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DSGRDistribution Solutions Group, ISell4.9·$34.50-0.03%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

DSGR offers an attractive valuation and strong cash conversion, but a confirmed technical downtrend, consecutive earnings misses, and a death-cross hard block currently override the fundamental case.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation Cash ConversionStable
  • Confirmed Technical DowntrendDeteriorating
  • Consecutive Earnings MissesImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Distribution Solutions Group, I (DSGR) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $34.50 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.9% away).

Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. ("DSG"), a Delaware corporation, is a global specialty distribution company providing value-added distribution solutions to the maintenance, repair and operations ("MRO"), original equipment manufacturer ("OEM") and industrial technology... Read more

$34.50-13.8% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#16 of 19 Industrial Distribution
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.44%
Stop $32.80Target $34.13(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$35.00+1.4%2 analysts
Range unavailable (2 analysts)

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $34.50 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.9% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-24
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202612d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.9% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)287.5
P/E (Fwd)21.3
Mkt Cap$1.6B
EV/EBITDA15.5
Profit Mgn0.3%
ROE0.9%
Rev Growth3.8%
Beta0.56
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.16bullish
IV33%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
3.2
Growth Rank
3.3
Value Rank
3.4

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MEarnings in 12 days

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.5
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.4
Bollinger
1.3
52w Position
9.8
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 12d<=14d (soft)Momentum 5.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
92 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $26.60Resistance $34.83

Price Targets

$33
$34
A.Upside-13.8%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (12d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DSGR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $34.50 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.9% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $32.80. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DSGR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $34.13 (-13.8% upside). Prior stop was $32.80. Stop-loss: $32.80.

What are the risks of investing in DSGR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.9% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

Is DSGR overvalued or undervalued?

Distribution Solutions Group, I trades at a P/E of 287.5 (forward 21.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DSGR?

9 analysts cover DSGR with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $35.

What does Distribution Solutions Group, I do?Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. ("DSG"), a Delaware corporation, is a global specialty distribution company...

Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. ("DSG"), a Delaware corporation, is a global specialty distribution company providing value-added distribution solutions to the maintenance, repair and operations ("MRO"), original equipment manufacturer ("OEM") and industrial technology markets.

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