Fastenal is a genuinely high-quality compounding franchise — wide economic moat, 34% return on equity, best-in-class margins of approximately 15%, and a perfect financial health score — but at 33.6 times forward earnings with a PEG of 3.32, the stock is priced for excellence at a level where the analyst consensus target has already been reached; uninspiring recent earnings delivery and elevated options defensiveness compound the case for patience over new exposure.
Thesis pillars
- Premium Quality Franchise→Stable
- Rich Valuation Limits Upside→Stable
- Soft Earnings Delivery→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Fastenal Company (FAST) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Industrials · Industrial Distribution
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $48.60 — A.R:R is negative (-2.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.0% away).
Fastenal sells fasteners and industrial/construction supplies through 1,595 branch locations in 25 countries, supported by 15 North American distribution centers, with 24,489 employees at year-end 2025. Revenue is business-to-business, with manufacturing customers generating... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $48.60 — A.R:R is negative (-2.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.0% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost earnings 0.60, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: conservative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Fastenal Company
Latest news
- NEWS Fastenal Co. stock outperforms competitors despite losses on the day - MarketWatch — MarketWatch positive
- NEWS BIRD takes flight: Allbirds pivot to AI company Smartbird is a huge change—that's good for the stock - Fast Company — Fast Company positive
- NEWS Here is Why Hedge Funds Fancy Fastenal Co. (FAST) - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Fastenal Co. stock outperforms competitors on strong trading day - MarketWatch — MarketWatch positive
- NEWS Bank of New York Mellon Corp Sells 3,426,006 Shares of Fastenal Company $FAST - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-07-06T05:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWProductfastener product line31%10-K Item 1: 'Our fastener product line, which is primarily sold under the Fastenal product name, represented 30.5% of our consolidated sales in 2025.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-29Item 5.02LOWAt 2026 Annual Meeting on April 23, 2026, shareholders approved the Fastenal Company Employee Restricted Stock Unit Plan and the Non-Employee Director Stock and Restricted Stock Unit Plan. Routine compensatory plan approval; no officer departure.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $48.60 — A.R:R is negative (-2.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.0% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $46.44. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $47.78 (-1.7% upside). Prior stop was $46.44. Stop-loss: $46.44.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.0% away); Expensive valuation.
Fastenal Company trades at a P/E of 43.0 (forward 35.4). TrendMatrix value score: 3.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover FAST with a consensus score of 2.9/5. Average price target: $47.
What does Fastenal Company do?Fastenal sells fasteners and industrial/construction supplies through 1,595 branch locations in 25 countries, supported...
Fastenal sells fasteners and industrial/construction supplies through 1,595 branch locations in 25 countries, supported by 15 North American distribution centers, with 24,489 employees at year-end 2025. Revenue is business-to-business, with manufacturing customers generating $6.2 billion of 2025 sales and non-manufacturing customers generating $2.0 billion. The Fastenal Managed Inventory platform (FASTVend, FASTBin, FASTStock) accounted for 44.7% of sales in 2025.