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Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (FERG) Stock Analysis

SellHigh Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $223.16 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6).

Ferguson is the largest distributor of plumbing, HVAC, pipes/valves/fittings, and water/wastewater products in North America, operating 1,746 branches with ~35,000 associates. The US segment contributes 95% of net sales across all 50 states; the Canada segment contributes 5%... Read more

$223.16+14.7% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#11 of 17 Industrial Distribution
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield1.61%(5y avg 1.85%)Payout33.27%sustainable
Stop $210.00Target $256.42(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.4:1
Analyst target$284.91+27.7%22 analysts
$256.42our TP
$223.16price
$284.91mean
$325

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $223.16 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Ferguson Enterprises Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.8
P/E (Fwd)17.7
Mkt Cap$43.0B
EV/EBITDA15.9
Profit Mgn6.3%
ROE
Rev Growth3.6%
Beta1.20
Dividend1.61%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C2.91bearish
IV42%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicUnited States95%
    10-K Item 1: 'The United States segment contributed 95% of net sales in each of fiscal years 2025, 2024 and 2023'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 11, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.2<4.5A.R:R 2.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
11 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $214.44Resistance $267.64

Price Targets

$210
$256
A.Upside+14.9%
A.R:R2.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FERG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $223.16 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $210.00. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the FERG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $256.42 (+14.7% upside). Prior stop was $210.00. Stop-loss: $210.00.

What are the risks of investing in FERG?

Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is FERG overvalued or undervalued?

Ferguson Enterprises Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.8 (forward 17.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FERG?

31 analysts cover FERG with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $285.

What does Ferguson Enterprises Inc. do?Ferguson is the largest distributor of plumbing, HVAC, pipes/valves/fittings, and water/wastewater products in North...

Ferguson is the largest distributor of plumbing, HVAC, pipes/valves/fittings, and water/wastewater products in North America, operating 1,746 branches with ~35,000 associates. The US segment contributes 95% of net sales across all 50 states; the Canada segment contributes 5% under the Wolseley brand. No single customer accounts for more than 1% of net sales.

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