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DSGRDistribution Solutions Group, ISell5.1·$34.89+0.23%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

DSGR offers an attractive valuation and strong cash conversion, but a confirmed technical downtrend, consecutive earnings misses, and a death-cross hard block currently override the fundamental case.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation Cash ConversionImproving
  • Confirmed Technical DowntrendDeteriorating
  • Consecutive Earnings MissesImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Distribution Solutions Group, I (DSGR) Stock Analysis

SellGrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $34.89 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.5% away).

Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. ("DSG"), a Delaware corporation, is a global specialty distribution company providing value-added distribution solutions to the maintenance, repair and operations ("MRO"), original equipment manufacturer ("OEM") and industrial technology... Read more

$34.89-14.7% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#15 of 19 Industrial Distribution
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.39%
Stop $34.55Target $40.12(default +15%)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$35.00+0.3%2 analysts
Range unavailable (2 analysts)

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $34.89 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.5% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202676d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.5% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)183.2
P/E (Fwd)20.8
Mkt Cap$1.6B
EV/EBITDA15.2
Profit Mgn0.4%
ROE1.4%
Rev Growth11.0%
Beta0.55
DividendNone
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.13bullish
IV159%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
1.0
Earnings History
1.1
Earnings Timing
5.0
Estimates down -43.8% (30d)Earnings concerns: 1B/2M

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
4.1
Ma Position
9.0
Overbought (RSI 77)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.7
Value Rank
3.5
Growth Rank
6.7

Negative sentiment — recent news tone and/or analyst downgrades drag the composite below neutral.static

Erm Sentiment
0.0
Analyst Rating
5.0
Price Target
5.0
Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-43.8%)
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5A.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
77 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $34.42Resistance $35.05

Price Targets

$35
$40
A.Upside-14.7%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.7% upside)
! momentum at 2.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DSGR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $34.89 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.5% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $34.55. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DSGR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $40.12 (-14.7% upside). Prior stop was $34.55. Stop-loss: $34.55.

What are the risks of investing in DSGR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.5% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

Is DSGR overvalued or undervalued?

Distribution Solutions Group, I trades at a P/E of 183.2 (forward 20.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DSGR?

8 analysts cover DSGR with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $35.

What does Distribution Solutions Group, I do?Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. ("DSG"), a Delaware corporation, is a global specialty distribution company...

Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. ("DSG"), a Delaware corporation, is a global specialty distribution company providing value-added distribution solutions to the maintenance, repair and operations ("MRO"), original equipment manufacturer ("OEM") and industrial technology markets.

Related stocks: GIC (Global Industrial Company) · DNOW (DNOW Inc.) · XMTR (Xometry, Inc.) · DXPE (DXP Enterprises, Inc.) · MSM (MSC Industrial Direct Company, )
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