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EXCExelon CorporationSell5.1·$46.41+0.42%
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Exelon Corporation (EXC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $46.41 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0.

Exelon delivers regulated electric and natural gas service through six utilities: ComEd (northern Illinois), PECO (southeastern Pennsylvania), BGE (central Maryland), Pepco (DC/Maryland), DPL (Delaware/Maryland), and ACE (southern New Jersey), serving ~10 million customers in... Read more

$46.41-1.6% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#26 of 40 Utilities - Regulated Electric
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-5.94%
IncomeYield3.64%(5y avg 3.48%)Payout59.34%sustainable
Stop $44.52Target $45.65(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$49.33+6.3%18 analysts
$45.65our TP
$46.41price
$49.33mean
$41
$58

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $46.41 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.9
P/E (Fwd)15.2
Mkt Cap$47.3B
EV/EBITDA11.9
Profit Mgn11.2%
ROE9.8%
Rev Growth7.9%
Beta0.41
Dividend3.64%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.55bullish
IV58%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.9
Revenue Growth
4.5

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.6
Support Resistance
0.6
52w Position
8.5
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $43.15Resistance $46.58

Price Targets

$45
$46
A.Upside-1.6%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EXC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $46.41 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $44.52. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EXC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $45.65 (-1.6% upside). Prior stop was $44.52. Stop-loss: $44.52.

What are the risks of investing in EXC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Weak growth.

Is EXC overvalued or undervalued?

Exelon Corporation trades at a P/E of 16.9 (forward 15.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EXC?

27 analysts cover EXC with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $49.

What does Exelon Corporation do?Exelon delivers regulated electric and natural gas service through six utilities: ComEd (northern Illinois), PECO...

Exelon delivers regulated electric and natural gas service through six utilities: ComEd (northern Illinois), PECO (southeastern Pennsylvania), BGE (central Maryland), Pepco (DC/Maryland), DPL (Delaware/Maryland), and ACE (southern New Jersey), serving ~10 million customers in aggregate. Revenue earned under cost-of-service rates approved by six separate state commissions and FERC for transmission.

Related stocks: PCG (Pacific Gas & Electric Co.) · PEG (Public Service Enterprise Group) · ELPC (Companhia Paranaense de Energia) · NEE (NextEra Energy, Inc.) · DUK (Duke Energy Corporation (Holdin)
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Latest news

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