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Exelon Corporation (EXC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $47.51 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0.

Exelon is a utility services holding company delivering electricity through ComEd (northern Illinois, 4.2M customers), PECO (southeastern Pennsylvania, 1.7M), BGE (central Maryland, 1.4M), Pepco (DC/Maryland, 1M), DPL (Delaware/Maryland, 0.6M), and ACE (southern New Jersey,... Read more

$47.51+3.5% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#32 of 38 Utilities - Regulated Electric
Stop $45.57Target $49.11(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$50.22+5.7%18 analysts
$49.11our TP
$47.51price
$50.22mean
$43
$58

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $47.51 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0. Chart setup: RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.2
P/E (Fwd)15.5
Mkt Cap$48.1B
EV/EBITDA12.0
Profit Mgn11.4%
ROE9.9%
Rev Growth-1.1%
Beta0.51
Dividend3.57%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.30bullish
IV33%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-03Item 5.02LOW
    David DeWalt appointed to Exelon Board's Talent Management and Compensation Committee and Operations, Safety, and Customer Experience Committee, effective April 27, 2026. Routine committee assignment update to prior board appointment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -1.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.1
Revenue Growth
2.2
Declining revenue: -1%

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.3
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5A.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $45.62Resistance $50.11

Price Targets

$46
$49
A.Upside+3.4%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.7% upside)
! Momentum score 2.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EXC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $47.51 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0. Chart setup: RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $45.57. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.

What is the EXC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $49.11 (+3.5% upside). Prior stop was $45.57. Stop-loss: $45.57.

What are the risks of investing in EXC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Is EXC overvalued or undervalued?

Exelon Corporation trades at a P/E of 17.2 (forward 15.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EXC?

27 analysts cover EXC with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $50.

What does Exelon Corporation do?Exelon is a utility services holding company delivering electricity through ComEd (northern Illinois, 4.2M customers),...

Exelon is a utility services holding company delivering electricity through ComEd (northern Illinois, 4.2M customers), PECO (southeastern Pennsylvania, 1.7M), BGE (central Maryland, 1.4M), Pepco (DC/Maryland, 1M), DPL (Delaware/Maryland, 0.6M), and ACE (southern New Jersey, 0.6M). Revenue is earned through state-regulated distribution rates; it does not generate electricity.

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