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Exelon Corporation (EXC) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $43.40 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4).

Exelon delivers regulated electric and natural gas service through six utilities: ComEd (northern Illinois), PECO (southeastern Pennsylvania), BGE (central Maryland), Pepco (DC/Maryland), DPL (Delaware/Maryland), and ACE (southern New Jersey), serving ~10 million customers in... Read more

$43.40+1.4% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#29 of 40 Utilities - Regulated Electric
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-6.24%
IncomeYield3.82%(5y avg 3.48%)Payout59.34%sustainable
Stop $41.99Target $44.60(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$49.56+14.2%18 analysts
$44.60our TP
$43.40price
$49.56mean
$41
$58

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $43.40 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Exelon Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Utilities): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.1
P/E (Fwd)14.5
Mkt Cap$45.0B
EV/EBITDA11.6
Profit Mgn11.2%
ROE9.8%
Rev Growth7.9%
Beta0.42
Dividend3.82%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.05bullish
IV31%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
1.2
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.3
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.9
Revenue Growth
4.5
GatesMomentum 2.0<4.5A.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $43.27Resistance $47.68

Price Targets

$42
$45
A.Upside+2.8%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.4% upside)
! Momentum score 2.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EXC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $43.40 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $41.99. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EXC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $44.60 (+1.4% upside). Prior stop was $41.99. Stop-loss: $41.99.

What are the risks of investing in EXC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0.

Is EXC overvalued or undervalued?

Exelon Corporation trades at a P/E of 16.1 (forward 14.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EXC?

27 analysts cover EXC with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $50.

What does Exelon Corporation do?Exelon delivers regulated electric and natural gas service through six utilities: ComEd (northern Illinois), PECO...

Exelon delivers regulated electric and natural gas service through six utilities: ComEd (northern Illinois), PECO (southeastern Pennsylvania), BGE (central Maryland), Pepco (DC/Maryland), DPL (Delaware/Maryland), and ACE (southern New Jersey), serving ~10 million customers in aggregate. Revenue earned under cost-of-service rates approved by six separate state commissions and FERC for transmission.

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