The company is the industry growth leader with four consecutive quarterly earnings beats and free cash flow running at 31% of revenue despite a GAAP accounting loss, but the stock trades within 1% of the analyst price ceiling, a 21% short interest creates substantial overhang, and a confirmed downtrend below the 200-day moving average limits the near-term setup quality despite strong underlying fundamentals.
Thesis pillars
- Fcf Strength Despite Gaap Loss→Stable
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- Short Interest Downtrend Overhang↑Improving
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Wait for pullback to $65.19. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross), insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $77.22. Engine's entry $65.19 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (79.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
e.l.f. Beauty sells cosmetics and skincare under five brands — e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, rhode, Naturium, and Well People — through mass, specialty, and e-commerce retailers primarily in the U.S. and internationally. The U.S. accounted for 79% of net sales in fiscal 2026... Read more
Wait for pullback to $65.19. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross), insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $77.22. Engine's entry $65.19 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (79.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/9 gates (no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.80, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS e.l.f. Beauty (NYSE:ELF) Stock Price Up 9.5% - Here's What Happened - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Co-Founder’s Priesthood Journey Renews Focus On E.l.f. Beauty’s Culture - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS ELF Stock Jumps As Earnings Beat Offsets Margin Fears - StocksToTrade — StocksToTrade positive
- NEWS 5 Must-Read Analyst Questions From e.l.f. Beauty’s Q1 Earnings Call - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS e.l.f. Beauty Announces Earnings Release Date for First Quarter Fiscal 2027 Results - Business Wire — Business Wire neutral
Generated 2026-07-26T08:02:04Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerTarget18%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customers, Target, Walmart, Amazon and Sephora, accounted for 18%, 13%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
- LOWCustomerWalmart13%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customers, Target, Walmart, Amazon and Sephora, accounted for 18%, 13%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
- LOWCustomerAmazon11%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customers, Target, Walmart, Amazon and Sephora, accounted for 18%, 13%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
- LOWCustomerSephora10%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customers, Target, Walmart, Amazon and Sephora, accounted for 18%, 13%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
- HIGHGeographicUnited States79%10-K Item 1: 'The United States accounted for 79% of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
- MEDIUMSupplierChina10-K Item 1A: 'because the majority of our products are sourced and manufactured in China, our operations are susceptible to risks inherent in doing business there'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $65.19. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross), insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $77.22. Engine's entry $65.19 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (79.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $79.87 (+3.4%), stop $57.28 (−34.8%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $79.87 (-10.8% upside). Target $79.87 (+3.4%), stop $57.28 (−34.8%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $57.28.
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (79.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation.
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. trades at a P/E of 175.8 (forward 21.1). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
21 analysts cover ELF with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $77.
What does e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. do?e.l.f. Beauty sells cosmetics and skincare under five brands — e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, rhode, Naturium, and Well...
e.l.f. Beauty sells cosmetics and skincare under five brands — e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, rhode, Naturium, and Well People — through mass, specialty, and e-commerce retailers primarily in the U.S. and internationally. The U.S. accounted for 79% of net sales in fiscal 2026 (ended March 31); Target, Walmart, Amazon, and Sephora were the four largest customers at 18%, 13%, 11%, and 10% of net sales, respectively.