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DSGRDistribution Solutions Group, ISell4.8·$27.20+0.15%
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Distribution Solutions Group, I (DSGR) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Sell if holding. At $27.20, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

Distribution Solutions Group, Inc., a specialty distribution company, provides value-added distribution solutions to the maintenance, repair and operations (MRO), original equipment manufacturer, and industrial technology markets. It operates through four segments: Lawson,... Read more

$27.20+7.8% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#17 of 20 Industrial Distribution
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.09%
Stop $25.95Target $29.32(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$34.50+26.8%2 analysts
$29.32our TP
$27.20price
$34.50mean
$36

Sell if holding. At $27.20, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 26d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202626d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.8%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)226.7
P/E (Fwd)16.8
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA13.3
Profit Mgn0.3%
ROE0.9%
Rev Growth3.8%
Beta0.56
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

IV80%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.7
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
2.3
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2M

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.5
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
3.1
Growth Rank
3.7
Value Rank
3.8
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 26d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $26.75Resistance $28.75

Price Targets

$26
$29
A.Upside+7.8%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (26d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DSGR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $27.20, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $25.95. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DSGR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $29.32 (+7.8% upside). Prior stop was $25.95. Stop-loss: $25.95.

What are the risks of investing in DSGR?

Thin upside margin: 7.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is DSGR overvalued or undervalued?

Distribution Solutions Group, I trades at a P/E of 226.7 (forward 16.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DSGR?

9 analysts cover DSGR with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $35.

What does Distribution Solutions Group, I do?Distribution Solutions Group, Inc., a specialty distribution company, provides value-added distribution solutions to...

Distribution Solutions Group, Inc., a specialty distribution company, provides value-added distribution solutions to the maintenance, repair and operations (MRO), original equipment manufacturer, and industrial technology markets. It operates through four segments: Lawson, TestEquity, Gexpro Services, and Canada Branch Division. The Lawson segment distributes specialty products and services to the industrial, commercial, institutional, and government MRO marketplace. The TestEquity segment distributes test and measurement equipment and solutions, industrial and electronic production supplies, and vendor managed inventory programs, as well as converting, fabrication, and adhesive solutions to the aerospace and defense, wireless and communication, semiconductors, industrial electronics and automotive, and electronics manufacturing industries under the TestEquity, Hisco, Techni-Pro, Techni-Tool, and Jensen Tools brands. The Gexpro Services segment provides supply chain management solutions that offer VMI, kitting, global logistics management, manufacturing localization and import expertise, value engineering and quality assurance to renewables, industrial power, consumer and industrial, technology, transportation, and aerospace and defense. The Canada Branch Division distributes industrial MRO supplies, safety products, fasteners, power tools, and related value-add services to the industrial, government, commercial, and residential contractor markets for the Canadian MRO market. The company distributes MRO products to its customers through a network of sales representatives. It has operations in the United States, Canada, Europe, Pacific Rim, Latin America, and internationally. The company was formerly known as Lawson Products, Inc. and has changed to Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. 2022. Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1952 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.

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