Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (FERG) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Industrial Distribution
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $263.60 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%).
Ferguson is the largest value-added distributor of plumbing, HVAC, PVF, and water/wastewater products in North America, operating 1,746 branches with ~35,000 associates. The US segment generated 95% of net sales in fiscal 2025; no single customer exceeded 1% of sales and no... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $263.60 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicUnited States95%10-K Item 1A: 'The United States segment contributed 95% of net sales in each of fiscal years 2025, 2024 and 2023'
- LOWCustomerno single customer >1%1.0%10-K Item 1A: 'No single customer accounted for more than 1% of our net sales in fiscal 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $263.60 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $251.93. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $263.57 (+0.1% upside). Prior stop was $251.93. Stop-loss: $251.93.
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.1% away).
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.2 (forward 20.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
31 analysts cover FERG with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $278.
What does Ferguson Enterprises Inc. do?Ferguson is the largest value-added distributor of plumbing, HVAC, PVF, and water/wastewater products in North America,...
Ferguson is the largest value-added distributor of plumbing, HVAC, PVF, and water/wastewater products in North America, operating 1,746 branches with ~35,000 associates. The US segment generated 95% of net sales in fiscal 2025; no single customer exceeded 1% of sales and no supplier exceeded 5% of inventory purchases.