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DSGRDistribution Solutions Group, IBuy Wait5.8·$34.98
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

DSGR offers an attractive valuation and strong cash conversion, but a confirmed technical downtrend, consecutive earnings misses, and a death-cross hard block currently override the fundamental case.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation Cash Conversion→Stable
  • Confirmed Technical Downtrend→Stable
  • Consecutive Earnings Misses→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 5, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Distribution Solutions Group, I (DSGR) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitGrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Earnings in 2 days (2026-11-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $34.95. Price sits above the model's entry target of $34.95; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.9% away).

Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. ("DSG"), a Delaware corporation, is a global specialty distribution company providing value-added distribution solutions to the maintenance, repair and operations ("MRO"), original equipment manufacturer ("OEM") and industrial technology... Read more

$34.98-15.0% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#6 of 19 Industrial Distribution
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.37%
Entry $34.95(support + ATR (held))Stop $34.73Analyst target $29.75(reached)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst consensus$35.00+0.1%2 analysts
Range unavailable (2 analysts)

Wait for pullback to $34.95. Price sits above the model's entry target of $34.95; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.9% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 2d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-11-02
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 20262d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.9% away)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)184.1
P/E (Fwd)19.9
Mkt Cap$1.6B
EV/EBITDA15.3
Profit Mgn0.4%
ROE1.4%
Rev Growth11.0%
Beta0.53
DividendNone
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.13bullish
IV52%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MEarnings in 2 days

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.7
Value Rank
3.4
Growth Rank
6.3
GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 2d<=7dMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.2>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
38 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $34.90Resistance $35.30

Price Targets

A.Upside-15.0%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-15.0% upside)
! Earnings in 2 days - binary event risk
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (2d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DSGR stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $34.95. Price sits above the model's entry target of $34.95; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.9% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. Analyst target $29.75 reached (−15.0%), stop $34.73 (−0.7%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DSGR stock price target?

Analyst target $29.75 reached (−15.0% from $34.98); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $29.75 reached (−15.0%), stop $34.73 (−0.7%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Stop-loss: $34.73.

What are the risks of investing in DSGR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.9% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4).

Is DSGR overvalued or undervalued?

Distribution Solutions Group, I trades at a P/E of 184.1 (forward 19.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about DSGR?

7 analysts cover DSGR with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $35.

What does Distribution Solutions Group, I do?Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. ("DSG"), a Delaware corporation, is a global specialty distribution company...

Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. ("DSG"), a Delaware corporation, is a global specialty distribution company providing value-added distribution solutions to the maintenance, repair and operations ("MRO"), original equipment manufacturer ("OEM") and industrial technology markets.

Related stocks: QXO (QXO, Inc.) · GIC (Global Industrial Company) · DNOW (DNOW Inc.) · XMTR (Xometry, Inc.) · AIT (Applied Industrial Technologies)
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