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ELANElanco Animal Health IncorporatSell5.3·$24.50+0.33%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The company has delivered four consecutive quarterly earnings beats averaging a 25% positive surprise, and technical indicators confirm a constructive breakout — golden cross, RSI 60, MACD bullish — but the current price offers only 6.7% upside against materially larger downside, and the reward-to-risk ratio at approximately 0.5-to-1 falls well short of the minimum threshold needed to justify entering a new position despite the otherwise attractive fundamental signals.

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Earnings Beat StreakImproving
  • Technical Breakout ConfirmedStable
  • Short Interest OverhangStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Elanco Animal Health Incorporat (ELAN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Sell if holding. At $24.50, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6).

Elanco Animal Health develops and sells pharmaceutical and biological products for pets and farm animals across more than 90 countries, with pet health (parasiticides, dermatology, vaccines) and farm animal (antibiotics, feed additives, vaccines) as primary segments. The U.S.... Read more

QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield6.78%
Stop $22.98Target $27.16(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$31.21+27.4%14 analysts
$27.16our TP
$24.50price
$31.21mean
$34

Sell if holding. At $24.50, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6). Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Elanco Animal Health Incorporat

About Elanco Animal Health Incorporat

Elanco Animal Health's top five product families — Advantage Family, Seresto, Credelio Family, Rumensin, and Maxiban/Monteban — represented approximately 38% of total 2025 revenue, with the Advantage Family alone accounting for 10%. The U.S. generated 47% of total revenue in 2025; Brazil, the U.K., and China rank as the largest international markets. R&D expenses totaled $368 million in 2025, with Credelio Quattro launched in January 2025 and Befrena receiving USDA approval in December 2025.

Elanco earns revenue through prescription and over-the-counter products across pet health (parasiticides, dermatology, vaccines, pain management) and farm animal (medicated feed additives, injectable antibiotics, vaccines, enzymes) categories. Pet health products, including the Advantage Family and Seresto, flow primarily through third-party distributors and veterinarians, while farm animal products reach beef, dairy, pork, and poultry producers directly and through distributors. A Cencora, Inc. affiliate — the company's largest customer — contributed approximately 12% of 2025 revenue; the second-largest distributor added 7%. Elanco's 16 manufacturing sites across nine countries are supplemented by roughly 140 contract manufacturing organizations; for certain inputs, the company obtains raw materials and active pharmaceutical ingredients from only a single source. Animal-only antibiotics generated 15% of 2025 revenue, with ionophores comprising 89% of that total; shared-class antibiotics added 9%. Elanco competes primarily against Zoetis Inc., Boehringer Ingelheim Animal Health GmbH, and Merck Animal Health.

Show full overview

The Seresto flea-and-tick collar formulation patent expires in the U.S. in September 2027; European formulation patents expired in June 2025, with supplementary protection certificates extending to August 2026 in Spain, Italy, and the U.K. A competitor began selling a generic Seresto-competitive collar in the U.S. in January 2026, more than a year before relevant U.S. patent rights expire. Seresto generated approximately 70% of its annual revenue in the first half of 2025, reflecting Northern Hemisphere flea-and-tick seasonality; if generic competition intensifies, pricing and margin in this seasonal category may be impacted.

See also: Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

From Elanco Animal Health Incorporat's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202661d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)19.1
Mkt Cap$12.2B
EV/EBITDA15.8
Profit Mgn-4.0%
ROE-3.0%
Rev Growth10.2%
Beta1.69
DividendNone
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C3.17bearish
IV54%elevated
Max Pain$35+42.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 61d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $21.32Resistance $25.41

Price Targets

$23
$27
A.Upside+10.8%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (61d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ELAN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $24.50, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6). Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $22.98. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ELAN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $27.16 (+10.8% upside). Prior stop was $22.98. Stop-loss: $22.98.

What are the risks of investing in ELAN?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6).

Is ELAN overvalued or undervalued?

Elanco Animal Health Incorporat trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 19.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ELAN?

23 analysts cover ELAN with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $31.

What does Elanco Animal Health Incorporat do?Elanco Animal Health develops and sells pharmaceutical and biological products for pets and farm animals across more...

Elanco Animal Health develops and sells pharmaceutical and biological products for pets and farm animals across more than 90 countries, with pet health (parasiticides, dermatology, vaccines) and farm animal (antibiotics, feed additives, vaccines) as primary segments. The U.S. accounted for 47% of 2025 total revenue; its largest customer, a Cencora affiliate, represented approximately 12% of sales.

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