best-in-class margins of approximately 15%, and a perfect financial health score — but at 33.6 times forward earnings with a PEG of 3.32, the stock is priced for excellence at a level where the analyst consensus target has already been reached; uninspiring recent earnings delivery and elevated options defensiveness compound the case for patience over new exposure.
Thesis pillars
- Premium Quality Franchise→Stable
- Rich Valuation Limits Upside↓Deteriorating
- Soft Earnings Delivery↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Fastenal Company (FAST) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Industrials · Industrial Distribution
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $47.01, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation.
Fastenal sells fasteners and industrial/construction supplies through 1,595 branch locations in 25 countries, supported by 15 North American distribution centers, with 24,489 employees at year-end 2025. Revenue is business-to-business, with manufacturing customers generating... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $47.01, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: conservative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Fastenal Company
Latest news
- NEWS Fastenal Co. stock outperforms competitors despite losses on the day - MarketWatch — MarketWatch positive
- NEWS BIRD takes flight: Allbirds pivot to AI company Smartbird is a huge change—that's good for the stock - Fast Company — Fast Company positive
- NEWS Here is Why Hedge Funds Fancy Fastenal Co. (FAST) - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Fastenal Co. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch — MarketWatch negative
- NEWS Bank of New York Mellon Corp Sells 3,426,006 Shares of Fastenal Company $FAST - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-07-26T09:17:40Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWProductfastener product line31%10-K Item 1: 'Our fastener product line, which is primarily sold under the Fastenal product name, represented 30.5% of our consolidated sales in 2025.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-29Item 5.02LOWAt 2026 Annual Meeting on April 23, 2026, shareholders approved the Fastenal Company Employee Restricted Stock Unit Plan and the Non-Employee Director Stock and Restricted Stock Unit Plan. Routine compensatory plan approval; no officer departure.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $47.01, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $48.03 (+2.2%), stop $44.04 (−6.7%), A.R:R -1.8:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $48.03 (-11.5% upside). Target $48.03 (+2.2%), stop $44.04 (−6.7%), A.R:R -1.8:1. Stop-loss: $44.04.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation.
Fastenal Company trades at a P/E of 39.5 (forward 33.7). TrendMatrix value score: 3.2/10. Verdict: Hold.
24 analysts cover FAST with a consensus score of 2.9/5. Average price target: $48.
What does Fastenal Company do?Fastenal sells fasteners and industrial/construction supplies through 1,595 branch locations in 25 countries, supported...
Fastenal sells fasteners and industrial/construction supplies through 1,595 branch locations in 25 countries, supported by 15 North American distribution centers, with 24,489 employees at year-end 2025. Revenue is business-to-business, with manufacturing customers generating $6.2 billion of 2025 sales and non-manufacturing customers generating $2.0 billion. The Fastenal Managed Inventory platform (FASTVend, FASTBin, FASTStock) accounted for 44.7% of sales in 2025.